ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.5C

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11461 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:44 pm

Well latest EPS 46 day shows more support for cool-neutral rather than La Nina. Entering mid June, it shows more sinking motion over the MC, no sinking motion just east of the dateline and into the CPAC, and rising motion from 120W to the Caribbean.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11462 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:07 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11463 Postby Shell Mound » Fri May 01, 2020 4:30 am

Kingarabian wrote:Well latest EPS 46 day shows more support for cool-neutral rather than La Nina. Entering mid June, it shows more sinking motion over the MC, no sinking motion just east of the dateline and into the CPAC, and rising motion from 120W to the Caribbean.

This kind of setup is actually more akin to what one would expect in warm neutral ENSO or even weak Niño conditions, not cool neutral ENSO, much less weak Niña. The strong forcing over the EPAC is consistent with a warm pool in the region, with sinking air—and implied enhanced VWS (stronger-than-average TUTT)—predominating over the MDR and eastern Caribbean at the very least. So this kind of setup would tend to suppress overall TC activity in most of the Atlantic basin, perhaps excluding the subtropics, Gulf, and northwestern Caribbean. It would also tend to promote cooler SSTA over the MDR, given relatively higher MSLP and enhanced low-level easterlies. The strong African monsoon, of course, would tend to counteract these negatives, so perhaps one could see a year similar to 2018, but certainly nothing close to a hyperactive season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11464 Postby NotSparta » Fri May 01, 2020 6:34 am

Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Well latest EPS 46 day shows more support for cool-neutral rather than La Nina. Entering mid June, it shows more sinking motion over the MC, no sinking motion just east of the dateline and into the CPAC, and rising motion from 120W to the Caribbean.

This kind of setup is actually more akin to what one would expect in warm neutral ENSO or even weak Niño conditions, not cool neutral ENSO, much less weak Niña. The strong forcing over the EPAC is consistent with a warm pool in the region, with sinking air—and implied enhanced VWS (stronger-than-average TUTT)—predominating over the MDR and eastern Caribbean at the very least. So this kind of setup would tend to suppress overall TC activity in most of the Atlantic basin, perhaps excluding the subtropics, Gulf, and northwestern Caribbean. It would also tend to promote cooler SSTA over the MDR, given relatively higher MSLP and enhanced low-level easterlies. The strong African monsoon, of course, would tend to counteract these negatives, so perhaps one could see a year similar to 2018, but certainly nothing close to a hyperactive season.


I mean, yeah, it's still warm neutral. Cooler water is still below the surface
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11465 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 01, 2020 9:35 am

ECMWF till June 15.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11466 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 01, 2020 12:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:ECMWF till June 15.

https://i.imgur.com/ru0hFlT.jpg


Hi Luis, Looks like it has some MDR cooling to. Might not matter though with very favorable conditions plus a warm western basin.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11467 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 01, 2020 2:06 pm

Shell Mound wrote:This kind of setup is actually more akin to what one would expect in warm neutral ENSO or even weak Niño conditions, not cool neutral ENSO, much less weak Niña. The strong forcing over the EPAC is consistent with a warm pool in the region, with sinking air—and implied enhanced VWS (stronger-than-average TUTT)—predominating over the MDR and eastern Caribbean at the very least. So this kind of setup would tend to suppress overall TC activity in most of the Atlantic basin, perhaps excluding the subtropics, Gulf, and northwestern Caribbean. It would also tend to promote cooler SSTA over the MDR, given relatively higher MSLP and enhanced low-level easterlies. The strong African monsoon, of course, would tend to counteract these negatives, so perhaps one could see a year similar to 2018, but certainly nothing close to a hyperactive season.

A week or so ago you were saying La Niña, now you're leaning towards warm-neutral or El Niño? What's your reasoning behind this quick sudden 180º change?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11468 Postby JetFuel_SE » Sat May 02, 2020 5:39 am

Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Well latest EPS 46 day shows more support for cool-neutral rather than La Nina. Entering mid June, it shows more sinking motion over the MC, no sinking motion just east of the dateline and into the CPAC, and rising motion from 120W to the Caribbean.

This kind of setup is actually more akin to what one would expect in warm neutral ENSO or even weak Niño conditions, not cool neutral ENSO, much less weak Niña. The strong forcing over the EPAC is consistent with a warm pool in the region, with sinking air—and implied enhanced VWS (stronger-than-average TUTT)—predominating over the MDR and eastern Caribbean at the very least. So this kind of setup would tend to suppress overall TC activity in most of the Atlantic basin, perhaps excluding the subtropics, Gulf, and northwestern Caribbean. It would also tend to promote cooler SSTA over the MDR, given relatively higher MSLP and enhanced low-level easterlies. The strong African monsoon, of course, would tend to counteract these negatives, so perhaps one could see a year similar to 2018, but certainly nothing close to a hyperactive season.

The EPS (which is based on the ECMWF) is tends to have a warm bias when it comes to ENSO, so it showing an El Niño-like atmosphere wouldn't be too surprising either.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11469 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 02, 2020 3:18 pm

The new 46 day EPS is a bit more realistic with more sinking near the dateline. But the bulk and strongest +VP anomalies continue to be situated over the MC. The interesting feature is that the rising air branch extends from 120W in the EPAC to past the ATL MDR. We know the waters in the EPAC will very likely be cooler than at least the past two years, which would limit the amount of shear over the Caribbean by default. So from an ENSO point of view, odds continue to point towards an active season ATL hurricane seasons. The WATL isn't setting up to be prohibitive as it has been in recent years.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11470 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 03, 2020 9:30 am

Niño 3.4 is cooling right now to below +0.3C and that may be related to what GFS had that I posted of the big blue comming.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11471 Postby OURAGAN » Sun May 03, 2020 9:36 am

All el Nino values are cooling.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11472 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon May 04, 2020 7:20 am

Nino 3.4 is down to +0.4C for today's update. Looks like the predicted cooling is finally taking place


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11473 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 04, 2020 8:36 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#11474 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon May 04, 2020 9:40 am

BOM down to +0.32°C as well. The buoys show a developing tongue of cool anomalies in the Niño 3 region, and the warm subsurface anomalies have all but dissipated. The 30-day SOI average has increased to +1.6. Without any significant WWBs likely in the near future, the cooling seems likely to continue, and it may be a long time before +0.5°C is ever reached again.

However, FMA came in at +0.5°C, the fifth straight trimonthly value to reach the El Niño threshold. 2019-20 may be retroactively classified as a weak El Niño event.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#11475 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 04, 2020 9:55 am

2020 now qualifies as an El Nino year on the ONI chart.

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#11476 Postby Shell Mound » Tue May 05, 2020 6:41 am

CyclonicFury wrote:BOM down to +0.32°C as well. The buoys show a developing tongue of cool anomalies in the Niño 3 region, and the warm subsurface anomalies have all but dissipated. The 30-day SOI average has increased to +1.6. Without any significant WWBs likely in the near future, the cooling seems likely to continue, and it may be a long time before +0.5°C is ever reached again.

However, FMA came in at +0.5°C, the fifth straight trimonthly value to reach the El Niño threshold. 2019-20 may be retroactively classified as a weak El Niño event.

What is your best estimate as to the earliest we may see trimonthly ONI values (NINO 3.4) in Niña territory in 2020? Based on current trends, while there likely won’t be any significant WWBs from now on, there also doesn’t appear to be any sustained period of well-above-average trades. I still don’t see any evidence that the CFSv2 and other bullish models will verify in regard to La Niña by ASO. Cool neutral ENSO seems to be the best bet at this point. This does make a difference in terms of steering, however, since cool neutral ENSO will likely feature less of a pronounced -PDO signature than weak La Niña or stronger. This would allow for more periods of +PNA-driven ridging along the West Coast, along with troughs along the Eastern Seaboard. Combined with an active MDR, this could imply less of a risk of landfalls on the CONUS. So ENSO conditions by ASO do matter.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.4C

#11477 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 05, 2020 8:10 am

Kingarabian wrote:2020 now qualifies as an El Nino year on the ONI chart.

https://i.imgur.com/bPOff9p.png



Yeah kinda funny that it's officially an El Nino right as it dissipates.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11478 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue May 05, 2020 10:41 am

Here is the new Euro seasonal for May. Once again it trended cooler with ENSO. Quite intriguing considering it supposedly has a warm-ENSO bias.

When was the last time it showed a bona fide La Niña like this around this time of the year? 2011, maybe?
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Last edited by DorkyMcDorkface on Tue May 05, 2020 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ENSO Updates

#11479 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue May 05, 2020 10:57 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Here is the new Euro seasonal for May. Once again it trended cooler with ENSO. Quite intriguing considering it supposedly has a warm-ENSO bias.

When was the last time it showed a bona fide La Niña like this around this time of the year? 2011, maybe?

Can you repost the image? It wont open for some reason

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11480 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue May 05, 2020 11:04 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Here is the new Euro seasonal for May. Once again it trended cooler with ENSO. Quite intriguing considering it supposedly has a warm-ENSO bias.

When was the last time it showed a bona fide La Niña like this around this time of the year? 2011, maybe?

Can you repost the image? It wont open for some reason

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Should be fixed now.
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