Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[Meso]

60 More hours or so till the tropical wave which has been represented for ages on the GFS emerges off the coast of Africa.
I`m really thinking this is going to develop just from the number of models latching onto it and due to the persistence.So one can use this thread for the model runs since they aren't long term anymore,Sat imagery of the wave and other C.Verdes conditions.


GFS 102 Hours


NOGAPS 132 Hours


UKMET 144 Hours


CMC 144 Hours


MM5 114 Hours


EURO 192 Hours

So every model shows a low pressure,the EURO being the most conservative as usual,but still showing a low pressure with winds associated.


Image will update as automatically

[Stephanie]

WHOA!!

What the heck is the CMC showing at 144 hrs off the Carolina coast???

[Meso]

Heh,yeah.. It's been rather on the intense side of that system.Wouldn't be surprised to see it develop,but probably not THAT deep.

And as for this wave,the new GFS will be coming out in about 10 minutes,so can see what it's showing this time.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15
Large Sat Image

[Stephanie]

That's a pretty elongated area of clouds coming off the coast.

[Meso]

Yeah,some models (UKMET,CMC,MM5) actually develop that wave too.Quite aggressively too

[Meso]

The 12z GFS showing the low moving off in 36 hours

[punkyg]

So when do the models develop this wave?
right when it comes off the coast.

[Meso]

Pretty much within a day after coming off the coast.




The GFS still showing development

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks pretty impressive: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

With lots of run-to-run consistancy, and agreement from other models, I believe that this has a legitimate chance at actually developing.

[punkyg]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF
Out of this picture can you tell me which wave the models are developing.

[Meso]

I think it's the one at 5 degrees,though it's still got a way to go,so another may create more convection.Give it another 24 hours or so and one should be able to tell,but I do think it's the one at 5 degrees.And some models develop the one just off the coast too.

[Meso]

12z CMC following the GFS again,really quick deepening as it moves off the coast

[BigA]

It seems like with solid model consistancy, and the fact that we are within a week of the peak of hurricane season (and the Cape Verde season) there should be a decent shot of something forming in the next 3-5 days off Africa. I have a gut feeling, and its only a gut feeling, that this could be the first storm that really wheels around the high pressure to an extent, rather than being forced under it like Dean and Felix.

[Meso]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144s.gif
GFS not rapidly deepening the system this run.But fluctuations between runs are to be expected

[Stephanie]

I still can't take my eye off of that thing off the East Coast.

There's a lot of consistency with the models it seems like with this next wave.

[fci]

I am glad that the CMC has been the "psycho" model this year since it is FRIGHTENING what it shows;
99L- a monster storm off, or right near the NC/Va coast moving towards NJ and Long Island.
A pretty deep looking storm off of Africa.

Lets remember that it showed a Hurricane here in SE FL on 8/23 though.....

[Meso]

The EURO once again showing a low pressure moving off with winds associated with it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp24.png
00z CMC still showing it as well.Deepening it quickly.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/mm5fsu ... /slp20.png
MM5 also showing it still.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ngp/20 ... /slp21.png
NOGAPS also showing a closed low

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168s.gif
GFS also still showing it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/20 ... /slp24.png
UKMET too.

I think that's every model showing development of this wave that's going to emerge.

[Meso]

12z CMC

[Roswell_Atup]

what happened to that wave?

[windstorm99]

Jeff masters 9/5/07

African development?
The models unanimously forecast a tropical depression will develop near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa 2-4 days from now. The models showed a similar degree of unanimity for the development of Hurricane Dean in a similar situation, so the chances of another named storm off the coast of Africa early next week are considerable.