ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 7/16/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.2C

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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9661 Postby Eric Webb » Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:17 am

NDG wrote:JB might be right about a Modoki El Nino this year, Nino 1+2 continues to cool down.

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... obal_1.png


He's heavily biased towards cold and snow, calling for a modoki NINO every chance he gets because he knows it means more cold and snow for the eastern US and makes his clients happy. The long-term climate (increased frequency of CP NINOs after the 1976 climate shift), strength of the oncoming ENSO event (weak events are more likely to be or evolve into CP NINOs vs strong NINOs), and current SST configuration in the Pacific (+NPMM/-SPMM) all favor a central Pacific El Nino later this year. When you have a positive North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) event coupled to a negative South Pacific Meridional Mode, this is often a precursor to a Modoki El Nino because the former is superimposed (longitudinally) onto the CP while the latter (SPMM) often propagates into the far eastern Pacific. Both the North and South Pacific Meridional modes are forced by extratropical Rossby Waves in their respective winters, and the PDO largely communicates thru the PMM to influnece ENSO variability, the PDO doesn't directly do this in opposition to common knowledge.

See Min, Su, and Zhang (2016):
"The results show that the South Pacific meridional mode (SPMM) mainly favors the development of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas the North Pacific meridional mode (NPMM) mainly favors the development of SSTAs in the central equatorial Pacific"

"Zhang et al. (2014a) noted that the SPMM and NPMM appear to be related to different ENSO flavors in fully coupled models and observations, with the equatorial signature of the SPMM presenting similarities to the canonical El Niño and the equatorial signature of the NPMM presenting similarities to the centralPacific El Niño"

"Impact of the South and North Pacific Meridional Modes on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: Observational Analysis and Comparison"
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0063.1
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9662 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:54 am

Hey Eric, so glad you joined the forum! Love reading all of your research on ENSO. Keep up the good work!
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9663 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:53 pm

I ask those who know a lot about ENSO this question. Are the trade winds more stronger? I ask because I see the CDAS readings of all four regions going down. Niño 1+2 looks like a thundra.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9664 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 17, 2018 3:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:I ask those who are better knowleagble about ENSO this question. Are the trade winds more stronger? I ask because I see the CDAS readings of all four regions going down. Niño 1+2 looks like a thundra.


If weekly SST buoy readings can become noisy, imagine satellite readings (CDAS) that update 2-4 times a day. Sustained +/- readings from CDAS is a pretty good tool to see certain trends however.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9665 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:29 pm

Eric Webb wrote:
NDG wrote:JB might be right about a Modoki El Nino this year, Nino 1+2 continues to cool down.

https://i.imgur.com/J4sKR7p.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... obal_1.png


He's heavily biased towards cold and snow, calling for a modoki NINO every chance he gets because he knows it means more cold and snow for the eastern US and makes his clients happy. The long-term climate (increased frequency of CP NINOs after the 1976 climate shift), strength of the oncoming ENSO event (weak events are more likely to be or evolve into CP NINOs vs strong NINOs), and current SST configuration in the Pacific (+NPMM/-SPMM) all favor a central Pacific El Nino later this year. When you have a positive North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) event coupled to a negative South Pacific Meridional Mode, this is often a precursor to a Modoki El Nino because the former is superimposed (longitudinally) onto the CP while the latter (SPMM) often propagates into the far eastern Pacific. Both the North and South Pacific Meridional modes are forced by extratropical Rossby Waves in their respective winters, and the PDO largely communicates thru the PMM to influnece ENSO variability, the PDO doesn't directly do this in opposition to common knowledge.

See Min, Su, and Zhang (2016):
"The results show that the South Pacific meridional mode (SPMM) mainly favors the development of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas the North Pacific meridional mode (NPMM) mainly favors the development of SSTAs in the central equatorial Pacific"

"Zhang et al. (2014a) noted that the SPMM and NPMM appear to be related to different ENSO flavors in fully coupled models and observations, with the equatorial signature of the SPMM presenting similarities to the canonical El Niño and the equatorial signature of the NPMM presenting similarities to the centralPacific El Niño"

"Impact of the South and North Pacific Meridional Modes on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: Observational Analysis and Comparison"
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0063.1


Thanks for the explanation. I have been wondering about the cooler waters south of the equator (SPMM) if it had any effect on the ENSO, it does make sense that it does just as much as the state of the NPMM.
Regarding JB, yes, I know that he is heavily biased towards anything that could indicate a cold and snowy winter for the eastern US 8-)
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Re: ENSO: CPC Diagnostic June update=El Niño Watch is issued

#9666 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:47 pm

NDG wrote:JB might be right about a Modoki El Nino this year, Nino 1+2 continues to cool down.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/J4sKR7p.gif[img]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... obal_1.png


If I'm not mistaken, the current eQBO makes conditions more favorable for a Modoki/west-based event since it shifts convection and the Walker circulation to the west.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9667 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:06 am

BOM up to +0.3C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9668 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:12 am

It looks like is going to be up to at least +0.2C with Nino 1+2 cooling down to at least -0.9C
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 6/18/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C / Niño 1+2 down to -1.0C

#9669 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:42 am

CPC weekly update of 6/18/18 has Niño 3.4 warming up to +0.2C and that is up from the 0.0C that was for two weeks in a row. On the contrary,Niño 1+2 is cooling down to -1.0C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 6/18/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C / Niño 1+2 down to -1.0C

#9670 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:29 am

:uarrow: Note that despite the 0.2 warming in Niño 3.4, the upper OHC actually cooled a bit to +0.82 after having been near +1.0 in late May. So, perhaps that means any further warming over the next couple of months will be slow overall. I’m still thinking only warm neutral for ASO based largely on the warm biased May Eurosip’s only warm neutral ASO forecast followed by warming to weak to low end moderate El Niño later in fall to winter.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 6/18/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C / Niño 1+2 down to -1.0C

#9671 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:51 am

I'm still sticking to the 'statistical' cold neutral call, even though it appears to be dead wrong. :lol:
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 6/18/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C / Niño 1+2 down to -1.0C

#9672 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:52 am

Traditional base or Modoki looking like it'll be equally destructive for the WPAC. When's the last time this basin was calm? :eek: El nino makes it worse.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 6/18/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C / Niño 1+2 down to -1.0C

#9673 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:05 am

euro6208 wrote:Traditional base or Modoki looking like it'll be equally destructive for the WPAC. When's the last time this basin was calm? :eek: El nino makes it worse.


In relation to normals, the May Eurosip is predicting the most active region to be the central Pacific. So, be extra wary in Hawaii!
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 6/18/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C / Niño 1+2 down to -1.0C

#9674 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:23 am

euro6208 wrote:Traditional base or Modoki looking like it'll be equally destructive for the WPAC. When's the last time this basin was calm? :eek: El nino makes it worse.



Looks more modoki than traditional

Is the WPAC being suppressed by TUTTs like last year, or is it something different?
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 6/18/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C / Niño 1+2 down to -1.0C

#9675 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:32 pm

@PaulRoundy1
Subsurface warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to intensify. #ElNiño


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https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1008757251455283200
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 6/18/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C / Niño 1+2 down to -1.0C

#9676 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:05 pm

:uarrow: They keep showing those warm subsurface waters close to Nino 1+2, I don't think those are going to surface with strong trade winds continuing in that area, IMO.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 6/18/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C / Niño 1+2 down to -1.0C

#9677 Postby Eric Webb » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:08 pm

NDG wrote::uarrow: They keep showing those warm subsurface waters close to Nino 1+2, I don't think those are going to surface with strong trade winds continuing in that area, IMO.


The strong trade winds are temporary, they'll die down in a day or so and the waters will likely warm precipitously thereafter

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Re: ENSO: BOM El Niño WATCH activated

#9678 Postby Twisted-core » Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:39 am

El Niño WATCH; chance of El Niño in spring increases to 50%
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, latest model outlooks and recent warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicates that the chance of El Niño forming in spring has increased. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has moved to El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means that the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2018 is approximately 50%; double the normal chance.

Oceanic indicators are currently neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña—but show some signs of potential El Niño development. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, though currently neutral, have been slowly warming since April. Importantly, waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific are now warmer than average—a common precursor to El Niño.

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau forecast the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to warm but stay in the neutral range during July and August. However, five of eight models indicate the ocean warmth is likely to reach El Niño thresholds in the southern hemisphere spring, while a sixth model falls just short.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 6/18/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C / Niño 1+2 down to -1.0C

#9679 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:01 am

Eric Webb wrote:
NDG wrote::uarrow: They keep showing those warm subsurface waters close to Nino 1+2, I don't think those are going to surface with strong trade winds continuing in that area, IMO.


The strong trade winds are temporary, they'll die down in a day or so and the waters will likely warm precipitously thereafter

[img]http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif[img]


We're also likely to see another substantial WWB come up on the GFS/Euro 850mb wind Hovmollers soon. The past 10 days the SOI has come in much more negative than what the Euro originally had in its forecast on June 11th.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 6/18/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C / Niño 1+2 down to -1.0C

#9680 Postby Eric Webb » Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:47 am

LarryWx wrote::uarrow: Note that despite the 0.2 warming in Niño 3.4, the upper OHC actually cooled a bit to +0.82 after having been near +1.0 in late May. So, perhaps that means any further warming over the next couple of months will be slow overall. I’m still thinking only warm neutral for ASO based largely on the warm biased May Eurosip’s only warm neutral ASO forecast followed by warming to weak to low end moderate El Niño later in fall to winter.


I would hardly call this a substantial drop, nor would I argue we even reached +1.0 in late May, the value was closer to +0.9 than +1.0. I wouldn't over analyze every increase or fall over a 2-3 week period in upper oceanic heat content & assume it will make a huge difference in the long run, especially one this small. If this crash were to be sustained for several weeks then it would certainly make a significant difference, but remember that ENSO evolves slowly over periods of several months or more, I doubt this will really mean anything unless OHC continues to come down for another 3-4 weeks (at least). We also had more WWBs recently so it's bound to stabilize or increase again. The ocean which carries "ENSO" memory between its respective phases, evolves much more slowly than the overlying atmosphere, and it usually takes weeks for a change in atmospheric surface winds due to sub-seasonal forcing (the MJO & CCKW) to reflect onto the ocean in the large-scale. Also keep in mind the Eq Pacific still has a lot of room to play catch up the next few months and the downwelling Kelvin Wave is just now reaching the eastern boundary region (South America) and will soon refract against it, spreading anomalously warm water westward in the process (in the form of slower moving Rossby Waves).

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