ENSO Updates

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LarryWx
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9961 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:22 pm

Tomorrow's Darwin SLP will be higher than today's 1013.35. The highest of 2018 to date is 1014.85. Darwin will peak on Tuesday 8/14 at least at around 1015.80 and quite possibly as high as 1016-1016.25. That would make it the highest daily there since way back on 10/4/15 during that super Nino.

Could the 8/14 end up as the highest of all of 2018 at Darwin? With no other day currently forecasted to be that high on any current or very recent model, it is quite possible. Going back to 1991, the high of the year has occurred about equally in June, July, and August. The 9 years with August highs have all occurred within 8/5-19. However, one year (2003) had a high of the year past August. That was on Sept. 4 though it was only 1015.50. Then again, even though they weren't the highs of the year there have been four years with 1015.95+ after August and all 4 were Nino years:

- 1997 (super-Nino) had a 1016.85 secondary peak on Sept. 18
- 2004 (weak Nino) had a 1015.95 secondary peak on Sept. 13
- 2006 (late starting weak Nino) had a 1016.45 secondary peak on Oct.13
- 2015 (super-Nino) had a 1016.85 secondary peak on Oct. 4

So, I wouldn't bet the ranch on 8/14 being the peak of the entire 2018 despite it quite possibly ending up being just that.

Let's say that 8/14/18 exceeds 1016. How many years between 1991 and 2017 didn't exceed 1016? 1992,1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 (El Nino year that peaked at only 1015.50 and the only one that peaked lower than 1016.00), 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2017....so 13 of those 27 years or about half of them. All but 2 of then were either La Nina or cold neutral.

El Nino year Darwin daily peaks:

- 1991: 1016.10 (June)
- 1994: 1017.85 (August)
- 1997: 1017.45 (August)
- 2002: 1016.45 (July)
- 2004: 1018.35 (June) (highest Darwin daily of any year of any ENSO back to 1991)
- 2006: 1016.65 (August)
- 2009: 1015.50 (July) (lowest Darwin peak for El Nino year back to 1991)
- 2014: 1016.60 (August)
- 2015: 1017.10 (June)
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9962 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:16 am

Update for this week will be:

Nino 3.4 up to +0.2C
Nino 4 up to +0.5C
Nino 3 down to -0.1C
Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C
Last edited by NDG on Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9963 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:51 am

3.4 nudged up to 0.2C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9964 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:10 am

Currently nothing close to a developing traditional El Nino.

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/13/18: Niño 3.4 is up to +0.2C

#9965 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:53 am

Text of CPC Weekly update with Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/13/18: Niño 3.4 is up to +0.2C

#9966 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:23 am

Nino 4 recent warm up will be short lived, GFS and Euro agree on EWB across the central Pacific over the next few days.

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/13/18: Niño 3.4 is up to +0.2C

#9967 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:35 am

cycloneye wrote:Text of CPC Weekly update with Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


Something looks off when comparing the region 3 SST anomalies and the surface layer of the 8/6/18 pentad centered based “Eq. Subsurface Temp. Anomalies” map on the left side of page 12. Note how warm it is between 110W and 150W. Region 3 extends from 90W to 150W. If that map were accurate, that should easily be warm enough to result in a Niño 3 SST anomaly at least a few tenths warmer than the -0.1 that was just reported. OTOH, the SST anomaly maps for 8/1 and 8/8 on the right side of the lower part of page 8 do jibe with the -0.1. So, I’m assuming it is the surface portion of the subsurface map on page 12 that is off.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/13/18: Niño 3.4 is up to +0.2C

#9968 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:01 am

LarryWx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Text of CPC Weekly update with Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


Something looks off when comparing the region 3 SST anomalies and the surface layer of the 8/6/18 pentad centered based “Eq. Subsurface Temp. Anomalies” map on the left side of page 12. Note how warm it is between 110W and 150W. Region 3 extends from 90W to 150W. If that map were accurate, that should easily be warm enough to result in a Niño 3 SST anomaly at least a few tenths warmer than the -0.1 that was just reported. OTOH, the SST anomaly maps for 8/1 and 8/8 on the right side of the lower part of page 8 do jibe with the -0.1. So, I’m assuming it is the surface portion of the subsurface map on page 12 that is off.


Are you talking about the subsurface temp images on page 8? I always find them to be too warm when it comes to showing temps on color isotherms at or near the surface. The surface SSTs maps to go by are the ones on page 8 as you mentioned, the ares buoys agree with the image on page 8.

Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/13/18: Niño 3.4 is up to +0.2C

#9969 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:13 am

NDG wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Text of CPC Weekly update with Niño 3.4 up to +0.2C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


Something looks off when comparing the region 3 SST anomalies and the surface layer of the 8/6/18 pentad centered based “Eq. Subsurface Temp. Anomalies” map on the left side of page 12. Note how warm it is between 110W and 150W. Region 3 extends from 90W to 150W. If that map were accurate, that should easily be warm enough to result in a Niño 3 SST anomaly at least a few tenths warmer than the -0.1 that was just reported. OTOH, the SST anomaly maps for 8/1 and 8/8 on the right side of the lower part of page 8 do jibe with the -0.1. So, I’m assuming it is the surface portion of the subsurface map on page 12 that is off.


Are you talking about the subsurface temp images on page 8? I always find them to be too warm when it comes to showing temps on color isotherms at or near the surface. The surface SSTs maps to go by are the ones on page 8 as you mentioned, the ares buoys agree with the image on page 8.

Image


NDG,
I’m talking about the subsurface anomalies maps, but they are on page 12 rather than page 8 per my browser. We must be talking about the same maps. Otherwise, I agree with you 100%. Something is majorly off with at least the surface layer of those subsurface maps!

Edit: This is starting to make me wonder if there is a major flaw in the subsurface maps, period. Admittedly though, the surface layer in region 4 does seem to jibe well with the reported +0.5 SST anomaly of 4.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 8/13/18: Niño 3.4 is up to +0.2C

#9970 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:12 pm

Here's my take:

Blue circle shows that in the short term, there's no longer enough warmth at the subsurface to really propel SST's in the Nino regions 3 and 1+2 towards Nino levels. Thus I don't see any El Nino negating effects for the Atlantic hurricane season (although local variables like the AMO and PV activity may continue to keep the Atlantic quiet regardless).

Red circle shows that in the long term there will be more chances at an El Nino later on this year, and if not this year then an even bigger chance next year -- especially if we dont see a strong upwelling Kelvin wave emerge. We usually get a seasonal MJO triggered strong large scale WWB's around February, and if the status quo remains the same (the OHC remains this high) then we'll potentially see a strong 2014-esque downwelling Kelvin be triggered.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9971 Postby Twisted-core » Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:55 pm

Image
ENSO Wrap-Up
Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans
14 August 2018

Little change in the tropical Pacific; El Niño remains possible in 2018
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. While the tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled in the past month, most international climate models forecast warming to resume in the coming weeks, with El Niño development possible in the southern spring. Therefore, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2018; double the normal chance.

While the surface of the central to eastern tropical Pacific has cooled over the past month, the water below the surface of the western Pacific is warming again. Although atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remain neutral, tropical cyclones to the north of the equator are acting to increase the warmth in the Pacific by suppressing trade winds.

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict warming of the tropical Pacific is likely to recommence in the coming weeks. Most models suggest El Niño thresholds are likely to be reached by the end of the year, with the majority suggesting these thresholds could be met by mid to late spring.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?utm ... 7c2ec6f677
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9972 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:43 am

So when I looked at previous years, using only previous trends, no science or even an educated guess, I said we would probably be slightly cold neutral at least until the end of the year. How close are we to that? Scratch that question, the link above summarizes it nicely. Warm Neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9973 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:32 am

Definitely no El Nino developing before the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9974 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:39 am

The buoys have warmed some west of 120W so we may see a small uptick next week but too early to say for certain until the end of the week. Easterly anomalies will take over the next 1-2 weeks so that will likely put the brakes on additional warming during that period
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9975 Postby StruThiO » Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:01 pm

Ocean still wants it to happen.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9976 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:09 pm

StruThiO wrote:Ocean still wants it to happen.

[img]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkd20eq2_anm.gif[img]


Yeah. Almost time to also pass on the 2012 comparisons.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9977 Postby NotSparta » Wed Aug 15, 2018 2:13 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Ocean still wants it to happen.

[img]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkd20eq2_anm.gif[ig]


Yeah. Almost time to also pass on the 2012 comparisons.


It's more like 2014, imo
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9978 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:17 pm

It looks like Lane in the EPAC could help to weaken the trades some over the next week or so. Similar to Hector.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9979 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:22 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:It looks like Lane in the EPAC could help to weaken the trades some over the next week or so. Similar to Hector.


Yeah those trades on the GFS might be cut short.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9980 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:00 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:It looks like Lane in the EPAC could help to weaken the trades some over the next week or so. Similar to Hector.


Yeah those trades on the GFS might be cut short.


If Lane is on both the GFS and Euro’s forecast they both would had been showing the weakening of equatorial trades by now, last week’s Pacific equatorial WWB also had to do with the much lower pressures near Tahiti from a Southern Hemisphere storm.
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