ENSO Updates

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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11881 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:36 am

Whatever happens this year, I think it would be a reasonable bet to say that an El Nino is definitely within the realm of possibilities in 2022.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11882 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:03 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Got the new Euro seasonal out. Almost an even split between warm and cool neutral:
[url]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/828635954218008616/pdf2svg-worker-commands-88596cfc-kmsqn-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-0QCTRK.png?width=651&height=536[url]
In graphic form for ASO:
[url]https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/streaming/20210405-1210/30/pdf2svg-worker-commands-88596cfc-gjsmd-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-3UbbIA.svg[url]

In regards to ENSO, April Euro seasonal is cooler than March. Still shows some sort of +ENSO for ASO but it's not as pronounced on this run.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11883 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:05 pm

Last edited by Shell Mound on Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11884 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:14 pm

Shell Mound wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1379092206645051395[url]
[url]https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1250152823028883458[url]
[url]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVlvXIpWAAMOl9S?format=png&name=large[url]


Yeah there's absolutely no question that cool-neutral is just as active as a La Nina for the Atlantic. It's just as bad. 2005, 2017, and 2020 were seasons that did not have La Nina in place as the season started, and instead had cool-neutral before La Nina came on later in the year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11885 Postby ClarCari » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:31 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1379092206645051395[url]
[url]https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1250152823028883458[url]
[url]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVlvXIpWAAMOl9S?format=png&name=large[url]


Yeah there's absolutely no question that cool-neutral is just as active as a La Nina for the Atlantic. It's just as bad. 2005, 2017, and 2020 were seasons that did not have La Nina in place as the season started, and instead had cool-neutral before La Nina came on later in the year.

I figured all that a cool-neutral already puts a cap on wind shear in the ATL and that La Niña doesn’t just..get rid of more wind shear. Cool-Neutral does the same trick.
Full blown La Niña winters however have larger implications in the south than even Neutral winters.
The past couple of times South Texas has seen serious snow were December 2017, and of course back in February this year; both heavy La Niña years.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11886 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:41 pm

It's quite interesting imho to see how the stronger the Nina the lower ACE the Atlantic tends to produce compared to a weak Nina or even neutral. I wonder why that is the case
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11887 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:29 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:It's quite interesting imho to see how the stronger the Nina the lower ACE the Atlantic tends to produce compared to a weak Nina or even neutral. I wonder why that is the case

I'm not sure why exactly but for both the EPAC and Atlantic there's a lot of seasons where ENSO +/- neutral resulted in seasons just as active if not more active than a strong El Nino or La Nina.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11888 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:32 pm

Here's the latest 90 day CFS. We'll see if it verifies again or not.
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11889 Postby SteveM » Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:14 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:It's quite interesting imho to see how the stronger the Nina the lower ACE the Atlantic tends to produce compared to a weak Nina or even neutral. I wonder why that is the case


The sample size is way too small to infer any statistical significance from that.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11890 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:24 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11891 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:20 pm

That discussion on the WAM and how it is able to dampen the effects of an incoming El Nino is quite interesting.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11892 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:45 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:That discussion on the WAM and how it is able to dampen the effects of an incoming El Nino is quite interesting.

It is pretty intriguing given the way it has been a stalwart in the global circulation over the past 5 years or so. A warm tropical Atlantic can help fend off El Niño development because it allows for more upward motion to focus itself in the Atlantic Basin, and thus prevents the Pacific from hogging most of it as it would during your typical Niño episode. And since the African Standing Wave produces a strong WAM which slows trades down in the MDR with abundant westerlies, that's how you get said warm Atlantic. This has pretty much been a recurring theme since 2016 or so where the ASW gets cranking by late spring/early summer and warms up the waters in the Atlantic (which have often started off relatively cool, if not -AMO like at times) so it's worth seeing if it puts up a fight against the changing ENSO state this year once again.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11893 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:58 pm

Per NotSparta's website: https://cyclonicwx.com/

The GFS is going crazy with this WWB. Doubt it verifies at this strength.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11894 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Per NotSparta's website: https://cyclonicwx.com/

The GFS is going crazy with this WWB. Doubt it verifies at this strength.

https://i.imgur.com/VtZwhyS.png

I think a major factor on how strong this WWB gets would be the strength of the WPAC system it'll likely spawn. GFS has forecasted a super typhoon over the past few runs so it makes sense that it has the most prolonged and intense spell of westerlies out of all the models.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11895 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:01 am

Will be interesting to see how long the MJO stays over the WPAC:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11896 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:25 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11897 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:06 pm

Sad to see the tropical waves page from Dr. Ventrice being discontinued. Taught us a lot and was extremely informative. I think it changed a lot in how we assess the climate, as well as tropical cyclone genesis. I wish there was a way to crowdsource the page and keep it alive.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11898 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:46 pm

April NMME:

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11899 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:19 am

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC April update: Neutral by May

#11900 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:31 pm

Part of the reason why this WWB over the WPAC is forecast to linger for so long by all the models, is due to the high potential for numerous low latitude TC's in the region. So even if these systems are not becoming full blown TC's, they are influencing the low level wind speeds by an extra 10-15kts.
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