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cycloneye
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#61 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 02, 2007 1:14 pm

Jim Hughes wrote:The latest clip of 1/23 shows that the warmth is still rapidly being replaced by the cooler anomalies. This extremely fast turn around will be historic if it continues at this pace. We could possibly be looking at weekly negative SST anomalies that support La Nina conditions by months end.

cycloneye wrote:Image


Yes Jim.It's impressive how fast those cool anomalies are expanding.
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#62 Postby benny » Fri Feb 02, 2007 5:18 pm

Jim Hughes wrote:Take a look at this other data: Snip


Jim,
Could you explain just a little what you mean by the possible La Nina having almost everything going for it? I'm sure you are aware that for most of the winter, the AO/NAO has been positive and stratosphere has experienced negative temp anomalies. How exactly is this favorable for future La Nina development? Is this somehow coupled with the space weather? What kind of space/stratosphere weather would most favor La Nina later on? I'm trying to figure out what methodology you are using and am failing. Thanks!
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#63 Postby Jim Hughes » Sat Feb 03, 2007 8:21 am

benny wrote:
Jim Hughes wrote:Take a look at this other data: Snip


Jim,
Could you explain just a little what you mean by the possible La Nina having almost everything going for it? I'm sure you are aware that for most of the winter, the AO/NAO has been positive and stratosphere has experienced negative temp anomalies. How exactly is this favorable for future La Nina development? Is this somehow coupled with the space weather? What kind of space/stratosphere weather would most favor La Nina later on? I'm trying to figure out what methodology you are using and am failing. Thanks!


Benny,

I have posted numerous discussions over the years within places like this and I have never made a dime from any of this. Nor from weather forecasting. There are a couple of things that I am going to keep to myself from now on in hopes of doing something with all of this one day.

Might I suggest that you read up on Theodor Landscheidt's work about the solar effect upon the EL Nino. If you combine some of this with the understanding of the solar dynamo and what space weather possibly forces it becomes slightly more clear.

Of course you need to understand the earth's climate system from the SST's up to the stratosphere. These have always been the areas that I have concentrated on. I did this because they were poorly understood environments when I first started researching.

Space weather and the stratosphere still lack a strong following or understanding and this forum's policies just prove my point.

We all know about the space weather rules in regards to this particular forum but I posted a link about the stratosphere some time back and it got moved to the global weather forum. Would an MJO topic get moved? It's a global player. So this boat does not float with me.

Anyone who thinks that the stratosphere does not play a role in the tropics is either in denial or poorly educated.

An example. I have read where some research has pointed toward a convection increase in the southern hemisphere ITCZ after a SSW at the north pole.
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#64 Postby hial2 » Sat Feb 03, 2007 9:37 am

Thank you for the free education I'm getting on this forum,Jim!!..Can you explain to me what you mean by..."after a SSW at the north pole"?..
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#65 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 03, 2007 5:28 pm

The POAMA model continues to turn to Neutral-La Nina area as time goes by and it's doing so rapidly.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

POAMA Graphic
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Feb 03, 2007 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#66 Postby AussieMark » Sat Feb 03, 2007 6:27 pm

just a question should be be displaying images directly from those sites?

wouldn't it be using up their bandwidth

I just worry they may take it off thats all :?:
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#67 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 03, 2007 7:00 pm

AussieMark wrote:just a question should we be displaying images directly from those sites?

wouldn't it be using up their bandwidth

I just worry they may take it off thats all :?:


I agree about that.I haved posted graphics here but from now on those will be posted by links or hypertexts to conserve bandwidth on this site.I encourage the members to do the same.
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#68 Postby Jim Hughes » Sat Feb 03, 2007 9:12 pm

hial2 wrote:Thank you for the free education I'm getting on this forum,Jim!!..Can you explain to me what you mean by..."after a SSW at the north pole"?..


SSW stands for a sudden stratospheric warming.
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#69 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Feb 03, 2007 10:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:The POAMA model continues to turn to Neutral-La Nina area as time goes by and it's doing so rapidly.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

POAMA Graphic

Luis, the link is broken.
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#70 Postby Aquawind » Sat Feb 03, 2007 10:39 pm

Tis a rather dramatic cooling..


Image
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#71 Postby Aquawind » Sat Feb 03, 2007 10:43 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The POAMA model continues to turn to Neutral-La Nina area as time goes by and it's doing so rapidly.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

POAMA Graphic

Luis, the link is broken.



I think this is the graphic he was posting..

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

Image
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#72 Postby AussieMark » Sat Feb 03, 2007 11:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:The POAMA model continues to turn to Neutral-La Nina area as time goes by and it's doing so rapidly.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

POAMA Graphic


Graphic is

POAMA Graphic
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#73 Postby Kerry04 » Sat Feb 03, 2007 11:32 pm

Is it to early to tell what kind of affect this will have on hurricane season?
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#74 Postby Aquawind » Sat Feb 03, 2007 11:45 pm

Those graphics I posted were uploaded to Imageshack via the link in the posting window.. thus no bandwith to them and minimal with just thumbnails for us.. Another great feature Chad has added to the board.. 8-)

Is it to early to tell what kind of affect this will have on hurricane season?


Well some opions may be stronger than others but likely an active season ahead. How many landfalls is always up in the air.. no pun intended.

2006 NOAA article..

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2572.htm

Typically, La Niña events favor increased Atlantic hurricane activity, however, Jim Laver, director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center says, "It is too early to say with confidence what effects this La Niña event will have on the 2006 hurricane season."
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#75 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 04, 2007 7:14 am

wxmann_91 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The POAMA model continues to turn to Neutral-La Nina area as time goes by and it's doing so rapidly.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

POAMA Graphic

Luis, the link is broken.


POAMA Graphic

I dont know what happened but it's working now.Anyway,Aquawind posted the graphic earlier. :)
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#76 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 05, 2007 8:20 pm

Mean temperature -0.55 -0.46 -0.36 -0.31 -0.23 -0.20 -0.19
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 19.5% 13.2% 11.6% 15.7% 9.2% 19.5% 15.8%
Model neutral frequency 80.5% 86.8% 85.5% 81.0% 87.4% 77.2% 78.4%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 5.8%
NB: "warm" is defined as an exceedance of +0.8°C, while "cool" is defined as falling below –0.8°C.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

The above is the POAMA model by the numbers in terms of how this model forecasts how El Nino,Neutral and La Nina conditions will be thru September.As you can see almost the warm ENSO does not appear,while Neutral conditions are with the most percent with La Nina a distant second in the percents.
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#77 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 07, 2007 6:36 pm

Image

Above is the 1/28/07 update of the subsurface waters,wow,those blue waters are more prominent now and they keep growing.

Let's see what CPC (Climate Prediction Center) says tommorow in it's febuary update.I suspect they they will narrow the timeframe for El Nino.The January update had El Nino Thru May.
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#78 Postby MetSul Weather Center » Wed Feb 07, 2007 8:06 pm

The cooling in the models is getting faster and faster. A La Niña scenario is more likely day after day of runs.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTMon.gif

I would not be surprised to see a Pacific in La Niña mode by April or May.
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#79 Postby Jim Hughes » Wed Feb 07, 2007 11:46 pm

MetSul Weather Center wrote:The cooling in the models is getting faster and faster. A La Niña scenario is more likely day after day of runs.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTMon.gif

I would not be surprised to see a Pacific in La Niña mode by April or May.


The January OHC hard numbers show the subsurface cooling as well. The subsurface area between 180W-100W is now at -.43

The November to Janaury drop has only been stronger on two occassions. They were between 11/82-1/83 and 11/97-1/98. We saw a weak La Nina and a strong La Nina follow these sharp January changes.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _index.txt
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#80 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 08, 2007 9:02 am

Climate Prediction Center Febuary Update

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

A big change from the January update when they said El Nino would linger thru May.They now are catching up with the Australians in terms of being Neutral ENSO by spring.
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