ENSO Updates

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9235
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#9421 Postby NDG » Sun May 20, 2018 10:13 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Euro pushes the MJO into phase 3 towards the end of the month:

Image

This phase doesn't really favor Darwin or Tahiti. But if the MJO gets into phase 4 or 5 and amplifies, then that means there will be a very positive SOI setup and trades will takeover across the equatorial pacific.

Also latest Euro 10 day forecast shows the SOI closing off May as barely negative or at neutral. For El Nino chances, this is going to be a speed bump if it were to verify. But it does switch the SOI back to negative towards the end of its run.


GFS is now also forecasting the MJO to go into phase 3 and possibly into phase 4, in fact it has not done that well with the MJO this time around just last week it was forecasting the MJO to not go into phase 2.

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8597
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#9422 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 21, 2018 2:25 am

BOM has Nino 3.4 at +0.13
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 607
Age: 16
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#9423 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 21, 2018 6:04 am

If we have neutral SOI (like 0.00) the rest of the month, it could go down as positive, since the 30 day mean is getting rid of a -SOI streak from last month
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 15551
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#9424 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 21, 2018 7:01 am

Looks like the update will hold steady at -0.1C this week later this morning
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112166
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9425 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 21, 2018 8:38 am

Niño stays at -0.1C on this weekly update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2637
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9426 Postby LarryWx » Mon May 21, 2018 9:16 am

cycloneye wrote:Niño stays at -0.1C on this weekly update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


Note that the upper equatorial Pacific OHC is not only holding up but it is starting to slowly rise again and is back above +0.80. If this persists into June, the chance at a weak
to possibly moderate El Niño peak in late fall or winter would increase. At the same time, I have just learned about a 0.5 C warm bias in the May Eurosip ASO Niño 3.4 forecast based on 13 years of data. Therefore, I eagerly await the release of the May 2018 Eurosip ASO Niño 3.4 forecast. If it were to come in at only warm neutral, I'd have to favor no warmer than warm neutral for at least ASO even though it could subsequently reach weak El Niño later in the year. Even if it were to come in at weak El Niño in ASO, I'd have to remain wary about it happening as early as ASO due to this 0.5 C warm bias. Sometimes Eurosip has gotten this right but more often it has missed to the warm side. Then again, a persistently warm OHC may mean this would be one of the times Eurosip gets it right.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13544
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9427 Postby tolakram » Mon May 21, 2018 10:13 am

In what previous year have we been cold neutral near the end of May and experienced a nino by the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season?

1992 comes close.
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9235
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9428 Postby NDG » Mon May 21, 2018 10:29 am

tolakram wrote:In what previous year have we been cold neutral near the end of May and experienced a nino by the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season?

1992 comes close.


Are you sure about 1992? It looks completely the opposite to me.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... ONI_v5.php
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13544
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9429 Postby tolakram » Mon May 21, 2018 11:12 am

NDG wrote:
tolakram wrote:In what previous year have we been cold neutral near the end of May and experienced a nino by the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season?

1992 comes close.


Are you sure about 1992? It looks completely the opposite to me.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... ONI_v5.php


Well, I'm looking at the graphic for the duration of 1992, which appears to line up with 1993 in those numbers.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

I don't like the way your link labels the years. :)
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8597
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9430 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 21, 2018 2:26 pm

New Euro 850mb wind forecast shows more easterlies on the way over the dateline/CPAC (bottom graphic):

Image

However, the initial easterly burst it was predicting last week (top graphic) did not verify so well.
3 likes   
Image

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 607
Age: 16
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9431 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 21, 2018 2:33 pm

Kingarabian wrote:New Euro 850mb wind forecast shows more easterlies on the way over the dateline/CPAC (bottom graphic):

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Tpq7LQx.jpg[img]

However, the initial easterly burst it was predicting last week (top graphic) did not verify so well.


If there are still easterlies persisting there, I won't know what to think. I'm thinking a weak west based El Nino sets in during fall. However, this would not be favorable for a west based Nino, or even a Nino at all. Could be related to GFS and EURO now trending the MJO into Nina phases. Does look like a bit of a step back from a Nino, but definitely possible/likely this year, IMO.
1 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8597
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9432 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 21, 2018 2:48 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:New Euro 850mb wind forecast shows more easterlies on the way over the dateline/CPAC (bottom graphic):

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Tpq7LQx.jpg[img]

However, the initial easterly burst it was predicting last week (top graphic) did not verify so well.


If there are still easterlies persisting there, I won't know what to think. I'm thinking a weak west based El Nino sets in during fall. However, this would not be favorable for a west based Nino, or even a Nino at all. Could be related to GFS and EURO now trending the MJO into Nina phases. Does look like a bit of a step back from a Nino, but definitely possible/likely this year, IMO.


This wind setup continues to have mostly westerly anomalies in the eastern Pacific for the next week or so. This likely means that the subsurface pool will continue to build under the eastern Nino regions.

If they verify, the strengths of these predicted trade bursts look potent enough to trigger a upwelling Kelvin wave (cold pool). So I would look to see if that happens in the next couple of weeks.
1 likes   
Image

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 607
Age: 16
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9433 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 21, 2018 3:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:New Euro 850mb wind forecast shows more easterlies on the way over the dateline/CPAC (bottom graphic):

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Tpq7LQx.jpg[img]

However, the initial easterly burst it was predicting last week (top graphic) did not verify so well.


If there are still easterlies persisting there, I won't know what to think. I'm thinking a weak west based El Nino sets in during fall. However, this would not be favorable for a west based Nino, or even a Nino at all. Could be related to GFS and EURO now trending the MJO into Nina phases. Does look like a bit of a step back from a Nino, but definitely possible/likely this year, IMO.


This wind setup continues to have mostly westerly anomalies in the eastern Pacific for the next week or so. This likely means that the subsurface pool will continue to build under the eastern Nino regions.

If they verify, the strengths of these predicted trade bursts look potent enough to trigger a upwelling Kelvin wave (cold pool). So I would look to see if that happens in the next couple of weeks.


Maybe the subsurface pool will move one day :lol:

Yeah the eastern parts usually get weakened and may be helped along by the westerlies.

However, if Nino 1+2 gets too warm while Nino 3.4 stays cooler due to trade bursts, that is like El Nino poison I've found and this is the perfect trade pattern for that. It is similar to 2017. Basically, it causes what I said above. That means any WWBs that come along have reduced power, and can't cause new WWBs as a feedback towards El Nino. EWBs are suppressed in a similar fashion, but it does not help an El Nino to come along.

Of course, we have to take the subsurface into account. That could help El Nino start or point it there more than last year. And I too will keep my eyes on the subsurface for any upwelling pools. It could cause a failed El Nino attempt, but it needs to be significant, and get through the existing warm pool.
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8597
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9434 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 21, 2018 3:48 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
If there are still easterlies persisting there, I won't know what to think. I'm thinking a weak west based El Nino sets in during fall. However, this would not be favorable for a west based Nino, or even a Nino at all. Could be related to GFS and EURO now trending the MJO into Nina phases. Does look like a bit of a step back from a Nino, but definitely possible/likely this year, IMO.


This wind setup continues to have mostly westerly anomalies in the eastern Pacific for the next week or so. This likely means that the subsurface pool will continue to build under the eastern Nino regions.

If they verify, the strengths of these predicted trade bursts look potent enough to trigger a upwelling Kelvin wave (cold pool). So I would look to see if that happens in the next couple of weeks.


Maybe the subsurface pool will move one day :lol:

Yeah the eastern parts usually get weakened and may be helped along by the westerlies.

However, if Nino 1+2 gets too warm while Nino 3.4 stays cooler due to trade bursts, that is like El Nino poison I've found and this is the perfect trade pattern for that. It is similar to 2017. Basically, it causes what I said above. That means any WWBs that come along have reduced power, and can't cause new WWBs as a feedback towards El Nino. EWBs are suppressed in a similar fashion, but it does not help an El Nino to come along.

Of course, we have to take the subsurface into account. That could help El Nino start or point it there more than last year. And I too will keep my eyes on the subsurface for any upwelling pools. It could cause a failed El Nino attempt, but it needs to be significant, and get through the existing warm pool.


From what I seen, nearly all Nino events have WWB's in the EPAC. Look at the zonal wind anomalies in the past couple of events.

WWB's in the CPAC/west of the DL act to form downwelling Kelvin waves, while EPAC WWB's move the warm waters from the subsurace to the surface.
1 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8597
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9435 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 21, 2018 4:07 pm

1 likes   
Image

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8597
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9436 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 21, 2018 4:22 pm

It's been a slow process, but the warm sub surface pool has made its way into the EPAC during the month of May.

Image
1 likes   
Image

User avatar
StruThiO
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 195
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9437 Postby StruThiO » Mon May 21, 2018 5:13 pm

3 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 195
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9438 Postby StruThiO » Mon May 21, 2018 8:44 pm

Image

trades have trended weaker as the forecast date draws closer to the actual one, so take it with a grain of salt, but decent trades east of dateline in a few days
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9235
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9439 Postby NDG » Mon May 21, 2018 9:10 pm

So on past Nino events this was the reading at Nino 3.4 for around this same time of the year. Perhaps 2006 is a closer analog if we are to see a weak El Nino before the end of the year?

2002 +0.4C
2004 +0.4C
2006 +0.2C
2009 +0.4C
2014 +0.5C
2015 +1.1C

2018? -0.1C
5 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8597
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 5/21/18: Niño 3.4 remains at -0.1C

#9440 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 22, 2018 9:38 am

NDG wrote:So on past Nino events this was the reading at Nino 3.4 for around this same time of the year. Perhaps 2006 is a closer analog if we are to see a weak El Nino before the end of the year?

2002 +0.4C
2004 +0.4C
2006 +0.2C
2009 +0.4C
2014 +0.5C
2015 +1.1C

2018? -0.1C


It's astonishing how Nino 3.4 remains negative despite a more favorable wind pattern at this stage compared to 2009 2006 and a lot more warmth in the sub surface. Shows how little we know.
3 likes   
Image


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, cajungal, CyclonicFury, GeneratorPower, HurricaneMaster_PR, Ian2401, Kazmit, Kennethb, Kingarabian, Teban54, weathaguyry and 23 guests