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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9641 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:41 am

CDAS has Niño 3.4 with continued upward readings (+0.3C) as of this post.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9642 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:30 am

No additional sig WWB in the short term. However the trades from the DL and east continue in a weakened state compared to average along the Equatorial Pacific.

Image

The Buoys are warming. To Luis' post above 0.3C or greater is probable or close come Monday's update.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9643 Postby Eric Webb » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:50 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Eric Webb wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Welcome, Eric! Thank you for sharing your ENS ONI, and I can't wait to take a look at it. We've been quoting your tweets on this thread and elsewhere for some time now. Always informative and always good to have your insight. Good to have your contribution on probably the most comprehensive ENSO thread on the internet.


I'm certainly glad to contribute!

As you'll later see when you take a closer look at the ENS ONI, the similarities between the 1876-78 & 2014-16 El Ninos are quite eery to say the least. I think 1880-81 is a very plausible scenario for 2018-19, with a weak, central pacific El Nino that develops after the Equinox and has trouble fading away into next spring.

1875-76 & 2013-14: Cold neutral ENSO
1876-77 & 2014-15: Weak El Nino develops after the Equinox
1877-78 & 2015-16: "Super" El Nino
1878-78 & 2016-17: Cold neutral ENSO
1879-80 & 2017-18: Weak-Moderate La Nina
1880-81 & 2018-19: Weak El Nino develops after the equinox (?)

ENS ONI 1876-1880
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dfr0dOdXcAEZda1.jpg[mg]

ENS ONI 2014-2018
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dfr0dOeX0AETSXR.jpg[mg]


Who would've known that in the late 1800s there's analog period that fits perfectly with the present. Great work. I've been on the record saying that 2018 will be a unique El Nino event, likely triggered due the record warm PDO regime. But it sure looks like this event has taken place before.

You brought great awareness to the PMM and its current strength. Is there PMM data from 1875-1880 that we can use for comparison purposes?


Thanks! Unfortunately, the PMM isn't available before 1950, its pretty hard to compute and uses surface wind data that's much less reliable before 1950 even more so than SSTs. I'm sure I could probably make a SST-only index that would approximate it.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9644 Postby Eric Webb » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:08 am

1st-year weak-moderate El Ninos via the ENS ONI. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html
NINO Winter (Another El Nino (Yes or no)?)
1864-65 (?) Yes
1868-69 No
1876-77 Yes
1880-81 No
1884-85 Yes
1887-88 Yes
1899-00 Yes
1904-05 Yes
1911-12 No
1913-14 Yes
1918-19 No
1923-24 No
1925-26 No
1929-30 Yes
1939-40 Yes
1951-52 No
1953-54 No
1963-64 No
1968-69 Yes
1976-77 No
1986-87 Yes
1994-95 No
2002-03 No
2004-05 No
2006-07 No
2014-15 Yes

Since 1865, roughly half of all weak-moderate 1st year El Ninos (13 of 25 (52%)) have went onto produce another El Nino the following year. This is exactly why you need to extend the ENSO record back into the 19th century, because if I would have used the modern era data only (1950-present) with appreciably less samples, less statistical significance, with a greater propensity to be completely dominated by multi-decadal variability, I would have gotten a figure closer to 25%.
This all means that climatologically speaking, all else considered, there's about a 50% chance of El Nino in 2019-20 if a weak El Nino develops later this year. If a +PMM develops this upcoming winter, those odds are likely even higher.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1007634759957254145


Last edited by Eric Webb on Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9645 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:20 am

Kingarabian wrote:IMO the CPC should've issued an El Nino watch last month (more than enough factors to initiate one with the persistent dateline WWB's and a warm sub surface), and went with an El Nino warning today.

Latest Euro weeklies show the Walker cell in an El Nino setup by July:

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1007410681296011265



I agree that the El Niño watch could have been issued last month, but I don't think it's time for an El Niño warning until weekly Niño 3.4 values reach +0.5C. The last weekly value was +0.0C so it was a good call not to initiate an El Niño warning, IMO. We should see steady warming over the next several weeks, and we should see a Niño 3.4 value of +0.5C some time in July or so.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9646 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:28 am

CyclonicFury wrote:I agree that the El Niño watch could have been issued last month, but I don't think it's time for an El Niño warning until weekly Niño 3.4 values reach +0.5C. The last weekly value was +0.0C so it was a good call not to initiate an El Niño warning, IMO. We should see steady warming over the next several weeks, and we should see a Niño 3.4 value of +0.5C some time in July or so.


We've all learned here that the weeklies are not a great measurement looking forward to the future with ENSO. It's a better short term indicator if anything else. This was a good lesson last year and 2012 that even with +0.5C or more readings, without the other pieces in play can fail...vice versa.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9647 Postby Eric Webb » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:31 am

Eric Webb wrote:1st-year weak-moderate El Ninos via the ENS ONI. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html
NINO Winter (Another El Nino (Yes or no)?)
1864-65 (?) Yes
1868-69 No
1876-77 Yes
1880-81 No
1884-85 Yes
1887-88 Yes
1899-00 Yes
1904-05 Yes
1911-12 No
1913-14 Yes
1918-19 No
1923-24 No
1925-26 No
1929-30 Yes
1939-40 Yes
1951-52 No
1953-54 No
1963-64 No
1968-69 Yes
1976-77 No
1986-87 Yes
1994-95 No
2002-03 No
2004-05 No
2006-07 No
2014-15 Yes

Since 1865, roughly half of all weak-moderate 1st year El Ninos (13 of 25 (52%)) have went onto produce another El Nino the following year. This is exactly why you need to extend the ENSO record back into the 19th century, because if I would have used the modern era data only (1950-present) with appreciably less samples, less statistical significance, with a greater propensity to be completely dominated by multi-decadal variability, I would have gotten a figure closer to 25%.
This all means that climatologically speaking, all else considered, there's about a 50% chance of El Nino in 2019-20 if a weak El Nino develops later this year. If a +PMM develops this upcoming winter, those odds are likely even higher.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1007634759957254145




Interestingly, in 10 of the 12 cases (~80-85%) where another El Nino followed a first year weak-moderate event, the 2nd event was stronger which shouldn't be too surprising from a logical point of view given most of these 1st NINOs weren't all that impressive in their own right, meaning that it wouldn't take much to top them (especially when the background state is already predisposed towards NINO conditions).
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9648 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:36 am

Eric Webb wrote:Interestingly, in 10 of the 12 cases (~80-85%) where another El Nino followed a first year weak-moderate event, the 2nd event was stronger which shouldn't be too surprising from a logical point of view given most of these 1st NINOs weren't all that impressive in their own right, meaning that it wouldn't take much to top them (especially when the background state is already predisposed towards NINO conditions).


I've been curious with the -AMO config currently out there (and it's really deep too not just at the surface) will play any role in any of this? The Atlantic is not offering much resistance in the pressure patterns for a multiyear event should it continue.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9649 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:40 am

Ntxw wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I agree that the El Niño watch could have been issued last month, but I don't think it's time for an El Niño warning until weekly Niño 3.4 values reach +0.5C. The last weekly value was +0.0C so it was a good call not to initiate an El Niño warning, IMO. We should see steady warming over the next several weeks, and we should see a Niño 3.4 value of +0.5C some time in July or so.


We've all learned here that the weeklies are not a great measurement looking forward to the future with ENSO. It's a better short term indicator if anything else. This was a good lesson last year and 2012 that even with +0.5C or more readings, without the other pieces in play can fail...vice versa.


While this is true, an El Niño warning is not the best choice when weeklies have not gotten close to Niño levels yet, and likely will not for the next month. The only way it would make much sense to do so is if there was a significant WWB imminent or occuring, which isn't happening right now.

Maybe, based on trends, an El Niño warning appears on the next diagnostic.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9650 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:43 am

Ntxw wrote:
Eric Webb wrote:Interestingly, in 10 of the 12 cases (~80-85%) where another El Nino followed a first year weak-moderate event, the 2nd event was stronger which shouldn't be too surprising from a logical point of view given most of these 1st NINOs weren't all that impressive in their own right, meaning that it wouldn't take much to top them (especially when the background state is already predisposed towards NINO conditions).


I've been curious with the -AMO config currently out there (and it's really deep too not just at the surface) will play any role in any of this? The Atlantic is not offering much resistance in the pressure patterns for a multiyear event should it continue.


Yes, it means the global tropics are generally cooler, and with the cooler than average Indian Ocean, the warmest tropical area (ENSO region) will "want" to continue to warm. If I recall correctly, amplitude of El Niño events are higher in -AMO eras, due to extra feedback causing ENSO regions to warm. You can also see how things worked in the opposite way in 2017 and 2012, where the tropical Atlantic was the warmest, suppressing El Niño formation.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9651 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:04 am

@EricBlake12
The latest ECMWF model is showing a pretty strong signal for #ElNino later this year, but before taking it verbatim, remember last year’s forecast didn’t verify too well!


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1007648722086518784


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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9652 Postby Eric Webb » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:36 am

Ntxw wrote:
Eric Webb wrote:Interestingly, in 10 of the 12 cases (~80-85%) where another El Nino followed a first year weak-moderate event, the 2nd event was stronger which shouldn't be too surprising from a logical point of view given most of these 1st NINOs weren't all that impressive in their own right, meaning that it wouldn't take much to top them (especially when the background state is already predisposed towards NINO conditions).


I've been curious with the -AMO config currently out there (and it's really deep too not just at the surface) will play any role in any of this? The Atlantic is not offering much resistance in the pressure patterns for a multiyear event should it continue.


Actually, the -AMO is prevalent throughout an extensive depth of the Atlantic, I doubt the changes we are seeing are temporary and that 2013, like 1970, 1973, & 1993 was a warning sign of an impending flip.
 https://twitter.com/Recretos/status/1007515295899111424




A colder Atlantic is certainly more favorable to El Nino for several reasons, cooler MDR SSTs means the easterly trades are stronger which favors air/mass more readily piling into South America, where a major anomalous upward branch of the Hadley Cell is juxtaposed during El Ninos, essentially meaning that a cold AMO superimposes itself to some extent onto the larger-scale NINO circulation. A colder Atlantic also means there's one less ocean basin that's competing for upward motion on the global scale, affording the Pacific a greater chance to steal the show per say. In addition, the cold phase of the AMO pulls the ITCZ in the Pacific equatorward, again favoring El Nino (Sung et al (2015)). A seiching mechanism related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has also been proposed but it's much more elusive.

Here's a few excerpts from literature I've sifted through in the past few months that provide verification of this cold AMO-NINO relationship.

"The results show that the tropical Atlantic warming associated with the positive AMO phase leads to a
westward displacement of the Pacific Walker circulation and a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean
, thereby
inducing anomalous descending motion over the central tropical Pacific. The descending motion then
excites a stationary Rossby wave pattern that extends northward to produce a nearly barotropic anticyclone
over the North Pacific."

https://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/Lyu-Yu-Paek.JCLI.2017.pdf

"The long-lasting cold surface conditions of North Atlantic, i.e., the negative phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), can intensify the El Niño–Southern Oscillation through the enhanced air-sea coupling under the increased central-to-eastern tropical Pacific mean sea surface temperature. However, the impact of warmer mean sea surface temperature (SST) is more efficient in the intensifying El Niño than La Niña, because of the nature of the exponential growth of atmospheric convection to SST change. Moreover, the farther eastward shift of the atmospheric convection during the negative AMO leads to the stronger El Niño due to the longer delayed negative feedback by oceanic waves. Therefore, the AMO mainly influences El Niño intensity rather than La Niña intensity."

"The SST anomalies in the El Niño years during AMO periods were stronger;"

"El Niño events were more significantly enhanced than La Niña events during AMO periods. The asymmetric development of the ENSO during the different AMO phases is related to thewarmer and wetter basic state of the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific, as shown in both the observations and the CM2.1 model output. Owing to the nonlinear properties in the SST-convection relationship, the warmer mean state of the SST in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific enhances the sensitivity ofatmospheric convection to the same SST anomaly"
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2015GL064381
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9653 Postby LarryWx » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:22 pm

Eric Webb wrote:1st-year weak-moderate El Ninos via the ENS ONI. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html
NINO Winter (Another El Nino (Yes or no)?)
1864-65 (?) Yes
1868-69 No
1876-77 Yes
1880-81 No
1884-85 Yes
1887-88 Yes
1899-00 Yes
1904-05 Yes
1911-12 No
1913-14 Yes
1918-19 No
1923-24 No
1925-26 No
1929-30 Yes
1939-40 Yes
1951-52 No
1953-54 No
1963-64 No
1968-69 Yes
1976-77 No
1986-87 Yes
1994-95 No
2002-03 No
2004-05 No
2006-07 No
2014-15 Yes

Since 1865, roughly half of all weak-moderate 1st year El Ninos (13 of 25 (52%)) have went onto produce another El Nino the following year. This is exactly why you need to extend the ENSO record back into the 19th century, because if I would have used the modern era data only (1950-present) with appreciably less samples, less statistical significance, with a greater propensity to be completely dominated by multi-decadal variability, I would have gotten a figure closer to 25%.
This all means that climatologically speaking, all else considered, there's about a 50% chance of El Nino in 2019-20 if a weak El Nino develops later this year. If a +PMM develops this upcoming winter, those odds are likely even higher.


Welcome, Eric Webb, to S2K! This is great to see. He’s a great addition, folks!
Thanks for posting this interesting analysis. I have two questions:

1. Wasn’t 1867-8 a weak El Niño (at least it was per an older version of your tables) thus actually making 1868-9 a second year El Niño? Or have you since changed 1867-8 to warm neutral?

2. Shouldn’t 1976-7 be “yes” since 1977-8 was also a weak El Niño?
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9654 Postby Eric Webb » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:42 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Eric Webb wrote:1st-year weak-moderate El Ninos via the ENS ONI. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html
NINO Winter (Another El Nino (Yes or no)?)
1864-65 (?) Yes
1868-69 No
1876-77 Yes
1880-81 No
1884-85 Yes
1887-88 Yes
1899-00 Yes
1904-05 Yes
1911-12 No
1913-14 Yes
1918-19 No
1923-24 No
1925-26 No
1929-30 Yes
1939-40 Yes
1951-52 No
1953-54 No
1963-64 No
1968-69 Yes
1976-77 No
1986-87 Yes
1994-95 No
2002-03 No
2004-05 No
2006-07 No
2014-15 Yes

Since 1865, roughly half of all weak-moderate 1st year El Ninos (13 of 25 (52%)) have went onto produce another El Nino the following year. This is exactly why you need to extend the ENSO record back into the 19th century, because if I would have used the modern era data only (1950-present) with appreciably less samples, less statistical significance, with a greater propensity to be completely dominated by multi-decadal variability, I would have gotten a figure closer to 25%.
This all means that climatologically speaking, all else considered, there's about a 50% chance of El Nino in 2019-20 if a weak El Nino develops later this year. If a +PMM develops this upcoming winter, those odds are likely even higher.


Welcome, Eric Webb, to S2K! This is great to see. He’s a great addition, folks!
Thanks for posting this interesting analysis. I have two questions:

1. Wasn’t 1867-8 a weak El Niño (at least it was per an older version of your tables) thus actually making 1868-9 a second year El Niño? Or have you since changed 1867-8 to warm neutral?

2. Shouldn’t 1976-7 be “yes” since 1977-8 was also a weak El Niño?

Yeah you're correct 1976-77 should be "yes" which would bump the historical probability up to about 56%. I think it's very plausible to think that 1867-68 was also a weak El Nino event, the ENS ONI data before 1875 is heavily dampened even when you make corrections for bad data because there's an exceptional amount of spread between COBE SST2, ERSSTv5, ERSSTv4, NOAA's 20CRv2c, Kaplan Extended SSTv2, HADISST, and NOAA's 20CRv2. I would like to add at least 2-3 more datasets before 1900 (like HADISST2 (if its SST component is ever publicly released)) to increase the amplitude of the ENSO events in that portion of the record and more adequately detect spurious monthly data from available datasets. This is all dependent on when various institutions decide to release new generations of SST reconstructions, reanalyses, and/or new satellite products become available.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9655 Postby pcbjr » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:37 pm

Welcome, Eric Webb, to S2K! This is great to see. He’s a great addition, folks!

:D 8-) :P :lol:
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9656 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:@EricBlake12
The latest ECMWF model is showing a pretty strong signal for #ElNino later this year, but before taking it verbatim, remember last year’s forecast didn’t verify too well!


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1007648722086518784




I know that the Euro busted big time last year and so did a lot of other models, but as we've been saying since spring, 2017 and 2018 couldn't be more different -- beneath the ocean surface and atmospherically.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1007655930253709312


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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9657 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:57 pm

There have been cold winters in which the previous winter is La Nina like in 1911-1912, 1939-1940, 1963-1964, 1972-1973, 1976-1977, and 2009-2010.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9658 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:30 am

JB might be right about a Modoki El Nino this year, Nino 1+2 continues to cool down.

Image

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... obal_1.png
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9659 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:04 am

mrbagyo wrote:JMA wants a Modoki.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1006855795277873157




What happens to West Pacific during Modoki?




Link


Thanks.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9660 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:12 am

Is there another link to the PDO data? The Jisao site has not updated since March.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
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