EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 July 2020
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance).
During June 2020, sea surface temperatures (SST) were near average in the east-central equatorial Pacific and below average in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. The Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 indices were near zero during the latest week, while the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices were negative [Fig. 2]. Negative equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) weakened from May through June [Fig. 3]. However, below-average subsurface temperatures continued in the eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Also during the month, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across the east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over parts of the far western and eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system is consistent with ENSO-neutral.
The models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] are roughly split between La Niña and ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the fall and winter. Based largely on dynamical model guidance, the forecaster consensus slightly favors La Niña development during the August-October season, and then lasting through the remainder of 2020. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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