ENSO: CPC December Update: Neutral thru Spring 2020

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hurricanetrack
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#81 Postby hurricanetrack » Thu Feb 08, 2007 10:24 am

So how many of you think there is "considerable uncertainty" for the time period after May, 2007? To put it another way, now that we are LEAVING an El Nino, what are the odds that El Nino conditions would return by July or August? I think it is interesting that we were in a La Nina this time last year and we went right in to a healthy El Nino in just a few months. Now, we are leaving El Nino, quite rapidly, and heading towards neutral conditions. Has there ever been a case when we left El Nino and then went right back to El Nino within the same calendar year? If not, then one could reasonably assume there is almost no chance of an El Nino being in place during THIS hurricane season.

I just wonder what the considerable uncertainty is all about.....
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#82 Postby Jim Hughes » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:03 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:So how many of you think there is "considerable uncertainty" for the time period after May, 2007? To put it another way, now that we are LEAVING an El Nino, what are the odds that El Nino conditions would return by July or August? I think it is interesting that we were in a La Nina this time last year and we went right in to a healthy El Nino in just a few months. Now, we are leaving El Nino, quite rapidly, and heading towards neutral conditions. Has there ever been a case when we left El Nino and then went right back to El Nino within the same calendar year? If not, then one could reasonably assume there is almost no chance of an El Nino being in place during THIS hurricane season.

I just wonder what the considerable uncertainty is all about.....


There is no uncertainity about the EL Nino's current demise. Nor about it returning during 2007.
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#83 Postby Jim Hughes » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:Climate Prediction Center Febuary Update

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

A big change from the January update when they said El Nino would linger thru May.They now are catching up with the Australians in terms of being Neutral ENSO by spring.


They are now catching up with more than the Australians. Lets see if they and the Aussies catch up about the La Nina also. :wink:
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#84 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:07 pm

Jim Hughes wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Climate Prediction Center Febuary Update

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

A big change from the January update when they said El Nino would linger thru May.They now are catching up with the Australians in terms of being Neutral ENSO by spring.


They are now catching up with more than the Australians. Lets see if they and the Aussies catch up about the La Nina also. :wink:


Jim, I have to admit, you called it first if I remember. Great job. Anyways, what is your personal thinking on this? I know you talked about it before, but now do you think a La Nina is more likely given what is happening and how long do you expect it to last if it forms?

<RICKY>
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#85 Postby MetSul Weather Center » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:11 pm

Jim

A transition from weak El Niño conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by March-May 2007.

Well, it still too conservative. I would not be surprised to see a La Niña pattern during the period they indicate is a transition from weak El Niño conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions.
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#86 Postby Jim Hughes » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:13 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Jim Hughes wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Climate Prediction Center Febuary Update

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

A big change from the January update when they said El Nino would linger thru May.They now are catching up with the Australians in terms of being Neutral ENSO by spring.


They are now catching up with more than the Australians. Lets see if they and the Aussies catch up about the La Nina also. :wink:


Jim, I have to admit, you called it first if I remember. Great job. Anyways, what is your personal thinking on this? I know you talked about it before, but now do you think a La Nina is more likely given what is happening and how long do you expect it to last if it forms?

<RICKY>


My thoughts about the La Nina on in my forecast thread about half way down this page. I have good confidence about it's development in 2007. It will last through next winter. I have made no call about 2008 yet.
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#87 Postby MetSul Weather Center » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:22 pm

Jim

I am sure you will like it:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006 ... ycle24.htm

I suspect lots of weather extremes wil happen in the next ten years and, of course, global huma-induced warming will be blamed.
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#88 Postby Jim Hughes » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:27 pm

MetSul Weather Center wrote:Jim

A transition from weak El Niño conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by March-May 2007.

Well, it still too conservative. I would not be surprised to see a La Niña pattern during the period they indicate is a transition from weak El Niño conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions.


Conservatism is a nice way of saying that they are clueless. I am convinced that they use the tri monthly numbers for more than just stability. It basically gives them a nice saftey net. Their call about it's longevity, or when it was to reach neutral, has been horrendous , just like there calls last year before the El Nino developed.

I can not fathom why certain individuals keep promoting them as authorities when anyone monitoring the ENSO can see that they really are pretty lousy long range forecasters. But this is what you get when you have the fox watching the hen house.
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#89 Postby Jim Hughes » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:34 pm

MetSul Weather Center wrote:Jim

I am sure you will like it:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006 ... ycle24.htm

I suspect lots of weather extremes wil happen in the next ten years and, of course, global huma-induced warming will be blamed.


I am aware of this forecast but do not get me started on their track record either. I am not saying that they are going to be wrong or right. I am just referring to many things that they have forecasted over the years and the methodologies they used to come to these conclusions.

It took us several years to find out how bad their last forecast for Cycle 23 was. My forecast, which many people in the news related industry got, as well as some within the solar community, MET field etc... , was for a smoothed maximum peak of 115. I first made this call in late 1995. The smoothed monthly peak ended up being 121.
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#90 Postby MetSul Weather Center » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:57 pm

Jim

Now I got curious. What is your idea on the next 11-year solar cycle. Man, It is fantastic to chat to you here.
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#91 Postby Jim Hughes » Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:28 pm

MetSul Weather Center wrote:Jim

Now I got curious. What is your idea on the next 11-year solar cycle. Man, It is fantastic to chat to you here.


I have yet to make one for Cycle 24 but I did forecast solar minimum to occur around July 07. I wrote up an extensive discussion in early 2002 about this current solar cycle and how it related to the "Golden Section". It dealt with the harmonic structure of it.

I used it along with some other methods to forecast last months sharp space weather spike. My call, which was first made late last winter or early spring, can even be seen in the Global Weather forum. (Major Solar flare 12/13 update)

I also started talking about it again as the time table approached in other forums and many people heard about this before hand. I can PM you the links to these discussions /comments.

I ended up being one solar rotation off for the biggest fireworks. Which, as you probably know, were unprecendented for this late in the solar cycle. So shoot me and hang me out to dry.

I had the increased activity date centered around 11/17 (11/10 -24th). Region 930 (Formerly old Region 923) was within about 30 degrees of the central meridian one solar rotation later. And old region 923 was about 30 degrees away from there on 11/17.

BTW what's a good solar forecast worth down there in SA? :)
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#92 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 08, 2007 6:54 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:So how many of you think there is "considerable uncertainty" for the time period after May, 2007? To put it another way, now that we are LEAVING an El Nino, what are the odds that El Nino conditions would return by July or August? I think it is interesting that we were in a La Nina this time last year and we went right in to a healthy El Nino in just a few months. Now, we are leaving El Nino, quite rapidly, and heading towards neutral conditions. Has there ever been a case when we left El Nino and then went right back to El Nino within the same calendar year? If not, then one could reasonably assume there is almost no chance of an El Nino being in place during THIS hurricane season.

I just wonder what the considerable uncertainty is all about.....


Image

Mark Sudduth,1998 was a year of rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina as the loop graphic shows.And 1998 was the year the last hurricane made landfall in Puerto Rico,not implying anything that in 2007 we will be affected but interesting that occurance.
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#93 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Feb 08, 2007 7:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:
hurricanetrack wrote:So how many of you think there is "considerable uncertainty" for the time period after May, 2007? To put it another way, now that we are LEAVING an El Nino, what are the odds that El Nino conditions would return by July or August? I think it is interesting that we were in a La Nina this time last year and we went right in to a healthy El Nino in just a few months. Now, we are leaving El Nino, quite rapidly, and heading towards neutral conditions. Has there ever been a case when we left El Nino and then went right back to El Nino within the same calendar year? If not, then one could reasonably assume there is almost no chance of an El Nino being in place during THIS hurricane season.

I just wonder what the considerable uncertainty is all about.....


Image

Mark Sudduth,1998 was a year of rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina as the loop graphic shows.And 1998 was the year the last hurricane made landfall in Puerto Rico,not implying anything that in 2007 we will be affected but interesting that occurance.


Not just that, it was an extremely powerful El Nino to a quite potent La Nina.
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#94 Postby meteorologyman » Thu Feb 08, 2007 10:01 pm

I have a question, I understand that Pacific Ocean is cooling to point where we may enter Neutral or even La Nina, and right now the Atlantic Ocean is warming up, but the weather is dry and there is still a lot of shearing, will this continue or will moisture pick up and the shearing die down? and please explain how you came up with the answer. because this will determine either a dead season or a VERY ACTIVE SEASON, cant have a storm if there is no rain or if eastrlie winds is too strong.
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#95 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Feb 08, 2007 10:33 pm

meteorologyman wrote: Atlantic Ocean is warming up, but the weather is dry and there is still a lot of shearing, will this continue or will moisture pick up and the shearing die down?


Remember, this is February we're talking about. It is the offseason, and thats one of the reasons why. I got a WV shot of last year when it was just like that, dry and sheared. This is why we ALMOST never have storms in the atlantic this time of year. Or at least part of the reason. Storms in the Atlantic now are extremely rare. (Has there ever been one in February?)

It's pretty much standard procedure. :wink:

This is from 2/26/2006
Image

This is now
Image

As I said, pretty much the same. Don't worry about it. :wink:
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#96 Postby meteorologyman » Thu Feb 08, 2007 10:42 pm

Yeah, apparently I wasn't using any logic. (lol) I' going to continue looking at Bermuda high and SST's, I'm not liking where things are headed i see "some" similarities between now and 2004. Still, like you said this is only February, still ha a 111 days wait.
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#97 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Feb 08, 2007 10:50 pm

meteorologyman wrote:I'm not liking where things are headed i see "some" similarities between now and 2004.



Coming off El Nino, that always worries me.

Here are some notable years coming after El Ninos.

1969
1988
1992
1995
1998
2003
2005

A few pages in Hurricane history came out of those years.

For those who are knew to this. Those years produced Hurricanes Camille, Gilbert, Joan, Andrew, Opal, Georges, Mitch, Isabel, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
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#98 Postby meteorologyman » Thu Feb 08, 2007 11:01 pm

Lovely! lol, are eyes and ears need to be open this year.
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#99 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Feb 08, 2007 11:12 pm

meteorologyman wrote:Lovely! lol, are eyes and ears need to be open this year.


And every year. You never know when the big one can strike.
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#100 Postby AussieMark » Thu Feb 08, 2007 11:20 pm

actually 1969 was a weak el nino year with the 3 month average for the April-June period +0.6C anomality

then for the next 3 sessions it was an average of 0.4C anomality

then the August-October period it reached el nino levels again

only 3 sessions in 1969 had levels of below el nino intensity but was only by about 0.1C
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