Is Complacency Starting to Set In?

[gatorcane]

Here are are in mid August and yet another hyped up season looks to be a dud. It is absolutely lifeless in the Atlantic right now.

I get the sense in talking with some people that they are already claiming victory this year because of how quiet it has been.

I urge them to keep their guard up. It is only mid August and September and October can be very busy months especially for Florida and the GOM (the later we get in the season).

There are many examples of quiet seasons with surprises. One I can think of is Andrew in 1992 which was a CAT 5 Cape Verde storm that happened during a very quiet Cape Verde season. This storm is one of the worst to hit the United States in the history of record keeping.

Does anybody else sense people are letting their guard down some given how quiet it has been?

[RL3AO]

Considering the EPac and WPac are below average and the La Nina developing I have to say you are correct.

[fci]

South Florida is still pretty wary of storms since it has only been a couple of years since Wilma and some are STILL repairing!!!

Now, if we go another 5-10 year stretch of no activity here; and I presume that this would apply elsewhere; there will be a lot of complacency. This was the case here for a very long time when we were not struck by anything more than a weak Tropical Storm here and there.

People are still vigilant here. We are not removed enough from Wilma and the 2 weeks apart shots of Francis and Jeanne.

[Extremeweatherguy]

All this buzz about a quiet season seems a bit premature to me. It is still early August and we have a good deal of the season left. We also are currently at or above normal in terms of named storms for this point in the year, and add to that the developing La Nina (according to the CPC), the warm SSTs (according to the latest Reynolds image) and other factors and we could easily still have a normal or above normal season. All it takes though is one "big one" to make this a year to remember.

[dwg71]

I don't buy the complacency arguement, those of us that live on the coast are always prepared from June to November for the possibility of a storm. Its not like people are saying "well its quiet so far, and I think the season could be less active so I will use this plywood to build a playhouse instead of boarding up my windows".

If a storm is moving in the gulf (or near any area on CONUS coast), everyone will hear about it (thanks to our wonderful overhyping local media) and move our plans into place.

Its not irresponsible to say "season cancel" if that's what you think, it irresponsible to not be prepared at the beginning of the season.

[windstorm99]

Wilma and katrina are nothing compared to how bad it could really get in south florida....We have been very lucky since andrew and in all honesty that luck will soon run out if not this year the next.

Numbers predicted dont matter as the ones that actually make landfall are the ones that have the greatest impact.It only takes one storm.

[ronjon]

From Max Mayfield's Blog:

"When will South Florida Be Hit Again By A Major Hurricane?
Most of the loss of life and damage from hurricanes comes from the Major Hurricanes - Category 3, 4 and 5 on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale. The National Hurricane Center has updated the Mean Return Periods for United States coastal communities to include recent hurricane activity.

The mean return period for a Major Hurricane in Miami (based on the historical data from 1871 through 2006) is now listed as nine years. That means that, on average, Miami can expect a Major Hurricane once every nine years. For Fort Lauderdale, it is 10 years and for Key West, 12 years. However, in reality Miami has only been struck once by a Major Hurricane since 1950 (Andrew in 1992)."

Statistically, SE FL is overdue for a major hurricane (my words).

[Dynamic]

Historically the third storm of the year is formed around August 12, and this season the third storm “Chantal” was formed on July 31. So, I’m not thinking that this season could be cancelled. The season is running normally as we can expect.

Also, we are in the very first few days of August, in the past 120 years only 60 storms was formed in the Atlantic in the first 10 days of this month, this mean an average of .5 storms per year.

Let the weeks go and maybe we can have an explosive end of month. As gatorcane said, we need to have the guard up!

[jasons2k]

Every season, every time it's slow, people start bringing this up.

Three things:

1) It's only August 7th. Check your calendars. It's only August 7th.
2) We're not looking for the "A" storm, it's the "D" storm next. It's like A-C didn't exist.
3) Even in 2005, for a few weeks a lot of people were saying the season was over. This was before Katrina. Boy were they as wrong as ever.

[dwg71]

Historically the third storm of the year is formed around August 12, and this season the third storm “Chantal” was formed on July 31. So, I’m not thinking that this season could be cancelled. The season is running normally as we can expect.

Also, we are in the very first few days of August, in the past 120 years only 60 storms was formed in the Atlantic in the first 10 days of this month, this mean an average of .5 storms per year.

Let the weeks go and maybe we can have an explosive end of month. As gatorcane said, we need to have the guard up!

But historically there are only 10 named storms in a season, so if this year is normal to date, then we should expect normalcy all season? I dont know, but big numbers were predicted by lots of people for this year.

Exactly how do you "have the guard up"? What are people now doing differently that they would be doing if we have had 10 storms to date?

[hawkeh]

Its WAY WAY too early to be calling the season a dud as so many people are (I don't care how much like 2006 it is so far). It only takes one storm to make landfall to cause serious problems, and that could happen a month from now for all we know. If we get to September and theres still nothing brewing, maybe I'll start to believe it.

[Bane]

Here are are in mid August and yet another hyped up season looks to be a dud. It is absolutely lifeless in the Atlantic right now.

I get the sense in talking with some people that they are already claiming victory this year because of how quiet it has been.

I urge them to keep their guard up. It is only mid August and September and October can be very busy months especially for Florida and the GOM (the later we get in the season).

There are many examples of quiet seasons with surprises. One I can think of is Andrew in 1992 which was a CAT 5 Cape Verde storm that happened during a very quiet Cape Verde season. This storm is one of the worst to hit the United States in the history of record keeping.

Does anybody else sense people are letting their guard down some given how quiet it has been?

umm, it isn't even mid-august yet. got another week to go.

[Bane]

Here are are in mid August and yet another hyped up season looks to be a dud. It is absolutely lifeless in the Atlantic right now.

I get the sense in talking with some people that they are already claiming victory this year because of how quiet it has been.



Does anybody else sense people are letting their guard down some given how quiet it has been?

and to answer your question, no. i haven't heard anyone say anything like that, other than reading the silly posts getting placed on this site.

[gtalum]

Just because people aren't freaking out doesn't mean we're complacent.

[gatorcane]

Here are are in mid August and yet another hyped up season looks to be a dud. It is absolutely lifeless in the Atlantic right now.

I get the sense in talking with some people that they are already claiming victory this year because of how quiet it has been.



Does anybody else sense people are letting their guard down some given how quiet it has been?

and to answer your question, no. i haven't heard anyone say anything like that, other than reading the silly posts getting placed on this site.

I had some conversations with some people in the area and some of them have the attitude that since nothing as formed yet that we will be spared this season. The problem is that seasons like 2004 and 2005 are rare and usually the real activity starts at the end of Aug. through October.

I am not saying that complacency is definitely setting in (that is why the subject of this thread is a question)

[weunice]

I think complacency takes decades and honestly I think it had a lot to do with why Katrina was so devestating (in some areas). It had been too long since Camille and many of us were on the good side of Ivan. Besides Lili and Ivan set up the area. Those were near misses for New Orleans. I knew plenty of people who said "Leave? Never again." On the positive, Ivan showed some MASSIVE problems in evacuation planning for New Orleans (kind of like Rita did for the metro Houston area). Quite frankly if Ivan hadn't happened the way it did and the traffic debacle that occurred then had occurred with Katrina .... well, lets say I don't want to imagine.

If a storm that looks anything like Katrina is churning anywhere you can guarantee more people in the central gulf coast region are going to take it seriously. We now have recent memory to add to our reasons to prepare. Sadly there is nothing like a little real experience to get people serious about hurricane preparation. I am just hoping that the coverage of it puts other areas that have missed out on recent storms on their toes.

[Frank2]

No - being vigilant is always the right thing to do...

If it gets to late September and October and the upper level winds are very unfavorable, that's different, but, at this time of year it's still too early to say the season is over...

[jasons2k]

FWIW there was an article not long ago with a study showing that the people willing to leave in a mandatory evacuation is lower than last year...which means on some level, complacency has filtered into the general public.

[artist]

I can remember a couple of years ago that all it took was Sept.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't think Andrew was considered a Cape Verde Hurricane. It was much of nothing out north of the Eastern Carib. Islands in the western Atlantic without even a mention in the TWO.