http://metservice.intnet.mu/wsoutluk.htm
The behaviour of all indicators and taking into consideration analogue patterns previously observed, the conclusion is that there is a high probability that cyclone activity during the 2006-2007 summer season will be normal, with about 10 named storms. Most of the formations will be in the region west of Diego Garcia with at least one in the Mozambique Channel. The probability of a named tropical storm to evolve in the South West Indian Ocean before the end of October 2006 still exists.
All named storms that will develop in the South West Indian Ocean will NOT necessarily be direct hits to the islands of the Republic of Mauritius. However, there is a strong likelihood that at least a named system could pass within 100 km radius of either Mauritius or Rodrigues provoking cyclonic conditions.
Season total:
10 named storms up to Jaya
Only three named storms out of 15 systems formed east of Diego Garcia - Gamede, Humba, Jaya
One storm formed in the Mozambique Channel - Anita
One system passed within 100 km of Mauritius or Rodrigues - Enok made almost a direct hit on Rodrigues. Dora also came close, 188 km east on 6 Feb and 178 km south of Rodrigues on 7 Feb.
Luck, or genius? I imagine it must take quite some skill to get it so perfect!
