All Bark No Bite

[gatorcane]

Well here we are nearly in mid September and all that is formed is a highly sheared T.S. Gabrielle. We just passed the peak of the season and still nothing signficant this month.

Each TWO from the NHC looks full of activity going on in the Atlantic but when it comes down to it, seems like most invests can't make it any further.

92L really has me wondering. How can an invest that looked so good and even the pro mets were thinking could develop suddenly goes poof?

91L has a 30-40% chance of development by the pro mets...and is taking its sweet time to get going. It may not even develop at all (would that be a let down for many on this board or what?)

Then you have experts saying La Nina is in full swing and things should ramp up soon. I'd like to agree with them but as each day goes by those CONUS fronts win out the battles and the waters in the GOM and off the EC of the US will slowly begin to cool.

What is going?

It's all Bark on No Bite

[Frank2]

That's okay - put them all together, and, we'd have enough for a shrimp cocktail...

LOL

P.S. I'm still thinking about that NOAA press release of late last week, that mentions a La Nina "over the next 3 months" - that's between Thanksgiving and Christmas! I really, really don't think that makes much sense, sincee that is at a time when Buffalo is already seeing heavy Lake-effect snows...

P.P.S. Common sense, folks - that's what counts, since that's a first cousin to inspiration - and neither is found in a textbook...

[Stormcenter]

That's okay - put them all together, and, we'd have enough for a shrimp cocktail...

LOL

P.S. I'm still thinking about that NOAA press release of late last week, that mentions a La Nina "over the next 3 months" - that's between Thanksgiving and Christmas! I really, really don't think that makes much sense, sincee that is at a time when Buffalo is already seeing heavy Lake-effect snows...

P.P.S. Common sense, folks - that's what counts, since that's a first cousin to inspiration - and neither is found in a textbook...

Believe me after mid-Oct you pretty much turn off the lights for much of the U.S except maybe extreme Florida for hurricane season I don't care if La Nina or whatever is around.
This is not the 2005 season. This all of course my opinion.

[marcane_1973]

Without Dean and Felix this season=BORING!!! Mostly all the invests this year haven"t looked so hot. Dean was the only invest right off the bat that you knew this was going to do something for sure. We should have had seen more of those waves by now but the setup in the Atlantic has not been there and hasn't been this whole 2007 season. Maybe things will get more interesting towards the end of September or maybe even October. The only area that seems to favor good development this has been confined to the southern Caribbean. Looking at 91L this morning I think it seems it still has a decent chance has a chance but it is also starting to take on that look of dissipating (like mostly everything this year) at some point if it does not get going soon. Your right All bark No Bite so far this 2007 season. Now let's see if the remaining season has some surprises ahead for us. Looks like the U.S. luck of not even getting a minimal cane might hold out once again this year.

[Frank2]

Personally, it might be boring, but, Florida and the Gulf Coast needed a two-year break - considering what else is going on (as in man-made trouble), the last thing needed were more Katrina's or Wilma's...

P.S. Of course, those in the path of Dean and Felix would disagree, and they would be correct...

[cpdaman]

i think people will change their tune soon enough. when it's oct 15'th then you can bring this up

[Stormcenter]

i think people will change their tune soon enough. when it's oct 15'th then you can bring this up

It may be wishful thinking in reference to "changing their tune". soon enough.
As I've said before Mother Nature has her way of balancing things
out in the long run.

[Sanibel]

That September surge the NHC was calling for hasn't materialized. The Atlantic looks negative as far as favorable environment. I won't say 2006 repeat because Dean and Felix already bucked that theory. And they say a Nina is slowly developing - which could mean a busy late season.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is kinda what I was saying in late August. It just seemed like there was a ton of convection and opportunites out there but nothing that looks good could get going. Except for Dean and Felix earlier, this seems to also be the case as we move into mid September, and other than 91L, I don't see anything else on the horizon either....I'm thinking that the season just might end early, with not alot left.....Yesterday was the peak of the season and if you look at the graph representing the peak, it's all downhill from here......With this many invests going "poof", it's no wonder so many of us are skeptical about the rest of the season...I agree, it's busier than last year with Dean and Felix, but if 91L doesn't pull together, doesn't look like anything will get going within at least the next weak to 10 days, after that, who knows?? By then we'll be entering late September....I can't believe how lucky the USA has been since 2006......We'll just have to see if 91L makes it or not, perhaps it will still come together still in the next couple of days.

[Category 5]

Well here we are nearly in mid September and all that is formed is a highly sheared T.S. Gabrielle. We just passed the peak of the season and still nothing signficant this month.

Each TWO from the NHC looks full of activity going on in the Atlantic but when it comes down to it, seems like most invests can't make it any further.

92L really has me wondering. How can an invest that looked so good and even the pro mets were thinking could develop suddenly goes poof?

91L has a 30-40% chance of development by the pro mets...and is taking its sweet time to get going. It may not even develop at all (would that be a let down for many on this board or what?)

Then you have experts saying La Nina is in full swing and things should ramp up soon. I'd like to agree with them but as each day goes by those CONUS fronts win out the battles and the waters in the GOM and off the EC of the US will slowly begin to cool.

What is going?

It's all Bark on No Bite

So this means you want to be hit by a Hurricane?

And BTW two category 5 Hurricanes have formed and made landfall this year. Something that has NEVER happened in one season before, let alone 2 weeks apart.

[Normandy]

I just simply cannot believe a season with two landfalling category 5 hurricanes is being deemed boring. I just simply don't understand.

Please enlighten me. What exactly do you guys want to happen?
Mods can bash me and ban me, but quite honestly this needs to be said.

Many members here want another Katrina/Rita/Wilma and whatnot, and want a repeat of 2005. Its evident.

And P.S, I would love for those "boring season" people to disprove the claim I made above (IE state LEGIT reasons why you think this season is boring).

[wxmann_91]

I feel like this is going to bumped soon.

EVERY time a thread like this pops up, mama nature proves the nay-sayers wrong.

I don't think we had many season cancel threads in 2006. Maybe one but that's it. But I will say that we've had many in 2005 (one in August followed by Katrina, one that preceded Rita I think, and one in late Sept followed by Wilma), and one this year (that was followed by Felix).

[Normandy]

I feel like this is going to bumped soon.

EVERY time a thread like this pops up, mama nature proves the nay-sayers wrong.

I don't think we had many season cancel threads in 2006. Maybe one but that's it. But I will say that we've had many in 2005 (one in August followed by Katrina, one that preceded Rita I think, and one in late Sept followed by Wilma), and one this year (that was followed by Felix).

No there was another one right after Dean as well. In fact the next week I believe.

[Coredesat]

Many members here want another Katrina/Rita/Wilma and whatnot, and want a repeat of 2005. Its evident.

I agree with this statement because it's a genuine problem. Every time we get some kind of lull, people complain because, in the words of another poster who shall remain nameless, 2005 has "spoiled" them. Tropical cyclones are destructive; the value of tracking them is in hoping people will be safe or will get some benefit from them (for example, a weak TS would do wonders for the drought in the SE US).

The next time one of these types of threads is made, I will lock it.

[Category 5]

Another thing, to all the people who think this is a dead season.

Go to the families of the 150+ people who were killed by Dean and Felix and tell them this season has been boring.

[Sanibel]

Look what is spinning up east of the Lessers...

[RL3AO]

And for you American-centrists, 27 Americans have died this year from tc's.

[fci]

Another thing, to all the people who think this is a dead season.

Go to the families of the 150+ people who were killed by Dean and Felix and tell them this season has been boring.

Please do not misconstrue my statement to be minimizing the tragedy of loss of life and property from Dean and Felix.

Most people who post here live in the Continental US.
Thus, they have a bit of a tunnel vision for storms that threaten and affect the US.
That's why we sometimes forget our friends in the Islands and have to be reminded.

Therefore, from the perspective of those who reside in the US and concentrate on storms that affect the US, this has been a rather dead season.

Not defending the thought process but explaining why there appears to be a lack of cognition of the effects on regions beyond the Continental US.

I sincerly believe that all members of S2K share the concern for those outside the US that are affected by storms and have empathy and sympathy for those hard hit. I know I do; but that when a storm no longer threatens my region or the US, I lose focus on them.

[weatherwindow]

just an aside...it did seem that the dropoff of MDR formation coincided with the longwave pattern shift at the end of aug..in which the trough/ridge pattern of august was replaced by the current ridge/ trough which has persisted since the pumped ridge which guided felix broke down. since that pattern shift occurred, the semi-contiguous ridge across the atlantic has been replaced by a much more chaotic upper level picture with a series of substantial UL lows interspersed with smaller, less persistent areas of high pressure...and of course, a dominant long wave trof positioned over/off the east coast...........rich

[jasons2k]

Just like last time this thread was created, what a difference a day makes.