ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.6C

#11601 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:48 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.6C

#11602 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:55 pm

Are there any indicators that any of the Nino regions could warm up again? Any WWB's in the near future?


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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.6C

#11603 Postby JetFuel_SE » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:08 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Are there any indicators that any of the Nino regions could warm up again? Any WWB's in the near future?


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Sadly, no.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11604 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:05 pm

Which is the chicken and which is the egg when it comes to ENSO and AAM? Thanks for all the educational info in this thread!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11605 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:15 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Which is the chicken and which is the egg when it comes to ENSO and AAM? Thanks for all the educational info in this thread!

No one knows to be honest
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11606 Postby toad strangler » Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:02 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11607 Postby StruThiO » Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:02 am

PDO value last month was +0.09, the lowest May value since 2013. And the stretch of lowest PDO monthlies since before the +PDO flip continues.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11608 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:08 am

Interestingly, the SOI has not yet responded to the -ENSO transition. The 30-day average SOI is -6.66, and the 90-day average SOI is -3.
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2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

#11609 Postby toad strangler » Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:57 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11610 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:12 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Interestingly, the SOI has not yet responded to the -ENSO transition. The 30-day average SOI is -6.66, and the 90-day average SOI is -3.

On another note, what do you think about the fact that June dynamical models have backed away from a moderate/strong -IOD? This would imply less +VP over the Maritime Continent by ASO and thus less of a positive signal for hyperactivity in the Atlantic, given that mean forcing would be concentrated more over the Indian Ocean than the MC. This kind of pattern would also imply more sinking air over the MDR/eastern Caribbean, especially during July and the first half of August, before Niña-type background state “kicks in” by the end of the month and later. For example, despite showing a stronger Niña vs. its May run, the June NMME has made a decent shift toward a weaker -PDO/stronger +PMM. This could imply stronger VWS over the Caribbean/MDR as well as periods of sinking air, especially given the notable trend toward a weaker -IOD signature. Also, the cold pool in the Gulf of Guinea is less pronounced in the latest NMME run, meaning more of a cap on strong African waves. All these indicators suggest less of a Niña-type atmospheric regime over the Caribbean/MDR than previously forecast, which is interesting in light of the fact that the latest run shows a stronger Pacific Niña along the equator.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11611 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:54 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Interestingly, the SOI has not yet responded to the -ENSO transition. The 30-day average SOI is -6.66, and the 90-day average SOI is -3.

Not surprising when you look at the current and near future -VP200 anomaly configuration. This continues the notion that this event will be a gradual one, similar to 2017s. June 2017 had a -SOI as well.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11612 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:19 pm

The effects of volcanic eruption on ENSO. Seen this question on here before and there's been some published research:
https://www.hawaii.edu/news/2020/06/19/volcano-el-nino/
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11613 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:24 am

The 30 day SOI keeps dipping now at -7.7. Are we sure is only a slow transition to La Niña or there is something more? I ask because is a big SOI drop and also the 4 Niño areas are going up. At this pace there will not be a weak La Niña for ASO.

From BoM:

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11614 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 20, 2020 3:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 30 day SOI keeps dipping now at -7.7. Are we sure is only a slow transition to La Niña or there is something more? I ask because is a big SOI drop and also the 4 Niño areas are going up. At this pace there will not be a weak La Niña for ASO.

From BoM:

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.


[url]https://i.imgur.com/YmiO8V1.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/L9wwRPn.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/kngKXMQ.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/XLT383F.png[url]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/HEl9qw2.png[url]


This was never going to be a 2010-esque event where everything snowballs into La Nina. It's a slow process. Fluctuations are normal. It's normal for the SOI to be occasionally negative during the early stages of a weak La Nina event (see 2017).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11615 Postby Visioen » Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 30 day SOI keeps dipping now at -7.7. Are we sure is only a slow transition to La Niña or there is something more? I ask because is a big SOI drop and also the 4 Niño areas are going up. At this pace there will not be a weak La Niña for ASO.

From BoM:

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.


https://i.imgur.com/YmiO8V1.png

https://i.imgur.com/L9wwRPn.png

https://i.imgur.com/kngKXMQ.png

https://i.imgur.com/XLT383F.png

https://i.imgur.com/HEl9qw2.png

Apart from maybe Nino 4, the overall trend still looks the right direction to me. Also if it just keeps fluctuating we could easily end up cool neutral.
The current SOI is rather interesting but my knowledge on that is limited.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11616 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:05 pm

30 day SOI latest is sinking from -7.7 to -9.1.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11617 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:17 pm

Dumb question, but what is SOI and what does it mean in the context of Atlantic hurricane season activity?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11618 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:35 pm

aspen wrote:Dumb question, but what is SOI and what does it mean in the context of Atlantic hurricane season activity?
Its the difference of the pressure readings over Darwin Australia and Tahiti.
Not much effects on the Atlantic hurricane season. Maybe indirect effects? It has more effects on CONUS winter. A 90 day SOI +/- 8 means present El Nino or La Nina conditions. A 30 day SOI +/- 8 usually means a present active or in active intra-seasonal signal over the WPAC and Dateline (MJO/CCKW). However the 30 day SOI can be noisy and show illusions of an inactive or active phase.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11619 Postby Visioen » Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:41 am

Kingarabian wrote:
aspen wrote:Dumb question, but what is SOI and what does it mean in the context of Atlantic hurricane season activity?
Its the difference of the pressure readings over Darwin Australia and Tahiti.
Not much effects on the Atlantic hurricane season. Maybe indirect effects? It has more effects on CONUS winter. A 90 day SOI +/- 8 means present El Nino or La Nina conditions. A 30 day SOI +/- 8 usually means a present active or in active intra-seasonal signal over the WPAC and Dateline (MJO/CCKW). However the 30 day SOI can be noisy and show illusions of an inactive or active phase.

And this means the current value of -9.1 would be more indicative of El Nino then La Nina, which could raises some questions about the current ENSO forecast.
As for the Atlantic hurricane season, it is known that El Nino suppresses tc development.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ane-season
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11620 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:16 pm

Visioen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
aspen wrote:Dumb question, but what is SOI and what does it mean in the context of Atlantic hurricane season activity?
Its the difference of the pressure readings over Darwin Australia and Tahiti.
Not much effects on the Atlantic hurricane season. Maybe indirect effects? It has more effects on CONUS winter. A 90 day SOI +/- 8 means present El Nino or La Nina conditions. A 30 day SOI +/- 8 usually means a present active or in active intra-seasonal signal over the WPAC and Dateline (MJO/CCKW). However the 30 day SOI can be noisy and show illusions of an inactive or active phase.

And this means the current value of -9.1 would be more indicative of El Nino then La Nina, which could raises some questions about the current ENSO forecast.
As for the Atlantic hurricane season, it is known that El Nino suppresses tc development.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ane-season

The present -9.1 value is the 30 day calculation. The 90 day SOI is the El Nino or La Nina indicator to monitor. Right now it's at a -3.34, or in neutral territory. It's been obvious that the atmosphere is lagging behind the ocean in terms of La Nina. But IMO it'll eventually get there. In regards to Atlantic hurricane development, the hardest hitting Atlantic hurricane seasons have generally been when ENSO was in a state of weak La Nina or cool neutral by ASO. Which is what's currently happening.
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