ENSO Updates

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Visioen
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11621 Postby Visioen » Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Visioen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote: Its the difference of the pressure readings over Darwin Australia and Tahiti.
Not much effects on the Atlantic hurricane season. Maybe indirect effects? It has more effects on CONUS winter. A 90 day SOI +/- 8 means present El Nino or La Nina conditions. A 30 day SOI +/- 8 usually means a present active or in active intra-seasonal signal over the WPAC and Dateline (MJO/CCKW). However the 30 day SOI can be noisy and show illusions of an inactive or active phase.

And this means the current value of -9.1 would be more indicative of El Nino then La Nina, which could raises some questions about the current ENSO forecast.
As for the Atlantic hurricane season, it is known that El Nino suppresses tc development.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ane-season

The present -9.1 value is the 30 day calculation. The 90 day SOI is the El Nino or La Nina indicator to monitor. Right now it's at a -3.34, or in neutral territory. It's been obvious that the atmosphere is lagging behind the ocean in terms of La Nina. But IMO it'll eventually get there. In regards to Atlantic hurricane development, the hardest hitting Atlantic hurricane seasons have generally been when ENSO was in a state of weak La Nina or cool neutral by ASO. Which is what's currently happening.

Thanks for the correction and clarification.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11622 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:28 am

All ENSO Regions warmed up last week. This will be today's update:

Nino 1+2 up to -0.5C
Nino 3 up to -0.7C
Nino 3.4 up to -0.4C
Nino 4 up to +0.2C
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly Update= Niño 3.4 up to -0.4C

#11623 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:33 am

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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM Update issues La Niña Watch

#11624 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:26 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11625 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:58 am

Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11626 Postby aspen » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:00 am

cycloneye wrote:Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

https://i.imgur.com/j9G2IWf.png

Why is Niño 3.4 warming so much? The equatorial Pacific is still cooler than average, and I haven’t heard of the same mechanisms that caused the previous warming spike.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11627 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:09 am

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

https://i.imgur.com/j9G2IWf.png

Why is Niño 3.4 warming so much? The equatorial Pacific is still cooler than average, and I haven’t heard of the same mechanisms that caused the previous warming spike.


I dont know a lot about the Kelvin Waves, MJO, IOD etc so I will punt to those who know more that do good discussions in this thread.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11628 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:19 am

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

https://i.imgur.com/j9G2IWf.png

Why is Niño 3.4 warming so much? The equatorial Pacific is still cooler than average, and I haven’t heard of the same mechanisms that caused the previous warming spike.


I was about to pose the same question. Perhaps Kingarabian can chime in. He is one of the best we have at Storm2K about Enso details


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11629 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:40 am

Looks to me that the cooler portion of this ENSO event is yet to happen. Looks like late July into October?

 http://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1274693635875975170


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11630 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:37 pm

toad strangler wrote:Looks to me that the cooler portion of this ENSO event is yet to happen. Looks like late July into October?

http://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1274693635875975170?s=20

La Nina's usually peak around early winter while El Nino's usually peak just before the start of spring.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11631 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:13 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

https://i.imgur.com/j9G2IWf.png

Why is Niño 3.4 warming so much? The equatorial Pacific is still cooler than average, and I haven’t heard of the same mechanisms that caused the previous warming spike.


I was about to pose the same question. Perhaps Kingarabian can chime in. He is one of the best we have at Storm2K about Enso details


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Passage of the MJO/CCKW over the region?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11632 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:39 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

https://i.imgur.com/j9G2IWf.png

Why is Niño 3.4 warming so much? The equatorial Pacific is still cooler than average, and I haven’t heard of the same mechanisms that caused the previous warming spike.


I was about to pose the same question. Perhaps Kingarabian can chime in. He is one of the best we have at Storm2K about Enso details


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It's due to a prolonged period of generally relaxed trades and the upcoming trade burst seems to be centered well west of the dateline:
Image

Nino 3.4 is the barometer that the CPC/BOM use to gauge where ENSO is leaning towards El Nino or La Nina or Neutral. During moderate or strong El Nino or La Nina events, Nino 3.4 is pretty stable and will reflect current conditions. When it's cool-neutral or warm-neutral, Nino 3.4 can become noisy and intraseasonal variability effects it more (which is what's happening as Yellow Evan posted).

But the main regions that have direct impact towards the Atlantic hurricane season are Nino 3 and Nino 1+2. Both regions remain quite negative and that's all that matters.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11633 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:16 pm

Kingarabian ,the trade winds are still relaxed as Niño 3.4 keeps warming almost at 0.0C.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11634 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian ,the trade winds are still relaxed as Niño 3.4 keeps warming almost at 0.0C.


Can you provide an update on Nino 3 and Nino 1+2?


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11635 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian ,the trade winds are still relaxed as Niño 3.4 keeps warming almost at 0.0C.

The recent 850mb wind forecasts show a favorable setup that in theory should keep Nino 3.4 cool. Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 may warm up a bit this week due to the lingering MJO/CCKW enhancing westerly anomalies. But the overall ENSO setup is still similar to 2005 and 2017. ENSO is a longterm oscillation so we shouldn't worry about weekly noise. ENSO's status for ASO will be at least cool neutral through ASO. There's enough cool subsurface water to support it.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11636 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:22 am

Last week warming continued across central Nino Regions, this is today's update:

Nino 1+2 down to -0.8C
Nino 3 up to -0.4C
Nino 3.4 up to +0.1C
Nino 4 up to +0.5C
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to warm neutral at +0.1C

#11637 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 am

New week and keeps warming. Last week's CPC had it at -0.4C and today is at +0.1C and that is a rapid rise in only one week. Now what?

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11638 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:13 pm

The thread has turned inactive since Monday so I ask the members who always post good analysis about ENSO what is the latest about the trade winds, Kelvin Waves, MJO?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11639 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:17 pm

The GFS shows strong trades west of the Dateline, with relaxed trades east of the Dateline. I do not think we will see much additional warming, if any at all. The SOI may be negative, but the recent global velocity potential pattern of sinking near the Dateline does not resemble El Niño. By fall, we should be somewhere between cool neutral and weak La Niña.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to warm neutral at +0.1C

#11640 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:New week and keeps warming. Last week's CPC had it at -0.4C and today is at +0.1C and that is a rapid rise in only one week. Now what?

https://i.imgur.com/3LoDk8w.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/1Q7SUFr.jpg

Anything from a surprise warm-neutral/weak El Niño (kind of an opposite-2017), to a rapid cooling starting sometime in the next few weeks and a return to the scheduled cool-neutral trend. Both options are on the table at this point, although I don’t know how likely it would be for the ENSO to suddenly start going to El Niño this abruptly, especially with everything going against that possibility.
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