ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8641 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:56 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:The September 25th update is as follows:

Region 3.4 is at -0.4C
Region 3 is at -1.0C
Region 1+2 is at -1.1C



Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk


Looks like 3.4 warmed this week.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8642 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:33 pm

Pretty strong WWB on the latest GFS...

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If it materializes, it'll slow the onset of a La Nina.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8643 Postby Dean_175 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:29 pm

Ntxw - why do you think they upgraded to ERSSTv5 so soon after the previous version was released (2 years ago).

Also shows 1965 as a borderline super-Nino (like 1972).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8644 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:28 am

Dean_175 wrote:Ntxw - why do you think they upgraded to ERSSTv5 so soon after the previous version was released (2 years ago).

Also shows 1965 as a borderline super-Nino (like 1972).


I'm not sure why so soon but it is for the better. V4 had too much smoothing which dampened the values from previous versions. V5 is spatially better and closer to the previous data-sets

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1

You are also right to point out that 1965-1966 is now Super status with 2C reading on par with 1972-1973
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8645 Postby Dean_175 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:31 pm

Ntxw wrote:You are also right to point out that 1965-1966 is now Super status with 2C reading on par with 1972-1973


Yes, and 1973 is now the first (and only) "super" La Nina recorded, and 2015 is a whole increment of strength above 2.0 (at 2.6C).
It is all just classification, but it is interesting to thing about.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8646 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:29 pm

GFS backing off a central Pacific based WWB and now has it in the EPac.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8647 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS backing off a central Pacific based WWB and now has it in the EPac.




Image
Image
lime....blue =easterlies

Image
The K/W will likely make no difference at all its nina all the way.
Also :darrow:

A very strong subsurface cool pool was on the brink of surfacing. Max anomaly near -4C at ~100m dept
Image


Image
Looks nina now
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8648 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:52 am

Despite all that, according to buoys it has warmed some. Perhaps closer to -0.2C or so. The Nina may not make the new ersstv5 which has proven to stick closer to the weeklies from OISST. Still time for it to make a late push.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8649 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:51 am

Kingarabian wrote:GFS backing off a central Pacific based WWB and now has it in the EPac.


Thats why it has the likely bogus intense cane. Gfs simply cannot help itself in wanting a nino
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8650 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:51 pm

Ntxw wrote:Despite all that, according to buoys it has warmed some. Perhaps closer to -0.2C or so. The Nina may not make the new ersstv5 which has proven to stick closer to the weeklies from OISST. Still time for it to make a late push.


Weird that Nino 3.4 is not tanking right now. With a supportive moderately cool subsurface pool and consistent strong trades... this would almost always induce substantial cooling.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8651 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:06 pm

Image

Image

Image

Just about every model worth looking at is calling for further cooling. There is really no
point gauging off N4. What i find interesting is when its trending nino this thread is alive
when its nina there is not much interest.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8652 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:22 am

Its up to -0.2C this week
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8653 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:25 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote: What i find interesting is when its trending nino this thread is alive
when its nina there is not much interest.


The natural base state of the tropical Pacific is cooler waters. Trade winds is normal and a Nina is just an extension of that.

El Nino is unusual and reverse effect with large global implications from the norm thus flashier. If it was sunny all the time, there would not be much interest in weather discussion. Similar applications here.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8654 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:09 am

Ntxw wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote: What i find interesting is when its trending nino this thread is alive
when its nina there is not much interest.


The natural base state of the tropical Pacific is cooler waters. Trade winds is normal and a Nina is just an extension of that.

El Nino is unusual and reverse effect with large global implications from the norm thus flashier. If it was sunny all the time, there would not be much interest in weather discussion. Similar applications here.


I agree but would add that if we were looking at a very (or extreme) La Nina beginning to set up, that those possible major climate implications might also garner a good deal more interest as well. Overall though, I myself find this thread generally muddled in predominantly numeric data readings discussion and incremental data updates. Perhaps most people that follow severe weather or hurricanes are more interested in just knowing what the overall base state "is" or "is going to be" then the batter by batter... inning by inning score card. Furthermore, i think the fact that often times the cause and effect ENSO impacts begin more subtly and with some lag in time, that the week to week changes just have minimal relevence for most present & nearer term minded time perspectives.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8655 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:31 am

chaser1 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote: What i find interesting is when its trending nino this thread is alive
when its nina there is not much interest.


The natural base state of the tropical Pacific is cooler waters. Trade winds is normal and a Nina is just an extension of that.

El Nino is unusual and reverse effect with large global implications from the norm thus flashier. If it was sunny all the time, there would not be much interest in weather discussion. Similar applications here.


I agree but would add that if we were looking at a very (or extreme) La Nina beginning to set up, that those possible major climate implications might also garner a good deal more interest as well. Overall though, I myself find this thread generally muddled in predominantly numeric data readings discussion and incremental data updates. Perhaps most people that follow severe weather or hurricanes are more interested in just knowing what the overall base state "is" or "is going to be" then the batter by batter... inning by inning score card. Furthermore, i think the fact that often times the cause and effect ENSO impacts begin more subtly and with some lag in time, that the week to week changes just have minimal relevence for most present & nearer term minded time perspectives.


We try to keep the ENSO thread independent and factual. Once we dive into hurricane seasons then often that becomes breeding grounds for back and forth which we have indicator threads for. There is more to ENSO than using it to predict hurricane/typhoon seasons. There is a high level of research still needed for arguably one the biggest phenomena on the planet that effects weather.

As for this Nina, the weeklies are not there to be assured it will get and ONI is too high at the moment given we are nearing the end of the year. The atmosphere has behaved very Nina like the past 3-6 months however. Weak to maybe moderate Nina if cools very fast, quickly but it took a step backwards this week. If we were on track for a strong Nina the weeklies would be reading well above -1C by now
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8656 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:01 pm

With respect nina is the extreme opposite of nino. Its a big deal too other country's outside of the
usa. If there was a large warm pool moving east no doubt a few would be highlighting every warm
anom across the cpac epac. And the only reason is because the cpac epac hurricane numbers
sky rocket during nino phase's. So yeah keep it factual.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8657 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:16 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:With respect nina is the extreme opposite of nino. Its a big deal too other country's outside of the
usa. If there was a large warm pool moving east no doubt a few would be highlighting every warm
anom across the cpac epac. And the only reason is because the cpac epac hurricane numbers
sky rocket during nino phase's. So yeah keep it factual.


There are far more papers and start ups that rely on El Nino. The TAO buoys for instance are in place because of 1982 super nino disrupting major weather patterns. No one said La Nina is not important but that the meteorological community is more intrigued at the behaviors of bigger El Ninos than La Ninas and papers are written about different kinds of El Nino and how behaves than the counterpart.

We also have to face the fact that many folks who would be interested in La Nina (for Atlantic season purposes) just are not as interested in the mechanics of ENSO but rather just if it benefits the basin. Many do not post thoughts or data ENSO related but rather they just post in the indicators thread about their basin. Perhaps this season might change that for the benefit.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8658 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:28 am

Not sure if it's too early to ask, but since it's October, what are the chances of snow for NE Georgia this winter with La Nina? I researched the last several and there was wide variance, so what should I expect when other factors (PDO, NAO, etc) are taken into consideration?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8659 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:15 am

Hammy wrote:Not sure if it's too early to ask, but since it's October, what are the chances of snow for NE Georgia this winter with La Nina? I researched the last several and there was wide variance, so what should I expect when other factors (PDO, NAO, etc) are taken into consideration?


On average, El Nino gives the ATL-AHN corridor a good bit more snow than La Nina. However, as 2010-11 showed, there are certainly major exceptions as i'm only talking about averages and it only takes one snowstorm to be above the average for the season, which is only 2". Also, weak La Nina is better than moderate or stronger. With a weak Nina, the winters are pretty much crapshoots for ATL-AHN.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8660 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:47 am

Larry is correct that in general La Nina is not favorable for the southeast. Southeast ridge pattern tends to take hold. It can be overcome for some cold like 2010-11 if there is a very strong -NAO.
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