ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11761 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:54 pm

Models coming into good agreement and show the MJO becoming active over the WPAC by the end of the month. Different models show different amplitude, but the stronger it is the more "consequential" it will be for ENSO. Regardless of strength, in the near future it'll start the transition out of La Nina and into cool-neutral. Maybe warm-neutral if it's strong enough. Regardless, the odds are still considerably in the favor of things returning back to La Nina by the summer.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11762 Postby NDG » Wed Jan 20, 2021 10:08 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11763 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 20, 2021 6:05 pm



Whatever it is, it's reflecting on RMM and the end result per the long range CFS will be a significant relaxation of the trades over the dateline beginning in mid February.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11764 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:42 pm

As the CPC said back in the spring of 2020, the latest ONI chart update shows that 2020's original FMA value of +0.5C goes down to +0.4C. So that means there were no 5 tri-monthlies back to back that were +0.5C or higher and per the ONI table rules, that means no El Nino for the winter of 2019-2020. It is what it is but IMO, a weak El Nino was present at that time with sufficient support from the atmosphere and the ocean.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11765 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:53 am

I don't like the arbitrary five consecutive trimonthlies coming from one specific region of the equatorial pacific being the basis for an official el nino or not. ENSO events come in all sorts of flavors
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11766 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:27 am

weeniepatrol wrote:I don't like the arbitrary five consecutive trimonthlies coming from one specific region of the equatorial pacific being the basis for an official el nino or not. ENSO events come in all sorts of flavors


Yes, some examples of various forms of El Nino I can think of include a Modoki El Nino like in 2004 where the Central Pacific is anomalously warm but the extreme EPAC is much cooler than normal, a super El Nino like in 1982, 1997, and 2015 where nearly all of the equatorial Pacific is way above average, a coastal El Nino like in the beginning parts of 2017 where the equatorial waters near Western South America is anomalously warm, and of course your typical weak and moderate El Ninos. And what I think is even more important is not every El Nino will correspond with an inactive and weak Atlantic. We definitely saw this with 1969, 2004, and to a certain degree 2018 and 2019.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11767 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:08 pm

Models still show this MJO pulse lingering over the entire Pacific throughout the remainder of their forecast period. You can see how the signal bounces around phase 7 and phase 8 so it's not a clear cut traditional MJO event and there other things at play.
Image


But the longer this pulse remains somewhere over the Pacific it will be consequential for ENSO. For example, the Euro compared to its previous 850mb wind forecasts, has adjusted to show a brief but near moderate strength WWB over the dateline.
Image

It's not going to mean much but it shows that a shift towards ENSO neutral is probably happening soon.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11768 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:08 am

Image

according to CFS, la nina never terminates and eventually begins restrengthening by summer
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11769 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:39 pm

What you can bet is that if La Nina is in full force or even cool neutral by June 1, you're going to see a much earlier and stronger start to hurricane season. July 2020 we were still at neutral and it didn't get cranking until later.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11770 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:23 pm

Based on the recent CFV2 sst anomalies outlook, I wonder if we are in for a prolonged and robust La Nina episode, kind of like what we saw in the mid 50s, early to mid 70s, late 90s, and early 2010s.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11771 Postby TROPICALCYCLONEALERT » Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:01 pm

It's pretty interesting how the large scale cold anomalies associated with this -ENSO event have generally shifted west over the last few months.
Image

This is pretty consistent with the ongoing development of both a -NPMM and -PDO, which favor enhanced trade winds in the Central Pacific rather than further East. While it is true that the anomalies themselves are weaker, their areal coverage is larger. All of this indicates that the ENSO event is in it's mature phases. Recently, the subsurface was also somewhat invigorated by a long lasting bust of easterlies near the dateline (again, consistent with the development of a CP Nina). Unlike their warm counterparts, these events make up most stronger -ENSO events, presumably because of the North Pacific coupling.
Image

As long as we have blocking in the NPAC, this cooling should continue. What remains to be seen (and would likely make or break any pre-emptive ENSO forecasts) is whether or not we have enough EWB's from intraseasonal variability. Personally, I'd guess anomalies slowly weaken going into summer, leaving us in cool neutral territory, though again this is dependent on the aforementioned easterlies.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11772 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:35 pm

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1351898667758850048




Since this tweet where Eric Webb showed how this MJO/Kelvin event over the Pacific was very disorganized, the Euro and CFS have adjusted their VP200 forecasts to fit a more classic progression.
Euro (visit www.Weathermodels.com for more):
Image
CFS:
Image

In theory, this would result in increasingly relaxed trades or at times moderate strengthed westerly winds:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11773 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:07 am

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1 ... 7349523461

According to Alex Boreham it looks like there may be a clearer and more compelling reason to believe 2021 is likely not going to feature an El Nino and therefore increase the risk of an active Atlantic with all else being equal
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11774 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:46 pm

Image

the destructive interference appears to be over and la nina-enhanced basin wide trades are returning
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11775 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:11 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:https://i.imgur.com/G4atcUy.png

the destructive interference appears to be over and la nina-enhanced basin wide trades are returning


It's going to seesaw back and forth. The Euro and CFS show the CPAC and EPAC being largely devoid of above average trades starting February 10 into March. We'll see if this actually happens. The current long range CFS forecast also shows any future trade bursts will be west of the dateline through April which will allow for Nino 3.4, Nino 3, and Nino 1+2 to warm up. I think it's inevitable that we're heading back to ENSO neutral before it likely shifts back to cool neutral and La Nina by the early summer.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11776 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:17 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1355891357349523461

According to Alex Boreham it looks like there may be a clearer and more compelling reason to believe 2021 is likely not going to feature an El Nino and therefore increase the risk of an active Atlantic with all else being equal

Good points. It is the best bet. Only note I have to make is that the PDO continues to be much warmer than it was in 2012 and just about the same in 2017.

Long range Euro VP 200 forecast shows the La Nina atmosphere setup returning by March:
Image

www.weathermodels.com for more :uarrow:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11777 Postby NotSparta » Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:31 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1355891357349523461

According to Alex Boreham it looks like there may be a clearer and more compelling reason to believe 2021 is likely not going to feature an El Nino and therefore increase the risk of an active Atlantic with all else being equal

Good points. It is the best bet. Only note I have to make is that the PDO continues to be much warmer than it was in 2012 and just about the same in 2017.

Long range Euro VP 200 forecast shows the La Nina atmosphere setup returning by March:
https://i.postimg.cc/3JnkzvYp/image.png

http://www.weathermodels.com for more :uarrow:


Yeah, I'm not sure how important the PDO is here (except in modulating the PMM), but that cold west & warm east, after promoting neutral conditions, probably would block progression towards El Niño. Only February and it already seems that this SPB will be a lot less of a mystery. Sure, El Niño is possible though. Just probably the least likely state at this point
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11778 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:39 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1355891357349523461

According to Alex Boreham it looks like there may be a clearer and more compelling reason to believe 2021 is likely not going to feature an El Nino and therefore increase the risk of an active Atlantic with all else being equal

Good points. It is the best bet. Only note I have to make is that the PDO continues to be much warmer than it was in 2012 and just about the same in 2017.

Long range Euro VP 200 forecast shows the La Nina atmosphere setup returning by March:
https://i.postimg.cc/3JnkzvYp/image.png

http://www.weathermodels.com for more :uarrow:


Yeah, I'm not sure how important the PDO is here (except in modulating the PMM), but that cold west & warm east, after promoting neutral conditions, probably would block progression towards El Niño. Only February and it already seems that this SPB will be a lot less of a mystery. Sure, El Niño is possible though. Just probably the least likely state at this point


The PDO is a long term variable. I think if its in a prolonged cold phase it's easier to get La Nina/cool-neutral compared to El Nino/warm-neutral and vice versa. i think this current prolonged warm PDO phase started in the winter of 2013 and with it still around it keeps the warm ENSO phase a possibility. But I do agree the odds for El Nino or even warm neutral are very low for the 2021 Hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11779 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:11 pm

Euro may be showing its natural warm bias again but the MEAN looks realistic IMO. The mean favors a warm up to neutral levels and then dipping back negative entering JJA.
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11780 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:15 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Euro may be showing its natural warm bias again but the MEAN looks realistic IMO. The mean favors a warm up to neutral levels and then dipping back negative entering JJA.
https://i.postimg.cc/bwqcFbRK/ezgif-7-b8432b1ccfbe.gif

In this scenario of a slowly warming ENSO that peaks at neutral by April-June before starting to cool again, would the atmosphere switch out of a La Niña state, or will a La Niña state (or a similar state) continue without interruption as the ENSO cools off again?
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