ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9981 Postby WAcyclone » Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:30 am

Here's a graphic showing the ECMWF pressure forecasts for Darwin and Tahiti based on the 00z run. Although it looks like mostly positive SOI values are predicted, the 30-day average may only rise slowly due to positive values from July getting omitted from the average.

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Source: weather.us
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9982 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:52 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9983 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:19 pm

WAcyclone wrote:Here's a graphic showing the ECMWF pressure forecasts for Darwin and Tahiti based on the 00z run. Although it looks like mostly positive SOI values are predicted, the 30-day average may only rise slowly due to positive values from July getting omitted from the average.

Image

Source: weather.us


So in another words the SOI will end up in the neutral phase this month which is what ENSO is currently is and most likely stay through September.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9984 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:26 pm

NDG wrote:
WAcyclone wrote:Here's a graphic showing the ECMWF pressure forecasts for Darwin and Tahiti based on the 00z run. Although it looks like mostly positive SOI values are predicted, the 30-day average may only rise slowly due to positive values from July getting omitted from the average.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/QMN6bU6g.png[mg]

Source: weather.us


So in another words the SOI will end up in the neutral phase this month which is what ENSO is currently is and most likely stay through September.


I would say ENSO is warm neutral at the sub surface while the atmosphere is trending towards an El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9985 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:00 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
WAcyclone wrote:Here's a graphic showing the ECMWF pressure forecasts for Darwin and Tahiti based on the 00z run. Although it looks like mostly positive SOI values are predicted, the 30-day average may only rise slowly due to positive values from July getting omitted from the average.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/QMN6bU6g.png[mg]

Source: weather.us


So in another words the SOI will end up in the neutral phase this month which is what ENSO is currently is and most likely stay through September.


I would say ENSO is warm neutral at the sub surface while the atmosphere is trending towards an El Nino.


I would say that that the atmosphere has been more warm neutral than dead on neutral, the fact that FL has had a very wet summer so far is a good proof of it which most times happens during El Ninos, the very high shear over the Caribbean during July is another testament which usually does not happen during cool neutral years. The current brief cool down or warming pause should make shear stay lower through September.
I have always believed that the atmosphere (weather patterns) controls the SSTs, not the other way around, IMO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9986 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:01 am

The buoys if they hold looks like a bump up come Monday. Kind of crazy the sloshing, wild swings from warm to cool and back to warm in some areas. Shows the variances involved with cold and warm eddies in different regions and how quickly it shifts. Not only with moving water, but also changing climo in a season of transition, in tenths of a degree..

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9987 Postby StruThiO » Sat Aug 18, 2018 5:55 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9988 Postby Twisted-core » Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:The buoys if they hold looks like a bump up come Monday. Kind of crazy the sloshing, wild swings from warm to cool and back to warm in some areas. Shows the variances involved with cold and warm eddies in different regions and how quickly it shifts. Not only with moving water, but also changing climo in a season of transition, in tenths of a degree..

Image


Notable on that plot is the westerly winds anoms in the kelvin wave generation area.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9989 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:07 am

Will be 0.4C at the update. All regions warmed
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9990 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:16 am

Ntxw wrote:Will be 0.4C at the update. All regions warmed


And that WWB over the region about a week ago really helped to warm up the subsurface waters too. Some 4+C anomalies are now showing up about 100-200m below 160W.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9991 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:23 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Will be 0.4C at the update. All regions warmed


And that WWB over the region about a week ago really helped to warm up the subsurface waters too. Some 4+C anomalies are now showing up about 100-200m below 160W.


The hovmollers forecasted trades have not been as strong in the closer range vs long range. What was decent EWB forecast turned out to be less. Another EWB is forecasted east of the dateline. We'll have to see if that comes to fruition.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9992 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:25 am

Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Will be 0.4C at the update. All regions warmed


And that WWB over the region about a week ago really helped to warm up the subsurface waters too. Some 4+C anomalies are now showing up about 100-200m below 160W.


The hovmollers forecasted trades have not been as strong in the closer range vs long range. What was decent EWB forecast turned out to be less. Another EWB is forecasted east of the dateline. We'll have to see if that comes to fruition.


Yep I've noticed that as well. The background state continues to slowly shift towards El Nino.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C (All areas up including Niño 1+2)

#9993 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:31 am

CPC Weekly update has Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C and has all the areas in positive.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C (All areas up including Niño 1+2)

#9994 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:33 am

Anomaly slide from that PDF

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C (All areas up including Niño 1+2)

#9995 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:08 am

That 0.8C is about as good as it gets for a modoki at 4. It is essentially a dateline Nino considering. One of the strongest "dateline" forcing ninos of recent was 2009 late in the fall and winter.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C (All areas up including Niño 1+2)

#9996 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:43 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C (All areas up including Niño 1+2)

#9997 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:49 am

Posted this in the Lane thread but perhaps might be of value here also. North of the equator in the NHEM rising motion and convection in the Central and Eastern tropical Pacific is putting on a show. Considering discussions of the walker circulation of where convection this time of year in a non +ENSO is usually devoid of due to SSTs below 28C to sustain.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9998 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:01 am

@MJVentrice
Another strong downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave has developed in the central Pacific. This downwelling phase is of higher amplitude of its predecessor back in Feb-Mar, which transitioned the Pacific out of La Nina.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032283755879247872


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9999 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:58 pm

@MJVentrice
The Pacific Ocean is in a loading state... The thermocline is deepening in the central Pacific via the development of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. SSTAs +4C are seen just east of the Date Line, sub-surface. This warmth will push eastward with time (Kelvin wave dynamics).


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032792625760354304


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Re: ENSO Updates

#10000 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:03 am

South Texas Storms called it. Lane has stunted the easterlies over the dateline and the CPAC.

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