NDG wrote:JB might be right about a Modoki El Nino this year, Nino 1+2 continues to cool down.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... obal_1.png
He's heavily biased towards cold and snow, calling for a modoki NINO every chance he gets because he knows it means more cold and snow for the eastern US and makes his clients happy. The long-term climate (increased frequency of CP NINOs after the 1976 climate shift), strength of the oncoming ENSO event (weak events are more likely to be or evolve into CP NINOs vs strong NINOs), and current SST configuration in the Pacific (+NPMM/-SPMM) all favor a central Pacific El Nino later this year. When you have a positive North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) event coupled to a negative South Pacific Meridional Mode, this is often a precursor to a Modoki El Nino because the former is superimposed (longitudinally) onto the CP while the latter (SPMM) often propagates into the far eastern Pacific. Both the North and South Pacific Meridional modes are forced by extratropical Rossby Waves in their respective winters, and the PDO largely communicates thru the PMM to influnece ENSO variability, the PDO doesn't directly do this in opposition to common knowledge.
See Min, Su, and Zhang (2016):
"The results show that the South Pacific meridional mode (SPMM) mainly favors the development of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas the North Pacific meridional mode (NPMM) mainly favors the development of SSTAs in the central equatorial Pacific"
"Zhang et al. (2014a) noted that the SPMM and NPMM appear to be related to different ENSO flavors in fully coupled models and observations, with the equatorial signature of the SPMM presenting similarities to the canonical El Niño and the equatorial signature of the NPMM presenting similarities to the centralPacific El Niño"
"Impact of the South and North Pacific Meridional Modes on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: Observational Analysis and Comparison"