91E in EPAC

[benny]

Maybe this system can become Flossie over the next couple of days. It looks like a small little system with good banding features though. Just became active on the NRL page. It is the system east of 90e.

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 04 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW PRES 1010 MB 10N108W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. AREA OF NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1402 UTC SAT AUG 4 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912007) 20070804 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070804  1200   070805  0000   070805  1200   070806  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.8N 108.0W   10.4N 110.8W   11.0N 113.1W   11.5N 115.5W
BAMD     9.8N 108.0W   10.0N 110.5W   10.2N 112.6W   10.5N 114.4W
BAMM     9.8N 108.0W   10.1N 110.6W   10.5N 112.7W   10.8N 114.5W
LBAR     9.8N 108.0W   10.2N 110.5W   10.8N 113.3W   11.4N 116.1W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          42KTS          54KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          42KTS          54KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070806  1200   070807  1200   070808  1200   070809  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.9N 117.5W   12.6N 121.1W   13.2N 123.8W   14.0N 126.7W
BAMD    10.7N 116.2W   11.2N 120.1W   11.4N 124.1W   11.3N 128.4W
BAMM    11.0N 116.4W   11.8N 120.1W   12.3N 123.5W   12.9N 126.9W
LBAR    12.1N 118.9W   13.4N 124.2W   14.1N 129.0W   14.6N 129.8W
SHIP        62KTS          74KTS          74KTS          75KTS
DSHP        62KTS          74KTS          74KTS          75KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.8N LONCUR = 108.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =   9.7N LONM12 = 106.1W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =   9.0N LONM24 = 102.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[Chacor]

Finally a storm that might reach hurricane status and sustain it in the EPac! It's been disappointing so far this season.

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 04 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LOW PRES 1009 MB 10N108W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. AREA OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 109W AND 112W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THIS MORNING. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE.


They need to shift the floater off 90E and onto this... best thing going on in the Western hemisphere at the moment.

[HURAKAN]

04/1800 UTC 9.9N 109.8W TOO WEAK 91E -- East Pacific Ocean



Our good 'ol frind. Mr. Shear!!!

[AnnularCane]

GO AWAY, SHEAR.

[Brent]

Looks like whatever is plaguing most of the Atlantic has spread.

[HurricaneRobert]

Category 2?

[HURAKAN]

looks sick at best

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 05 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 11N114W MOVING W 12 KT. SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A MUCH LARGER AREA
OF SCATTRED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM IN
THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW MAINLY ALONG THE ITCZ. SYSTEM
REMAINS IN SN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. SHOULD THE SHEAR
ABATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE SYSTEM HAS A BETTER POTENTIAL
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

[Cyclenall]

*cut*

Category 2?

One model run I saw before that took it to over 100 knots.

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 06 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 12N116W MOVING WNW 12 KT. SYSTEM HAD
CONSISTED OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION UP UNTIL AN HOUR AGO WHEN A BURST OF VERY STRONG
CONVECTION OBSCURED THE CENTER. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE -85C
IN THIS BURST. A LARGER AREA OF SCATTRED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150-180 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LOW MAINLY ALONG THE ITCZ. SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. SHOULD THE SHEAR ABATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

[Chacor]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060358
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SUN AUG 5 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 825 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS
GRADUALLY BEEN GAINING ORGANIZATION TONIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

91E has what 99L lacked, a LLC, while 99L had what 91E lacks, a large area of convection.

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 061040
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT MON AUG 6 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THIS
AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 06 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N117W IS EMBEDDED ON A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
117W S OF 17N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW 10 KT AND CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH LESS SHEAR
THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
48 HOURS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 061702
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT MON AUG 6 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[RL3AO]

This thing fell apart quick. Wow. It looks like someone picked it up and dropped it in some 15 degree water.

[AnnularCane]

Looks like it's got two circulations. I'm not sure which one is 91E, or maybe they both are.

Sometimes it seems like declaring that a disturbance might become a depression is a cue for the EPAC monster to attack.