Madagascar: Indlala (19S): Dissipated

[HURAKAN]

Becoming better organized.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yet Another System in the Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Becoming much better organized. Center of low pressure is becoming more defined and convection is developing over and around the center of the disturbance. La Reunion and Mauritius should begin to pay a closer attention to this disturbed area.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 101241

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/12/20062007
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12

2.A POSITION 2007/03/10 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 61.8E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/11 00 UTC: 14.8S/59.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/03/11 12 UTC: 14.2S/58.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/03/12 00 UTC: 14.0S/58.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/03/12 12 UTC: 14.3S/57.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2007/03/13 00 UTC: 14.7S/55.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2007/03/13 12 UTC: 15.1S/54.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=1.5+
THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS RATHER LARGE PRESENTING A MONSOON LOW
FEATURE WITH STRONGEST WINDS RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER MAINLY LOCATED IN
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE (10 MN AVERAGE
WINDS UP TO 30KT AT ST-BRANDON ISLAND AT 1200UTC).
ENVIRONMENT IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHLY FAVOURABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
, GOOD LOW LAYERS INFLOW BUT WITH BAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DRY AIR
POLEWARD IN THE LOW AND THE MIDDLE LAYERS.
NEVERTHELESS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS TO REACH THE MINIMAL STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND THEN
TO STAY AT THIS INTENSITY DURING THE 36 HOURS BEYOND LINKED TO A BUILDING
EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS AT 5 TO 10KT.
THE NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS LOW, SOME OF THEM DEEPEN IT GRADUALLY AT
MEDIUM RANGE AS THEY MAKE IT TRACK WESTWARDS.

[Chacor]

And from 101230Z March

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
65.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100942Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
FLARING NEAR AND OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THIS DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF A 200 MB
ANTICYCLONE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC HAS
IMPROVED AND CONVECTION IS FLARING NEAR THE CENTER, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to develop.

[HURAKAN]

Next name: Indlada

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 110116

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/12/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2007/03/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 59.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/11 12 UTC: 15.4S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/03/12 00 UTC: 15.1S/56.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2007/03/12 12 UTC: 15.0S/55.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/03/13 00 UTC: 15.2S/54.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2007/03/13 12 UTC: 15.7S/52.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2007/03/14 00 UTC: 16.0S/51.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0+.
DEEP CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING AND CONCENTRATING ABOVE A LLCC
INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED.
ENVIRONMENT IS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHLY FAVOURABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
, GOOD LOW LAYERS INFLOW BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AND TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS,
FIRST TRACKING WESTNORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESURES, THEN CURVING WESTSOUTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
(TROUGH FAR IN THE SOUTH).
THE NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS LOW, SOME OF THEM DEEPEN IT GRADUALLY AT
MEDIUM RANGE AS THEY MAKE IT TRACK WESTWARDS.
RSMC FORECAST IS RESULTING FROM AVALAIBLE MODELS CONSENSUS AND
PERSISTENCE.

[HURAKAN]

Partially exposed but beginning to look more and more like a tropical cyclone. Nice banding features developing especially in the western side.

[CrazyC83]

I'd call it a tropical depression now...

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 110607

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/12/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12

2.A POSITION 2007/03/11 AT 0600 UTC :
13.4S / 59.0E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/11 18 UTC: 13.6S/58.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/03/12 06 UTC: 13.7S/58.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2007/03/12 18 UTC: 14.0S/57.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/03/13 06 UTC: 14.4S/56.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2007/03/13 18 UTC: 14.7S/55.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/03/14 06 UTC: 15.1S/54.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-.
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFYED DURING THE NIGTH, CONVECTION DEEPENING AND
CIRCULATION BETTER DEFINIED, BUT IT SHOWS NOW A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH
THE CENTER COMPLETLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.
NEAR GALE FORCE EXTENSION IS GEATER IN THE SOUTH PART DUE TO THE GRADIANT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

GOOD LOW LAYERS INFLOW BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY WITH THE WEAKING OF THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS VERY SLOWLY DUE TO THE
RIDGE PRESENT OVER MADAGASCAR IN THE BEGINING OF FORECAST, THEN TRACKING
WESTSOUTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE (TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST).

[HURAKAN]

Convection now developing over the LLC. If the system continues to organize a bit more, an upgrade to cyclone could be made sooner rather than later.

[HURAKAN]

Could be upgraded real soon as convection continues to blossom over the center. Something against the system is the absence of defined rainbands (especially in the eastern side) but that is because the shear affecting the disturbance.

[HURAKAN]

[marq=up][font=Trebuchet]NOW WE HAVE A CYCLONE!!![/font][/marq]

MARCH 11 2007 1900Z
.
13.2S 58.4E T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS 95S
.
PAST POSITIONS...13.3S 59.1E 11/0830Z VIS/IRDAY
14.8S 60.0E 10/1900Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS...95S IS NOW UNDER DEEP CONVECTIVE CORE AS PER RECENT
1827Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS. MULTIPLE BANDS APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING
AS WELL..MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE..AS SEEN IN
MICROWAVE AND MET-7 IMAGERY. DT=3.0 BASED ON 6 TENTHS BANDING.
MET AND PT ARE ALSO 3.0.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NMI.

[HURAKAN]

[Calasanjy]

Yeah, I'd be surprised if NRL/JTWC didn't upgrade to 19S within the next couple hours, and Mauritius to Indlada. Currently, it has the signature of about a 45-50 knot tropical storm on satellite. Anyway, who do you think should be paying more attention to this storm, Madagascar or Reunion? It's now heading almost due west toward the Malagasy coastline, but some models show an eventual curve toward the south or southeast.

Since it seems Cyclone Indlada is indeed on the way, I'd also be interested in knowing if anyone here would know how to correctly pronounce the name Indlada. The official list of names indicates it was proposed by Swaziland, so I'm not sure how phonetics work in the language of that country. I wish they would provide a pronunciation guide for the SWIO names like they do the WPAC names, so I can be confident I'm not butchering the cyclone's name when I say it.

[HURAKAN]

Right now it seems Madagascar should pay a great deal of attention to the system. In my track the center doesn't make landfall, but it passes real close, and part of the island is inside the cone of uncertainty. Moreover, the system is developing as we speak, and usually the first forecast is not the best. Nevertheless, La Reunion should watch the system in case is comes closer than expected and a Gamade-like situation evolves. The best we can hope right now is the system to go between both islands.

[P.K.]

Just named Moderate Tropical Storm Indlada. 35kt winds, 995hPa central pressure.

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 120014

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/12/20062007
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12

2.A POSITION 2007/03/12 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 58.0E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/12 12 UTC: 13.5S/57.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2007/03/13 00 UTC: 13.7S/56.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2007/03/13 12 UTC: 13.7S/54.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2007/03/14 00 UTC: 13.7S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2007/03/14 12 UTC: 15.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 15.9S/51.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+
THE SYSTEM HAS RE-ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY 1400UTC PRESENTING SIGNS
OF
INTENSIFICATION AND THE LLCC IS LOCATED AGAIN UNDER THE DEEP
CONVECTION
(CF MICROWAVE SSMIS 1634Z IMAGERY AND AMSU N17 1827UTC) AND IS NAMED
TODAY AT 0000UTC AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
STRONGEST WINDS EXTENTION IS MORE IMPORTANT IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE
GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
LOW LAYER INFLOW IS GOOD AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS CLEARLY WEAKENING AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW SHOWS
AN
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
INTENSIFYING
GRADUALLY AND THEN TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 48 HOURS TOWARDS
A
TROUGH SHIPPING IN THE SOUTH.=