ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO: Bom update 31/7

#9921 Postby Twisted-core » Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:31 am

El Niño WATCH continues
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. While the central Pacific Ocean has cooled very slightly in the past fortnight, more than half of international climate models predict warming to recommence in the coming weeks, and El Niño likely to develop in spring. Therefore, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2018; double the normal chance.

Oceanic ENSO indicators remain neutral. The surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled slightly in the past fortnight but remains warmer than average. Likewise, the water below the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific has also cooled recently, but remains warmer than average. Atmospheric indicators such as the trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), remain neutral.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9922 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:43 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9923 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:40 pm

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... orecasters

In case you haven’t heard, there is now a 70% chance of an El Niño this winter. Having a confident prediction of El Niño this far ahead is quite a feat for the seasonal forecasting community. One reason ENSO is predictable six to nine months ahead of time is the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) (1) and the related Pacific Meridional Mode (2). But, these precursors are unable to answer another critical question about El Niño: What will be the flavor of the El Niño event – i.e., a stronger, Eastern Pacific (EP) type (1997-1998 in example below) or a weaker, Central Pacific (CP) event (2004-2005 in example below) (3)? For that, I contend, you have to look to the South Pacific, a region that has received little attention in past ENSO studies. And the South Pacific suggests, if an El Niño forms this year, it will be a “weak” or CP event.


from a guy who happens to be my college adviser
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9924 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:47 pm

:uarrow: Interesting stuff Evan, thanks for sharing that.

I'm thinking that TD 10 in the East Pac could help to at least slow down the trade winds along the Equator.

Euro shows much weaker than normal trade winds dominating in much of the ENSO region over the next week.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9925 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:52 pm

Ouch!! ENSO cooling continues so far this week.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9926 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2018 5:49 am

@MJVentrice
Yes, agreed. The El Nino standing wave appears to have emerged with this most recent MJO passage across the Pacific. This is not a canonical east-based El Nino; it appears to be a basin wide event, which many call the Modoki. 2006 and 2009 are most recent events similar to today


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1025331762333929472


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9927 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:56 am

Loop of the past seven days, per the buoys Nino 3 continues to cool down with -0.4C now appearing just north of the equator.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9928 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:14 pm

Hector will probably slow down the trades in the CPAC even further next week.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9929 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:51 pm

Nino 1+2 positive for the first time since mid-May.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9930 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:55 pm

Interesting in contrast to prior per the buoys it is south of the Equator keeping Nino 3.4 up (otherwise it will go down even lower Monday without) and the northern side that was warmest prior have cooled. So another point or two down next update most likely. Some of it is also changing climo, this time of season tends to see shifts until the Equinox.

Trades overall are below normal and will remain so
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9931 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:04 pm

Ntxw wrote:Interesting in contrast to prior per the buoys it is south of the Equator keeping Nino 3.4 up (otherwise it will go down even lower Monday without) and the northern side that was warmest prior have cooled. So another point or two down next update most likely. Some of it is also changing climo, this time of season tends to see shifts until the Equinox.

Trades overall are below normal and will remain so


But still need that WWB to turn it around, correct?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9932 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:06 pm

NDG wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Interesting in contrast to prior per the buoys it is south of the Equator keeping Nino 3.4 up (otherwise it will go down even lower Monday without) and the northern side that was warmest prior have cooled. So another point or two down next update most likely. Some of it is also changing climo, this time of season tends to see shifts until the Equinox.

Trades overall are below normal and will remain so


But still need that WWB to turn it around, correct?


Yes still need to get a true WWB event still to get over the 0.5C barrier I think. Otherwise will continue to hover back and forth from 0C to 0.4C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9933 Postby StruThiO » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:44 am

ONI for MJJ is 0.1C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9934 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:47 am

StruThiO wrote:ONI for MJJ is 0.1C


Here is the link.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... ONI_v5.php
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for MJJ up to +0.1C

#9935 Postby CaliforniaResident » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:42 am

SST hit 80F on Scripps Pier in San Diego and have sustained mid 70s for most of July. This is a signature of a pending El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9936 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:31 am

StruThiO wrote:ONI for MJJ is 0.1C


Based on a combination of the just released +0.1C MJJ ONI and July OHC of +0.81, will there be El Niño later this year (based on the ONI table) and into the winter? History back to 1979 says likely but 2012 says look at me as I didn’t become El Niño. Other than 2012, all years with July OHC near or warmer than July of 2018’s +0.81 and similar or warmer 3.4 SSTs (1989 was too cool at surface to count as analog) went on to become El Niño if they weren’t already. The closest analogs (those not yet at +0.5 in MJJ for ONI) are 2004, 2006, 2009, and 2012. 3 of these 4 went on to El Niño later in the year. El Niño has to still be favored imo but 2012 says don’t bet the ranch on it just yet.
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for MJJ up to +0.1C

#9937 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:50 am

El Niño is in trouble in the short term, Niño 3.4 down to +0.1C, Niño 3 down to 0C
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for MJJ up to +0.1C

#9938 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:52 am

0.1C at the update later as NDG said
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for MJJ up to +0.1C

#9939 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:41 am

NDG wrote:El Niño is in trouble in the short term, Niño 3.4 down to +0.1C, Niño 3 down to 0C


Indeed. I think “short term” is the key. I still think odds favor El Niño eventually in 2018 (I think near the SON trimonth) being that OHC held pretty decently near +0.75. But as mentioned, 2012 still says don’t bet the ranch either.

Edit: Reminder: the last several monthly Eurosip forecasts had a delay in Niño 3.4 warming starting about now/late summer. So,this is no surprise. This appears to me to be El Niño “delayed but not denied”, which has actually been expected per modeling.
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for MJJ up to +0.1C

#9940 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:08 am

LarryWx wrote:
NDG wrote:El Niño is in trouble in the short term, Niño 3.4 down to +0.1C, Niño 3 down to 0C


Indeed. I think “short term” is the key. I still think odds favor El Niño eventually in 2018 (I think near the SON trimonth) being that OHC held pretty decently near +0.75. But as mentioned, 2012 still says don’t bet the ranch either.

Edit: Reminder: the last several monthly Eurosip forecasts had a delay in Niño 3.4 warming starting about now/late summer. So,this is no surprise. This appears to me to be El Niño “delayed but not denied”, which has actually been expected per modeling.


The Australian model did very well, was the only one that showed Nino 3.4 cooling down, I believe.
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