ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#8681 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:02 am

Ptarmigan wrote:This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3 -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled.

We also have the closest thing to a negative (–) PDO we have seen since 2013. It may be short-lived, but it's still significant, given how the PDO has been strongly positive for four years. You can see the trend on the latest NESDIS SST anomaly data. Note the ring of cold anomalies near western North America and Baja California, coupled with the warm pool south of the Aleutian Islands. Notably, the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) looks more negative than it has been in some time, with below-average anomalies supplanting previously above-average ones to the south of the Hawaiian Islands. If sustained, this pattern makes for big differences in the upcoming winter and spring seasons, both in terms of winter and severe weather. Overall, we definitely have the most "classic" La Niña configuration in some time.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8682 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:42 am

Warmed back to -0.5C this week
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8683 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:55 am

GeneratorPower wrote:I really enjoy the ENSO forecast attempts and discussion of the science. But I think the scientific community needs to admit they cannot forecast ENSO. Not necessarily on this board, but on other big boards there was nothing but El Niño wishcasting through about March 2017. Even by June we had big names holding on to their Nino predictions. I suppose El Niño brings bigger snow totals for the cold weather climate folks.


Its not easy predicting something months away. When we look at stronger events (mod or strong) it's easier. The busts are really associated with weak and neutral events. They are not so easy when you are thinking in tenths of a degree anomaly
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8684 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:39 pm

Just by eyeballing the anomalies on NESDIS, it looks like the PDO signature for October will be less positive.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8685 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:58 pm

Per NCDC, the PDO value has cooled once again in October, dropping to -0.60 from -0.26. It's going to be a close call from JISAO and JMA again if the positive streak is broken or not.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8686 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:37 am

-0.4C this week
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8687 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:45 am

Latest update from the CPC that is officially -0.4C. You can read below.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The most significant information to date is ONI updated for ASO which now reads -0.4C also. With the late Nina start on ONi (assuming it achieves 5 consecutive trimonthlies) is closest to 1974-1975, 1984-1985, 2005-2006, and 2008-2009.

That's using the new ERSSTv5. The prior version ERSSTv4 for ASO reads -0.5C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8688 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:40 pm

Its now official. We have a La Nina


https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/928634606575931393
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8689 Postby SFLcane » Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:05 pm

2018 Atlantic season could be epic...
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8690 Postby Alyono » Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:17 pm

SFLcane wrote:2018 Atlantic season could be epic...


WAY too early to say with any certainty. We cannot accurately predict ENSO until about May
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8691 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:05 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Even colder this week so perhaps Monday's update will yield ~ -0.7C

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/11scfax.png[img]

The next couple of weeks into early Nov is likely the peak of this event right now. Most guidance agree on November is the bottoming out of -SSTA

I am still hoping (Luis) cycloneye will return soon with the weekly ENSO updates but he has not been around since Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico.


You think the CPC will declare a La Nina regardless of the tri-monthlies?


They will only declare if the trimonthlies qualify. 2014 is a prime example of so close (at the time)


Looks like they declared it. But aren't the trimonthlies still not sufficient?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8692 Postby SFLcane » Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:05 pm

Alyono wrote:
SFLcane wrote:2018 Atlantic season could be epic...


WAY too early to say with any certainty. We cannot accurately predict ENSO until about May


Alyono yes i'am fully aware just a hypothetical gut feeling :wink:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8693 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:42 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Alyono wrote:
SFLcane wrote:2018 Atlantic season could be epic...


WAY too early to say with any certainty. We cannot accurately predict ENSO until about May


Alyono yes i'am fully aware just a hypothetical gut feeling :wink:


It's all up in the air at the moment, but historically speaking, it's certainly easier to get a La Nina event vs. an El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8694 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:45 pm

It's not easy getting a third Nina in a row. I believe it's happened twice since 1950. The other two times had very strong Ninas involved being 1973-1975 and 1998-2000
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8695 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:35 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#8696 Postby HurricaneFan » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:14 pm

Ntxw wrote:It's not easy getting a third Nina in a row. I believe it's happened twice since 1950. The other two times had very strong Ninas involved being 1973-1975 and 1998-2000

Hi,so by third Nina in a row you mean another one for the middle of 2018? Because isn't this one the second in a row?
How long is this one expected to last?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8697 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:17 pm

I don't think we'll see three La Nina years in a row. Based on climatology I'd say that ENSO-neutral is the most likely scenario for 2018-19. I don't see El Nino returning just yet because it isn't very common to directly go from Nina to Nino without a neutral year or two in between.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8698 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:27 pm

HurricaneFan wrote:
Ntxw wrote:It's not easy getting a third Nina in a row. I believe it's happened twice since 1950. The other two times had very strong Ninas involved being 1973-1975 and 1998-2000

Hi,so by third Nina in a row you mean another one for the middle of 2018? Because isn't this one the second in a row?
How long is this one expected to last?


Yeah. This one should fade by Spring as most ENSO events do that are not strong or Super. CyclonicFury said it best above. Neutral is the most likely outcome next year when looking at history. This one is second dip Nina (should it officially be given and appears it may). Historic probability went against a Nino this year in light of what happened earlier in the year and it turned out right.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8699 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:36 am

In one of the biggest jumps you will ever see, this week's reading will drop all the way to -1.1C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8700 Postby LarryWx » Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:50 am

Ntxw wrote:In one of the biggest jumps you will ever see, this week's reading will drop all the way to -1.1C


Largest weekly drop on record in Nino 3.4!
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