Jim Hughes wrote:Take a look at this other data: Snip
Could you explain just a little what you mean by the possible La Nina having almost everything going for it? I'm sure you are aware that for most of the winter, the AO/NAO has been positive and stratosphere has experienced negative temp anomalies. How exactly is this favorable for future La Nina development? Is this somehow coupled with the space weather? What kind of space/stratosphere weather would most favor La Nina later on? I'm trying to figure out what methodology you are using and am failing. Thanks!
I have posted numerous discussions over the years within places like this and I have never made a dime from any of this. Nor from weather forecasting. There are a couple of things that I am going to keep to myself from now on in hopes of doing something with all of this one day.
Might I suggest that you read up on Theodor Landscheidt's work about the solar effect upon the EL Nino. If you combine some of this with the understanding of the solar dynamo and what space weather possibly forces it becomes slightly more clear.
Of course you need to understand the earth's climate system from the SST's up to the stratosphere. These have always been the areas that I have concentrated on. I did this because they were poorly understood environments when I first started researching.
Space weather and the stratosphere still lack a strong following or understanding and this forum's policies just prove my point.
We all know about the space weather rules in regards to this particular forum but I posted a link about the stratosphere some time back and it got moved to the global weather forum. Would an MJO topic get moved? It's a global player. So this boat does not float with me.
Anyone who thinks that the stratosphere does not play a role in the tropics is either in denial or poorly educated.
An example. I have read where some research has pointed toward a convection increase in the southern hemisphere ITCZ
after a SSW at the north pole