ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11581 Postby StruThiO » Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:21 pm

GEFS showing some big time EPAC subsidence.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11582 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:24 pm

For the Atlantic specifically, wouldn't rising motion centered over Africa/Indian Ocean be a more favorable VP pattern than rising motion centered over the Maritime Continent as we typically see with La Niña events?

A major difference from the 2016 Niña is the EPAC subsidence. However, since the PDO is still relatively warm, I'm not expecting this oncoming Niña to get particularly strong.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11583 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:52 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:For the Atlantic specifically, wouldn't rising motion centered over Africa/Indian Ocean be a more favorable VP pattern than rising motion centered over the Maritime Continent as we typically see with La Niña events?

A major difference from the 2016 Niña is the EPAC subsidence. However, since the PDO is still relatively warm, I'm not expecting this oncoming Niña to get particularly strong.

All the big Atlantic seasons including 2005 and 2017 whether there was a La Nina in place or not, had dominant rising motion over the MC. Rising motion over the MC would force most of the sinking over the entire Pacific ocean and help keep the EPAC quiet. That being said, if the WATL is going to keep developing nearly every disturbance, it's not going to matter.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11584 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Jun 07, 2020 4:19 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:For the Atlantic specifically, wouldn't rising motion centered over Africa/Indian Ocean be a more favorable VP pattern than rising motion centered over the Maritime Continent as we typically see with La Niña events?

A major difference from the 2016 Niña is the EPAC subsidence. However, since the PDO is still relatively warm, I'm not expecting this oncoming Niña to get particularly strong.

All the big Atlantic seasons including 2005 and 2017 whether there was a La Nina in place or not, had dominant rising motion over the MC. Rising motion over the MC would force most of the sinking over the entire Pacific ocean and help keep the EPAC quiet. That being said, if the WATL is going to keep developing nearly every disturbance, it's not going to matter.

So you are skeptical about the prospectives of a hyperactive Atlantic season based on the ECMWF’s VP forecasts? How much weight are you giving the EC?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11585 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 07, 2020 4:33 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:For the Atlantic specifically, wouldn't rising motion centered over Africa/Indian Ocean be a more favorable VP pattern than rising motion centered over the Maritime Continent as we typically see with La Niña events?

A major difference from the 2016 Niña is the EPAC subsidence. However, since the PDO is still relatively warm, I'm not expecting this oncoming Niña to get particularly strong.

All the big Atlantic seasons including 2005 and 2017 whether there was a La Nina in place or not, had dominant rising motion over the MC. Rising motion over the MC would force most of the sinking over the entire Pacific ocean and help keep the EPAC quiet. That being said, if the WATL is going to keep developing nearly every disturbance, it's not going to matter.

So you are skeptical about the prospectives of a hyperactive Atlantic season based on the ECMWF’s VP forecasts? How much weight are you giving the EC?


I'm just pointing it out because it's pretty odd. We'll know by during August if it's to be a negative factor or not. As we've observed so far, the Atlantic been acting as if it doesn't matter. In the seasonal prediction thread I posted my numbers and they're pretty much close to hyperactive.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11586 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:10 am

This week:

Nino 1+2: -0.3C
Nino 3: -0.7C
Nino 3.4: -0.4C
Nino 4: +0.2C

1+2, 3.4 and 4 anomalously warmed 0.1C, 0.1C and 0.3C, respectively. Nino 3 anomalously cooled 0.2C and is at the lowest negative weekly since March 2018
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11587 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:29 am

This is sad, not one ECMWF ensemble member had it right on its fairly short term forecast. Why this time of the year is so bad? During late Summer into Fall it does better.

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.4C

#11588 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:15 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.4C

#11589 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:17 pm

Trade burst on the way:
Image

Also latest 30 day SOI is -2.0 but should come up soon. Atmosphere is taking its time.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11590 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:49 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11591 Postby Dean_175 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:16 pm

NDG wrote:This is sad, not one ECMWF ensemble member had it right on its fairly short term forecast. Why this time of the year is so bad? During late Summer into Fall it does better.

https://i.imgur.com/7YaUxmf.png


Spring persistence/prediction barrier for ENSO. However, as we get into summer we are leaving that. There are changes in the mean sea surface temperature in the east/central Pacific in spring (with the highest temperatures around March). The climatology is important because it determines how much the atmosphere can respond to anomalies (bigger response when mean temperatures higher) and also the configuration of the ITCZ in the Pacific. This in turn has an impact on both the predictability and persistence of ENSO at various times of the year. ENSO events have low persistence through the spring, high persistence through other parts of the year, and tend to peak between November and February.

There is a strong correlation between July and December nino3.4 temperature anomalies, however there is not really a correlation between February nino3.4 anomalies and June nino3.4 anomalies. That is the "spring persistence barrier". So that produces a problem for statistical models. Dynamical models like the EURO may also struggle predicting through spring (particularly when there is not yet a robust signal).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11592 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:36 am

Dean_175 wrote:
NDG wrote:This is sad, not one ECMWF ensemble member had it right on its fairly short term forecast. Why this time of the year is so bad? During late Summer into Fall it does better.

https://i.imgur.com/7YaUxmf.png


Spring persistence/prediction barrier for ENSO. However, as we get into summer we are leaving that. There are changes in the mean sea surface temperature in the east/central Pacific in spring (with the highest temperatures around March). The climatology is important because it determines how much the atmosphere can respond to anomalies (bigger response when mean temperatures higher) and also the configuration of the ITCZ in the Pacific. This in turn has an impact on both the predictability and persistence of ENSO at various times of the year. ENSO events have low persistence through the spring, high persistence through other parts of the year, and tend to peak between November and February.

There is a strong correlation between July and December nino3.4 temperature anomalies, however there is not really a correlation between February nino3.4 anomalies and June nino3.4 anomalies. That is the "spring persistence barrier". So that produces a problem for statistical models. Dynamical models like the EURO may also struggle predicting through spring (particularly when there is not yet a robust signal).


That "the Dynamical models like the Euro may struggle..."?

It just about struggles every year during this time of the year, with 2017 probably being its biggest bust.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11593 Postby StruThiO » Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:25 am

Apologies if it was already posted previously, but the MAM ONI was +0.3C
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Re: ENSO: CPC June update for ASO: Neutral 48% / La Niña 46% / El Niño 6%

#11594 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:45 am

CPC June update has 48% of Neutral for ASO and for La Niña 46% while El Niño at 6%.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO: CPC June update for ASO: Neutral 48% / La Niña 46% / El Niño 6%

#11595 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:04 pm

Read the ENSO Blog that has always good analysis of the CPC updates.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11596 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:50 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11597 Postby toad strangler » Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:58 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11598 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:37 am

Today's ENSO update will be:

Nino 1+2 down to -0.8C
Nino 3 down to -0.9C
Nino 3.4 down -0.6C
Nino 4 down 0.0C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11599 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:41 am

NDG wrote:Today's ENSO update will be:

Nino 1+2 down to -0.8C
Nino 3 down to -0.9C
Nino 3.4 down -0.6C
Nino 4 down 0.0C


That is La Niña territory for 3.4.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.6C

#11600 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:15 am

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