ENSO Updates: CPC monthly update: 60% of La Niña by the fall

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11641 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:15 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:The GFS shows strong trades west of the Dateline, with relaxed trades east of the Dateline. I do not think we will see much additional warming, if any at all. The SOI may be negative, but the recent global velocity potential pattern of sinking near the Dateline does not resemble El Niño. By fall, we should be somewhere between cool neutral and weak La Niña.


Yeah it's a cool-neutral atmospheric pattern. Hence the mixed signals.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11642 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:38 pm

Two things occurring on the latest GFS 850mb zonal wind forecast:

The red circle shows very weak trades for the next week over Nino 3.4, Nino3, and Nino 1+2. This will keep the anomalies in these regions level.

The blue circle show a strong trade burst west of the dateline and that should trigger another upwelling Kelvin wave, which will send cool anomalies to the EPAC and keep the subsurface (and eventually the surface) temperatures cool for ASO.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11643 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:00 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11644 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:06 am

All ENSO regions cooled down last week.

Nino 1+2 down to -1.1C
Nino 3 down to -0.5C
Nino 3.4 down to -0.1C
Nino 4 down to +0.3C
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.1C

#11645 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:30 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.1C

#11646 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:34 pm

AMJ came in at 0.0°C.
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: Issues La Niña Watch

#11647 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:20 am

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 July 2020

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance).

During June 2020, sea surface temperatures (SST) were near average in the east-central equatorial Pacific and below average in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. The Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 indices were near zero during the latest week, while the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices were negative [Fig. 2]. Negative equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) weakened from May through June [Fig. 3]. However, below-average subsurface temperatures continued in the eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Also during the month, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across the east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over parts of the far western and eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system is consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] are roughly split between La Niña and ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the fall and winter. Based largely on dynamical model guidance, the forecaster consensus slightly favors La Niña development during the August-October season, and then lasting through the remainder of 2020. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml


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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: Issues La Niña Watch: ASO= La Niña 50% / Neutral 47% / El Niño 3%

#11648 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:02 pm

Analysis of the July update below.

ENSO BLOG
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11649 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Two things occurring on the latest GFS 850mb zonal wind forecast:

The red circle shows very weak trades for the next week over Nino 3.4, Nino3, and Nino 1+2. This will keep the anomalies in these regions level.

The blue circle show a strong trade burst west of the dateline and that should trigger another upwelling Kelvin wave, which will send cool anomalies to the EPAC and keep the subsurface (and eventually the surface) temperatures cool for ASO.

https://i.imgur.com/t8mB9cb.png


What is the latest about the trade burst? I ask because of this.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11650 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 10, 2020 5:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Two things occurring on the latest GFS 850mb zonal wind forecast:

The red circle shows very weak trades for the next week over Nino 3.4, Nino3, and Nino 1+2. This will keep the anomalies in these regions level.

The blue circle show a strong trade burst west of the dateline and that should trigger another upwelling Kelvin wave, which will send cool anomalies to the EPAC and keep the subsurface (and eventually the surface) temperatures cool for ASO.

https://i.imgur.com/t8mB9cb.png


What is the latest about the trade burst? I ask because of this.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/SmM1xS9.jpg[url]

This is completely normal as ENSO is in a cool-neutral phase. Does not mean much in the grand scheme of things.

Trades are set to be in control of the EPAC soon:
Image

At the same time the strong trade burst over the WPAC is re-fueling the subsurface with cool anomalies so as we enter ASO, the Nino regions should be by average, in negative territory.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#11651 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:31 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#11652 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:00 pm

What's with this 3.4 and subsurface warming in spite of the trades? With the eastern ENSO regions remaining cool, I wonder if 2020 might be throwing a surprise Modoki El Nino at us.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#11653 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:50 pm

What is this warming about at the subsurface? I see +2.0C down there. I thought the trades were going to cool things.

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#11654 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:48 am

cycloneye wrote:What is this warming about at the subsurface? I see +2.0C down there. I thought the trades were going to cool things.

https://i.imgur.com/O47caIK.gif

Looks like the recent warming we've been seeing in the ENSO regions might have been spurred by a series of weak westerlies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However this next trade burst looks very expansive and will likely cool things back down.
Image

In addition to this, it's quite clear that the Walker Circulation is coupled with -ENSO/La Niña. You don't get this sort of widespread anomalous sinking in the Pacific/rising in the IO with +ENSO. Unless we get some sort of unexpected 2006-esque reversal (very unlikely at the moment) ENSO looks to remain in the negative range for the foreseeable future. I'm using the AMJ trimonthly period because this is when SSTs really began to tank, and the atmosphere has clearly responded accordingly within that timeframe.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#11655 Postby StruThiO » Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:30 pm

PDO dropped a miniscule amount in June. Essentially tied with June 2018, interestingly

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11656 Postby StruThiO » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:30 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11657 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:34 pm


This cool ENSO is progressing as expected. There is some lingering subsrface warmth that developed in the past couple of weeks due to the relaxed trade. But it's minor and not an actual downwelling KW so effects will be minimal at the subsurface but don't be surprised to see fluctuations. Nino 1+2 and Nino 3, the two main regions that correlate with Atlantic activity remain very cool.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11658 Postby Visioen » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:47 pm

It has begun.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11659 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:47 am

This week's update:

Nino 1+2 down to -1.5C
Nino 3 down to -0.6C
Nino 3.4 down to -0.2C
Nino 4 down to 0.0C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11660 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:19 am

This week's update:

Nino 1+2 -1.2C
Nino 3 -0.5C
Nino 3.4 -0.4C
Nino 4 -0.1C
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