ENSO Updates

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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11821 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Mar 19, 2021 5:54 pm

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1372988163719716865

According to Phil Klotzbach, a neutral pattern or very weak Nina is predicted by most guidances
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11822 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:44 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1372988163719716865

According to Phil Klotzbach, a neutral pattern or very weak Nina is predicted by most guidances

Yeah that sounds about right from the models. We're not going to see any big shifts towards La Nina or warm neutral until May.

This is also another good graph to see what the more reliable models are showing. Image is from the BOM:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-sum ... ific-Ocean

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11823 Postby tolakram » Fri Mar 19, 2021 8:40 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1372988163719716865

According to Phil Klotzbach, a neutral pattern or very weak Nina is predicted by most guidances


Guidance which, at this point in the year, has near negative skill. :) Honestly I don't know the skill number but it's really low. This is the fun part of the year where it looks like we are getting clues, and then bam, it goes in the other direction. Or, sometimes it doesn't and the clues end up being right.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11824 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:08 pm

tolakram wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1372988163719716865

According to Phil Klotzbach, a neutral pattern or very weak Nina is predicted by most guidances


Guidance which, at this point in the year, has near negative skill. :) Honestly I don't know the skill number but it's really low. This is the fun part of the year where it looks like we are getting clues, and then bam, it goes in the other direction. Or, sometimes it doesn't and the clues end up being right.


You know, I'm from the Weather Underground community, and we have a bit of an inside joke concerning a specific user's catchphrase that I feel is an appropriate response to the ambiguity of the Spring Predictability Barrier:

"Maybe, maybe not. We shall see..."
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11825 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Mar 19, 2021 11:17 pm

Now of course I am definitely not trying to conclude or generalize anything, but it seems like at least in recent years (since 2015) El Nino years have still coincided with the Atlantic producing at least one very powerful, high end Cat 4 or a Cat 5 storm. Example: Joaquin back in 2015, Florence in 2018, Michael in 2018, Dorian in 2019, and Lorenzo in 2019. And in 2018 and 2019 especially, the total number of storms was 15 and 18 respectively, which is pretty high. So I wonder if in future Nino years it is possible that El Nino no longer hinders the basin as immensely as it has in past years, and during El Nino years the Atlantic still manages to crank up at least one or two very powerful cyclones.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11826 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Mar 20, 2021 1:02 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Now of course I am definitely not trying to conclude or generalize anything, but it seems like at least in recent years (since 2015) El Nino years have still coincided with the Atlantic producing at least one very powerful, high end Cat 4 or a Cat 5 storm. Example: Joaquin back in 2015, Florence in 2018, Michael in 2018, Dorian in 2019, and Lorenzo in 2019. And in 2018 and 2019 especially, the total number of storms was 15 and 18 respectively, which is pretty high. So I wonder if in future Nino years it is possible that El Nino no longer hinders the basin as immensely as it has in past years, and during El Nino years the Atlantic still manages to crank up at least one or two very powerful cyclones.

Also don't forget 1992 and the infamous Andrew.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11827 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Now of course I am definitely not trying to conclude or generalize anything, but it seems like at least in recent years (since 2015) El Nino years have still coincided with the Atlantic producing at least one very powerful, high end Cat 4 or a Cat 5 storm. Example: Joaquin back in 2015, Florence in 2018, Michael in 2018, Dorian in 2019, and Lorenzo in 2019. And in 2018 and 2019 especially, the total number of storms was 15 and 18 respectively, which is pretty high. So I wonder if in future Nino years it is possible that El Nino no longer hinders the basin as immensely as it has in past years, and during El Nino years the Atlantic still manages to crank up at least one or two very powerful cyclones.

Also don't forget 1992 and the infamous Andrew.

Apparently 1992 actually evolved from a moderate El Niño to cool-neutral ENSO by ASO. Surprised me honestly given how the EPAC went bonkers that year. PDO/NPMM combo didn't look particularly impressive, so I'm wondering if the atmosphere remained coupled with El Niño for the most part. Image
Image

But yeah, even though El Niños in general put a lid on NATL activity, you always have to remember that it only takes one storm to make even the most inactive seasons notable.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11828 Postby Chris90 » Sun Mar 21, 2021 12:24 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Apparently 1992 actually evolved from a moderate El Niño to cool-neutral ENSO by ASO. Surprised me honestly given how the EPAC went bonkers that year. PDO/NPMM combo didn't look particularly impressive, so I'm wondering if the atmosphere remained coupled with El Niño for the most part. https://i.ibb.co/Rg7bgtt/coraltemp5km-ssta-19920501-large-1.gif
https://i.ibb.co/QMCPb6W/coraltemp5km-ssta-19920801-large.gif

But yeah, even though El Niños in general put a lid on NATL activity, you always have to remember that it only takes one storm to make even the most inactive seasons notable.


Interesting to note that on the graphic you posted from Aug 1, 1992, the only warm anomalies in the ATL basin basically carve out the path Andrew ended up taking about 3 weeks later.

I wonder if the inverse of that year could potentially happen for the 2021 season. If the Niña continues to decay and we end up with warm neutral by ASO but the atmosphere stays fairly coupled with Niña conditions and the ATL manages to pump out another above average season. I know some are leaning towards a double dip Niña and another above average season for the ATL but I'm not quite so bullish yet. I'm trying to figure out my preliminary numbers for the seasonal numbers thread that opens in April, but it's just a bunch of head scratching for me. Last year at this time I felt more confident in the oncoming Niña and an above average season in the ATL with warm anomalies and more heat content than usual in the basin. This year I feel like passing the SPB isn't going to do much to increase my confidence in anything.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11829 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:53 am

Chris90 wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Apparently 1992 actually evolved from a moderate El Niño to cool-neutral ENSO by ASO. Surprised me honestly given how the EPAC went bonkers that year. PDO/NPMM combo didn't look particularly impressive, so I'm wondering if the atmosphere remained coupled with El Niño for the most part. https://i.ibb.co/Rg7bgtt/coraltemp5km-ssta-19920501-large-1.gif
https://i.ibb.co/QMCPb6W/coraltemp5km-ssta-19920801-large.gif

But yeah, even though El Niños in general put a lid on NATL activity, you always have to remember that it only takes one storm to make even the most inactive seasons notable.


Interesting to note that on the graphic you posted from Aug 1, 1992, the only warm anomalies in the ATL basin basically carve out the path Andrew ended up taking about 3 weeks later.

I wonder if the inverse of that year could potentially happen for the 2021 season. If the Niña continues to decay and we end up with warm neutral by ASO but the atmosphere stays fairly coupled with Niña conditions and the ATL manages to pump out another above average season. I know some are leaning towards a double dip Niña and another above average season for the ATL but I'm not quite so bullish yet. I'm trying to figure out my preliminary numbers for the seasonal numbers thread that opens in April, but it's just a bunch of head scratching for me. Last year at this time I felt more confident in the oncoming Niña and an above average season in the ATL with warm anomalies and more heat content than usual in the basin. This year I feel like passing the SPB isn't going to do much to increase my confidence in anything.


I do think that whatever happens it is important to understand that even neutral seasons can be devastating and active. For example, 2003 was a warm neutral year and we got Fabian and Isabel, while 2005 was a late season La Niña year but during the height of the season we were basically cool neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11830 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:35 am

CPC weekly update has Niño 3.4 down to -0.5C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11831 Postby TROPICALCYCLONEALERT » Mon Mar 22, 2021 10:25 am

Seems like the burst of easterlies in association with the passage of the MJO have finally began to materialize, with widespread enhanced trade winds being anticipated by model forecasts for the next week or so. Nina forcing is also once again making itself known, with concurrent westerly winds appearing over the Indian Ocean (reasonable as a convective cell over the Maritime Continent strengthens). This will probably end up flushing life into the dwindling cold pool temporarily, but a rise to a warmer Pacific seems nearly inevitable as the subsurface warmth marches east. Atmospherically, -ENSO will probably prevail, and strengthen as we enter mid-Summer. The aforementioned westerlies in the Indian Ocean will assist with this, with anomalously weak trade winds allowing for the warming of the basin, thus intensifying rising motion over the region and sinking in the Pacific. The eventual strengthening of the West African Monsoon (and the concurrent African Standing Wave that seems to make itself known annually) should add to this, and allow for a transition back to -ENSO as we near ~SOND.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11832 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:47 pm

When the EPAC experiences easterlies, does this necessarily mean the Atlantic MDR warms up and with westerlies the MDR cools down? Or is there not really a correlation between those two?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11833 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 22, 2021 3:33 pm

TROPICALCYCLONEALERT wrote:Seems like the burst of easterlies in association with the passage of the MJO have finally began to materialize, with widespread enhanced trade winds being anticipated by model forecasts for the next week or so. Nina forcing is also once again making itself known, with concurrent westerly winds appearing over the Indian Ocean (reasonable as a convective cell over the Maritime Continent strengthens). This will probably end up flushing life into the dwindling cold pool temporarily, but a rise to a warmer Pacific seems nearly inevitable as the subsurface warmth marches east. Atmospherically, -ENSO will probably prevail, and strengthen as we enter mid-Summer. The aforementioned westerlies in the Indian Ocean will assist with this, with anomalously weak trade winds allowing for the warming of the basin, thus intensifying rising motion over the region and sinking in the Pacific. The eventual strengthening of the West African Monsoon (and the concurrent African Standing Wave that seems to make itself known annually) should add to this, and allow for a transition back to -ENSO as we near ~SOND.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/729732493460111401/823575669275099136/u.png

I think this trade burst was expected and it's more of a function of MJO activity, with the active phase of the MJO out of the way and the suppressed phase now over the Pacific. Not to play it down as if its nothing, because sometimes even just the slightest of above normal wind shifts could mean more cooling or more warming. But most guidance show it subsiding in less than a week largely due to the active phase of the MJO beginning to build again.

Image

The real question is whether that WWB which will soon be building up over the IO, will actually move past the MC and into the WPAC/CPAC. I think the CFS's MJO forecast is verifying but will its WWB forecast verify?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11834 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:25 pm

CFS shifts back to a La Nina for ASO:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11835 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:12 pm

Tbh I would not be surprised if we see a La Nina Modoki form, where the 3.4 is cooler than normal but the 1,2 is warmer than normal. We'll se though, interestingly enough I believe the last time this kind of La Nina formed was either 2011 or 2008, which were both above average.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11836 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:01 pm

Just a testament to how well the Walker Circulation is still coupled with La Niña; the latest Euro hovmoller basically shows the MJO booking it across the Central Pacific instead of slowing down and establishing itself once it exits the Maritime Continent. This probably will serve to mitigate any sort of significant destructive interference that would be brought on if this pulse were to linger for longer. Nothing super pertinent, I just found it mildly amusing is all. It's pretty cool how you can interpret what's going on atmospherically just by looking at graphics like these.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11837 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:51 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Just a testament to how well the Walker Circulation is still coupled with La Niña; the latest Euro hovmoller basically shows the MJO booking it across the Central Pacific instead of slowing down and establishing itself once it exits the Maritime Continent. This probably will serve to mitigate any sort of significant destructive interference that would be brought on if this pulse were to linger for longer. Nothing super pertinent, I just found it mildly amusing is all. It's pretty cool how you can interpret what's going on atmospherically just by looking at graphics like these.

https://i.ibb.co/FXCQ1Gb/eps-chi200-anomaly-hov-equatorial-2021032412-MEAN.png

Yeah this MJO passage over the CPAC won't trigger a rising day branch over the daline. Will take a couple of strong passages. I'm interested to see if a decent WWB is triggered and super imposes over this pretty stout downwelling Kelvin wave beneath the CPAC.

Another way to also look at it though, is that this MJO passage over the CPAC has really interfered with the sinking branch over the dateline. Shows up well on the 45 day euro. The +anomalies are much more disorganized and weaker compared to what we saw in December and January.

Image

Doubt the GFS verifies, but looks pretty potent:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11838 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:12 am

Yeah, NOAA noted the quick speed of propagation in the latest MJO discussion. SO destructive interference with the low-frequency base state will be brief

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11839 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Mar 27, 2021 10:40 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11840 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:51 pm

The healthy trade burst near the dateline and CPAC should start to create upwelling or weakening the warm anomalies at the eastern edge of the current downwelling Kelvin wave.The Euro and CFS show westerly wind anomalies slowly building across the WPAC. I'm doubting these anomalies will actually reach the dateline, but they could be enough to trigger another downwelling Kelvin wave.

Image
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