South China Sea: INVEST 99W (TCFA)

[Chacor]

930
TPPN10 PGTW 311246

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH CHINA SEA

B. 31/1130Z

C. 10.4N/5

D. 114.7E/3

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS (31/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .20 ON
LOG 10 SPIRAL FOR DT OF 1.0. PT SUPPORTS. DBO DT.

TORREY

It looked better earlier, but here's the latest IR...

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECMWF is going bananas on this system. They have been consistently forecasting a TC for the last 4 days. The latest run shows a monster near Hainan Island and Vietnam in about 5 days time.

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7N 115.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING
WITH PERISTENT CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A
311025Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE ARE ALSO SOUTH OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. RECENT PRESSURE FALLS IN THE AREA ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 MB
IN 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE, BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE DISTURBANCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[RL3AO]

Quikscat didn't show a whole lot but I figured this would get a mention sooner or later.

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PGTW 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 12.8N 111.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020230Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 112.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
112.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 112.5E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST
OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTER, HOWEVER, THE CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. A 012242Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT UNFLAGGED
WINDS AND SLP CONTINUES TO BE LOW, ABOUT 1001MB NEAR THE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED
UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) AND IS
POSITIONED UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 16 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 030400Z.//
NNNN

[RL3AO]

[Chacor]

45 kt? O_o

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC with 45 knot winds on quickscat. Should be getting upgraded soon.

[Chacor]

Now a tropical depression (viewtopic.php?f=59&t=96640).