Ntxw wrote:In one of the biggest jumps you will ever see, this week's reading will drop all the way to -1.1C
Incredible. CFS is now lagging behind the real time Nino 3.4 data, with it currently having Nino 3.4 @ -0.5C and also peaking the event @ Nino -1.1C. Next update should be interesting. Wonder if we could get a super La Nina by spring.
Looking at the anomalies, it also looks like this Nina is trying hard to flip the PDO negative. Could we see a strong La Nina with a positive PDO?
Unlikely for a few reasons. Super Nina is rare and there has never been 3 consecutive ONI readings below -2.0C. It is normal for weeklies to get high/low near the peak of an event (which normally occurs late fall-early winter). Many years have reached near +/- 2.0C in weeklies that did not correspond to such values in the trimonthlies. It is the ONI that matters and you need to reach strong negative values for several months in a row to get -2.0C. You can think probably -2.5 to -2.8C range for the weeklies for an ONI in the "very strong/super" range.
Most ENSO events show some degree of weakening by March--even if they later start developing again (2011,2014,etc.). Would need to see significant cold pool development along with stronger trade bursts with strongly positive SOI to support such rapid cooling.
I think most likely scenario is weak La Nina personally. That is what the overall progression seems to me. I think that with the pass filter in the dataset , the last ONI value will be pushed down to -0.5C..and we will get probably 4 more trimonthlies after that.. but ERSSTv5 is still new and is hard to see how it will measure.
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