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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO: CPC November update= 65% chance of La Niña extending thru May

#11721 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:58 am

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 November 2020

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March) and into spring 2021 (~65% chance during March-May).

La Niña strengthened during October, as indicated by well below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from the Date Line to the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The SST indices in the two westernmost Niño regions, Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 cooled further from last month, and the Niño-3.4 index was -1.5°C in the past week [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged from 180°-100°W) also became colder [Fig. 3], and continue to reflect below-average temperatures from the surface to 200m depth in the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with La Niña. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly across most of the tropical Pacific and strengthened during October. Upper-level westerly wind anomalies expanded over most of the tropical Pacific. Tropical convection continued to be suppressed from the western Pacific to the Date Line, and enhanced convection remained over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Also, both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicates the continuation of La Niña.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña (Niño-3.4 index less than -0.5°C) to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 and to weaken during the spring [Fig. 6]. The latest forecasts from several models suggest the possibility of a strong La Niña (Niño-3.4 index values at -1.5°C) during the peak November-January season. The forecaster consensus supports that view in light of significant atmosphere-ocean coupling already in place. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance for January-March) and spring 2021 (~65% chance for March-May; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO: CPC November update= 65% chance of La Niña extending thru May

#11722 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:37 pm

I think the 2021 hurricane forecasts will be in two camps. One group thinking this is like 1886-87 with two crazy seasons in a row, perhaps even a "never ending" hurricane season like the WPAC sees. Another group will probably link 2020 to 2005 and use 2006 as an analog.
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Re: ENSO: CPC November update= 65% chance of La Niña extending thru May

#11723 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:49 pm

I do occasionally wonder about the 2006 analog, but we will see. Next year's name list actually hasn't had the best luck for the most part. Only in 2003 did we get decently far down that list. Of course it's probably more coincidental than anything else. And 1985 and 1979 made up for it in other ways.
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Re: ENSO: CPC November update= 65% chance of La Niña extending thru May

#11724 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:55 pm

AnnularCane wrote:I do occasionally wonder about the 2006 analog, but we will see. Next year's name list actually hasn't had the best luck for the most part. Only in 2003 did we get decently far down that list. Of course it's probably more coincidental than anything else. And 1985 and 1979 made up for it in other ways.

Well this year's list didn't have a whole lot of big years either until 2020... But I think if the La Niña continues into next year the active streak could continue... Likely not into Greeks (or hopefully a new format for naming extra storms) though
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Re: ENSO: CPC November update= 65% chance of La Niña extending thru May

#11725 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 November 2020

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March) and into spring 2021 (~65% chance during March-May).

La Niña strengthened during October, as indicated by well below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from the Date Line to the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The SST indices in the two westernmost Niño regions, Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 cooled further from last month, and the Niño-3.4 index was -1.5°C in the past week [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged from 180°-100°W) also became colder [Fig. 3], and continue to reflect below-average temperatures from the surface to 200m depth in the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with La Niña. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly across most of the tropical Pacific and strengthened during October. Upper-level westerly wind anomalies expanded over most of the tropical Pacific. Tropical convection continued to be suppressed from the western Pacific to the Date Line, and enhanced convection remained over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Also, both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicates the continuation of La Niña.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña (Niño-3.4 index less than -0.5°C) to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 and to weaken during the spring [Fig. 6]. The latest forecasts from several models suggest the possibility of a strong La Niña (Niño-3.4 index values at -1.5°C) during the peak November-January season. The forecaster consensus supports that view in light of significant atmosphere-ocean coupling already in place. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance for January-March) and spring 2021 (~65% chance for March-May; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

https://i.imgur.com/QndrM26.png



I have ENSO slipping back into cool neutral by spring with some uncertainty entering May and June -- especially if there's a January/February WWB that creeps close to the dateline. If ENSO becomes tilted close to cool neutral territory by mid June, I would then switch to a call for cool neutral/La Nina for the 2021 hurricane season since trades dominate the equator near the dateline during this time.

Remember 2006 switched to warm neutral at the last minute.
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Re: ENSO: CPC November update= 65% chance of La Niña extending thru May

#11726 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:21 pm

Another impressive dateline trade burst on the latest GFS:
Image

The La Nina is pretty robust and shows no signs of slowing down compared to the 2017 event. CFS has a prevailing rising branch between the IO and MC and a strong sinking branch over the dateline to the EPAC.

Only odd thing is the lack of a cold/negative PDO. I don't think we've ever seen a La Nina this strong with a PDO leaning warm/positive.

Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC November update= 65% chance of La Niña extending thru May

#11727 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:25 pm

Kingarabian how was ENSO on November of 2017?
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Re: ENSO: CPC November update= 65% chance of La Niña extending thru May

#11728 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian how was ENSO on November of 2017?


The Nino regions for 2020 are running much cooler compared to 2017 up to November.

Subsurface heat anomalies look the same while 2017 also had a cooler PDO.

Image
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11729 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Nov 20, 2020 11:18 pm

Looking at the subsurface, since the summer there has been downwelling Kelvin waves developing but getting shunted before reaching the dateline. That's due to the prolonged strong trades near the dateline. Have to watch and see what happens in December and January, if trades can slow down and this ample amount of subsurface warmth can breach 180 and get to the CPAC.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11730 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:48 am

What impact would a transition to cool neutral ENSO from a weak/moderate La Niña over the next few months have on weather in the NE US? And is there a chance of a transition to warm neutral or El Niño like 2005-06?
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