ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11201 Postby StruThiO » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:17 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11202 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:38 pm

Nino 3.4 down to +0.3C this week.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11203 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:56 pm

Similar subsurface setup to this time in 2019:
Image

Relaxed trades for the next week across the CPAC and EPAC:
Image

MJO:
After the MJO briefly re-emerges over the WPAC models differ on where it will end up. GFS has it going strong over the IO, while the Euro and CFS try to swing it back over the MC.
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11204 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:55 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11205 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:06 pm

The pattern so far does seem to want to hold on to the warm-neutral ENSO, the SOI is edging positive right now but the trades are somewhat relaxed, so we shall see what happens in the coming months. Perhaps we'll end up with another Nino fail, but with all the years of failed attempts we are bound to have something happen soon, whether La Nina forcing comes in and switches things up or El Nino forcing finally becomes stronger its anyone's guess at this point. Here are the current SST anomalies for reference...

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11206 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:41 pm

weathaguyry wrote:The pattern so far does seem to want to hold on to the warm-neutral ENSO, the SOI is edging positive right now but the trades are somewhat relaxed, so we shall see what happens in the coming months. Perhaps we'll end up with another Nino fail, but with all the years of failed attempts we are bound to have something happen soon, whether La Nina forcing comes in and switches things up or El Nino forcing finally becomes stronger its anyone's guess at this point. Here are the current SST anomalies for reference...

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2020/anomnight.1.27.2020.gif

The SOI is one of my favorite indicators but we have to incorporate in forecasts properly. Positive SOI totals in January/February are common regardless if ENSO is transitioning into El Nino or not. Historical SOI data can be found here:
https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Sea ... 89Base.txt
To get a better idea where ENSO will be for the summer,it's best to track the SOI from March to May.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11207 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:14 pm

The most recent MJO pulse was one of the strongest on record:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1222508987591118851




The suppressed phase of the MJO/CCKW will begin to move into the Pacific in a couple of days. This can open the door to enhanced trades. Long range EPS and CFS are showing hints of sustained -VP200 anomalies during February, so there likely will be another WWB sometime in February.
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1222526164926902273


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11208 Postby StruThiO » Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:42 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11209 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:20 pm

Yikes! Is early but wow.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11210 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yikes! Is early but wow.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/n6zQksK.gif[url]

Was going to bring this up last night.

It's going full super La Nina. I wonder what it's seeing? I think it may not be detecting the downwelling Kelvin wave properly and focusing on the upwelling Kelvin wave in the WPAC. Otherwise it's completely contradicting its own -VP200/MJO and 850mb wind forecasts.

Image

The low level filter on the CFS forecast shows a dashed contour line over the MC and solid contour line over the dateline persisting into spring which is resemblance of warm-neutral/weak El Nino. And for its 850mb forecast, it showsweaker than normal trades over the dateline and CPAC with a WWB to follow as we head into spring.

The Euro has a similar setup to the CFS and shows warm-neutral conditions continuing:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11211 Postby gatorcane » Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yikes! Is early but wow.

https://i.imgur.com/n6zQksK.gif


Wow thanks for posting :eek:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11212 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:15 pm

CFSv2 has been pretty awful with ENSO pre-SPB, so I wouldn't give its forecast much weight.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11213 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:03 am

Nino 3.4 is up to +0.8C due to the strong WWB's taking place there recently


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11214 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:57 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Nino 3.4 is up to +0.8C due to the strong WWB's taking place there recently


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Looks like Nino 3.4's rise is due to the strong warming over Nino 4. Nino 3 continues to be neutral. I think Nino 3 will warm up once the warmer anomalies reach the EPAC. However, stronger than average trade winds have been persistent over the EPAC probably keeping a lid on things.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11215 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:11 pm

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1224353936955596800



This is becoming a common theme now with the models showing the MJO returning over the Pacific again.

GFS as usual has the MJO much stronger over the Pacific compared to the Euro. But the MJO pulse on the Euro still looks pretty solid when looking at it from a hovmoller point of view.
Image

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11216 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:50 pm

For the ONI, NDJ came in @ +0.6C.

If the trades remain close to average across the EPAC, think we currently have enough warmth for DJF and JFM to come above +0.5C. That could make four tri-monthlies of +0.5C or above in a row.

Also the OLR (cloud coverage) anomalies for the past three months show less clouds over the MC and increased cloudiness over the dateline:

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11217 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:48 pm

Some good news:

If I'm reading the article correctly, around Hawaii, PMEL is testing out new buoys that contain new and improved technology compared to the operational buoys on the present network. Scientists are developing visualization tools and analyzing data quality. If these new buoys survive their one year deployment and the data is better or similar to the current buoys, they will begin to implement these news buoys on across the PMEL mooring network.

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/news-st ... tem-hawaii
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11218 Postby StruThiO » Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:48 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11219 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:19 am

The present downwelling Kelvin wave is expanding but is yet to move into the EPAC. Looks like it's stalling but building just off 140W. May be opening the door to cool anomalies surfacing between Nino 3.4 and Nino 3. This next WWB should help this downwelling Kelvin wave move into the EPAC. Regardless, Nino 4 continues to be warm and this week we've seen some warm anomalies surfacing off of CA and Nino 1+2 and expanding west.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11220 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:28 pm

Nino 4 is at +1.2C.
Nino 3.4 down to +0.2C this week.
Nino 3 down to 0.0C.
Nino 1+2 jumped up to +0.8C.
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