Kingarabian wrote: NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:New Euro 850mb wind forecast shows more easterlies on the way over the dateline/CPAC (bottom graphic):
However, the initial easterly burst it was predicting last week (top graphic) did not verify so well.
If there are still easterlies persisting there, I won't know what to think. I'm thinking a weak west based El Nino sets in during fall. However, this would not be favorable for a west based Nino, or even a Nino at all. Could be related to GFS and EURO now trending the MJO into Nina phases. Does look like a bit of a step back from a Nino, but definitely possible/likely this year, IMO.
This wind setup continues to have mostly westerly anomalies in the eastern Pacific for the next week or so. This likely means that the subsurface pool will continue to build under the eastern Nino regions.
If they verify, the strengths of these predicted trade bursts look potent enough to trigger a upwelling Kelvin wave (cold pool). So I would look to see if that happens in the next couple of weeks.
Maybe the subsurface pool will move one day
Yeah the eastern parts usually get weakened and may be helped along by the westerlies.
However, if Nino 1+2 gets too warm while Nino 3.4 stays cooler due to trade bursts, that is like El Nino poison I've found and this is the perfect trade pattern for that. It is similar to 2017. Basically, it causes what I said above. That means any WWBs that come along have reduced power, and can't cause new WWBs as a feedback towards El Nino. EWBs are suppressed in a similar fashion, but it does not help an El Nino to come along.
Of course, we have to take the subsurface into account. That could help El Nino start or point it there more than last year. And I too will keep my eyes on the subsurface for any upwelling pools. It could cause a failed El Nino attempt, but it needs to be significant, and get through the existing warm pool.