OMAR: Aftermath=PR / VI / N.Leewards

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cycloneye
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OMAR: Aftermath=PR / VI / N.Leewards

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2008 5:41 pm

Those who live in Puerto Rico,the U.S VI,BVI and Northern Leewards can post observations,local statements,web cams as this rain and maybe (some wind)??? unfolds in the next few days. As I type this,in San Juan is pouring hard with lighting and thunder.

Web Cam in Bayamon
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Re: 98L:Observations,Web Cams,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2008 5:43 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2008

PRZ001>004-006-007-012-013-VIZ001-002-122300-
CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-AIBONITO PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-ARROYO PR-LUQUILLO PR-PATILLAS PR-
MAUNABO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-GUAYAMA PR-FAJARDO PR-
CULEBRA PR-CAROLINA PR-HUMACAO PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-SALINAS PR-
SANTA ISABEL PR-PENUELAS PR-RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-VIEQUES PR-
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-SAINT CROIX VI-
613 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2008

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...

THE BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EARLIER TODAY HAS
FINALLY MADE ITS DEBUT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THE FIRST
SHOWERS MOVED RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AST AND
WERE ENGULFING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND PONCE AT 6:15 PM.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MOST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MOST OF THE PUERTO
RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 10 PM AST MONDAY AND
WILL ADD SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. PERSONS IN ALL BUT NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

SNELL
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Re: 98L:Observations,Web Cams,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2008 6:09 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...ADMITTEDLY ACTIVE WEATHER WAS SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TODAY...BUT IS CURRENTLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ACTIVE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE FA. THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...WITH AXIS LOCATED OVER
PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR 15.3 NORTH AND 68 WEST
CONTINUES TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BECOME MORE
OF A FACTOR LOCALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS RATHER COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD FOR THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
THEN PROBABLY CONTINUES TO VARYING DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE AGAIN TWEAKED THEIR
SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL INDICATING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...WITH WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CIRCULATION
TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN
POSSIBLY MOVING "BACK" TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

WITH TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA...AND COMBINING WITH CONTINUED
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY LOOK QUITE ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
BANDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS DESTINED TO AFFECT MOST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME. AS "BURSTY" HEAVY RAINFALL
PERSISTS IN SOME AREAS...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY BE
INCREASING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT
THE WESTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH 8 PM...AND WILL BE
EXTENDED AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED OR RE-ARRANGED FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY OR LONGER. AN EARLY ESTIMATE ON RAINFALL FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WOULD BE A GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY...WE EXPECT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH EXACT DETAILS VERY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OR NOT AND HOW IT
MOVES. AT THIS MOMENT...FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS OF
GENERAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...MOVING LITTLE OR EVEN A BIT ERRATICALLY...BUT
GENERALLY REMAINING IN A LOCATION THAT ALLOWS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
INTERACTING WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
VENTILATION...TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE FA.

SO...AGAIN...CURRENT SET-UP AND CONTINUING MODEL SOLUTIONS DO
INDICATE...YET AGAIN...THE "INCREASING LIKELIHOOD" OF MANY DAYS OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER LOCALLY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

UNFORTUNATELY...AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING...LATEST SIGNS STILL
INDICATE THAT SOME AREAS AFFECTED BY THE HISTORICAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING OF
9/21-9/23...WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ALTHOUGH EVENT STARTED SLOWLY TODAY...OUR INITIAL
"SEVERAL DAY" FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE...WITH
"POTENTIAL" STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 15
INCHES...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY RECEIVING 24 INCHES OR MORE! IF
THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO UNFOLD...THE SITUATION WOULD BECOME
VERY BAD...AND WE CONTINUE TO STRONGLY URGE ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

IN ADDITION...PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT IT DOES NOT NEED TO BE
RAINING AT THEIR EXACT LOCATION...FOR DANGEROUS WATER SURGES TO
OCCUR IN LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS. PEOPLE SHOULD STAY OUT OF
THESE TYPE OF WATERS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE AT THIS TIME
ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN...PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. INITIAL VFR
CONDITIONS ON MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
STEADILY WORSEN TO MVFR...WITH LOCAL IFR IN INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE...EXPECT
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IF TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA...MOVES LITTLE AND STRENGTHENS AS EXPECTED. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AMZ732 AND THERE IS A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE REMAINING LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS
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Re: 98L:Observations,Web Cams,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2008 6:24 pm

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
649 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2008

PRZ001>007-012-013-VIZ001-002-131100-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-081014T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...CULEBRA...
ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
649 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...PONCE AND
VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* THROUGH 10 PM AST MONDAY EVENING

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING...WILL BRING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND SECTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM
AST MONDAY EVENING. RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 5 AND 1O INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 PM AST MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS
LARGE SECTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLY MUDSLIDES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

$$

SR/WS
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Re: 98L:Observations,Web Cams,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2008 7:04 pm

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-130130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0074.081012T2359Z-081013T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
759 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA
FAJARDO

* UNTIL 930 PM AST

* AT 749 PM AST...FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED BY THE RIVER GAGE ON
THE FAJARDO RIVER.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AREAS ALONG THE FAJARDO RIVER IN
FAJARDO AND CEIBA MUNICIPALITIES.

A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN HAS RAISED THE FAJARDO RIVER ABOVE ITS FLOOD
STAGE OF 8 FEET. IT WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BEFORE 9 PM AST.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 1831 6570 1832 6562 1824 6562 1826 6570

$$

SNELL
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Re: 98L:Obs,Preparations,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2008 8:09 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
731 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2008

VIC020-030-130230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0204.081012T2331Z-081013T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
731 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
THE FOLLOWING

COUNTIES
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST

* AT 729 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF VERY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT
JOHN. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY BEEN ESTIMATED ACROSS
THESE ISLANDS SINCE 6 PM AST...AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1030 PM AST. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND FLOODING OF GUTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 1827 6470 1827 6498 1831 6510 1842 6510
1843 6503 1840 6500 1845 6488 1840 6484
1840 6467 1831 6463

$$

SR
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Re: 98L:Obs,Preparations,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#7 Postby bvigal » Mon Oct 13, 2008 5:38 am

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC053-131315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0075.081013T1022Z-081013T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
622 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
FAJARDO

* UNTIL 915 AM AST

* AT 612 AM AST...A RIVER LEVEL SENSORS ALONG RIO FAJARDO INDICATED
THAT THE RIVER WAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE
WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 1832 6562 1827 6568 1829 6572 1834 6564

$$

FIGUEROA


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
634 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

PRZ001>007-011>013-VIZ001-002-132245-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-081014T0200Z/
/00000.0.OT.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...CABO ROJO...LAJAS...
CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
634 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...PONCE AND
VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST AND
VIEQUES. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST.
JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING...WILL BRING PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND SECTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM AST THIS
EVENING. RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 5 AND 1O INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 PM AST THIS EVENING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LARGE SECTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY MUDSLIDES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED... AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

$$


MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

AMZ710-712-715-131145-
552 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...

AT 544 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33
KNOTS... MOVING OVER ATLANTIC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
19.5N...OR ABOUT 36 NM NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN JUAN...MOVING WEST
AROUND AT 20 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES
AT THESE STORMS PASS BY. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY
UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN
WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL
OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 1858 6686 1938 6660 1867 6529 1842 6533

$$
RAM


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

PRC037-053-069-077-085-089-103-119-147-151-131330-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0205.000000T0000Z-081013T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
602 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
THE FOLLOWING

MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...FAJARDO...
HUMACAO...RIO GRANDE...YABUCOA AND VIEQUES

* UNTIL 930 AM AST

* AT 550 AM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUE TO INDICATED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. AT LEAST THROUGH 930
AM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE
AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 1803 6545 1803 6557 1810 6563 1817 6561
1814 6570 1803 6578 1803 6598 1842 6577
1831 6556 1819 6545 1816 6526

$$

FIGUEROA








--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

PRC021-029-031-061-063-087-127-139-131200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0206.081013T0903Z-081013T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
503 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
THE FOLLOWING

MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GURABO...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...
CAROLINA...SAN JUAN AND LOIZA

* AT 450 AM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
BEEN IN AND AROUND THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN JUAN AND LOIZA.
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. AT
LEAST THROUGH 8 AM AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 1845 6591 1828 6591 1834 6616 1848 6613

$$

FIGUEROA
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#8 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:46 am

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 130910
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...WITH SOME REACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WERE
MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH THE LEADING EDGE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY OR TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AT LEAST
UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING. LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SMALL CRAFTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE.
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#9 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:47 am

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 130851
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERING THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOME 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO RICO CONTINUED TO GENERATE EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AS
UPPER TROUGH (TUTT) LIFTED NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND CONTINUED
TO FILL. THIS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARDS AND ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION FROM ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...AS OCCASIONAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA PRODUCING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THEREFORE...FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN HOW THIS
FEATURE UNFOLDS...AND MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH BECOMES
STRETCHED AND IS LIFTED NORTHWARDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TUTT IS REINFORCED AND DIGS SOUTHWEST
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND BECOMES AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEEKEND.

AS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN AND THE EXPECTED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...MAINTAINED THE OVERALL WET FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WHEN DIURNAL AND LOCAL INFLUENCES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
MAY BE EXTENDED AND EXPANDED FOR THE REMINDER OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AROUND A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS TISX...TIST AND TJPS DURING THE REST OF
THE MORNING HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MORE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR ACROSS TJSJ... TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR VERY BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MARINE...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...
DUE TO TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...AN MOVE SLOWLY
WEST NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR AMZ732 AND THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR
ALMOST ALL OF THE REMAINING LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 86 77 / 70 70 80 50
STT 84 78 85 78 / 90 90 90 90

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-PONCE AND
VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ732.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ732.
&&

$$

72/09/
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Re: 98L:Obs,Preparations,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#10 Postby Rincon » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:03 am

Here is my live weather station and CAM located on the west coast in Rincon. Last event missed us in the Northwest for the most part. I will keep an eye on this one and a turn to the N and NE as some are predicting.

http://www.rinconadventure.com/Weather/wxindex.php


Marcus in Rincon
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Re: 98L:Obs,Preparations,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#11 Postby msbee » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:38 am

thanks for the web cam links
hope you guys in PR and VI are safe with not too much rain.

we are on the fringe of this system. We had heavy showers early this morning with about 1 inch of rain.
Now the skies are mostly cloudy but the sun is peeking through.
winds are from the E at about 10 MPH.

I suspect we may get a few more showers, but nothing serious.
Barbara
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Re: 98L:Obs,Preparations,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:49 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
915 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
FAJARDO

* UNTIL 1030 AM AST

* AT 915 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE RIO FAJARDO BASIN IN NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT HOUR IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID
FLOODING OF THE RIO FAJARDO UNTIL AT LEAST 1030 AM AST.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 1832 6562 1827 6568 1829 6572 1834 6564

$$

RA
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:01 am

Image

Only the coquís (Eleutherodactylus coqui)* are going to be happy.

* = thanks to Wikipedia!!!
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Re: 98L:Obs,Preparations,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:18 am

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

PRC015-057-095-109-123-131700-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0210.081013T1403Z-081013T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1003 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
THE FOLLOWING

MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
ARROYO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...GUAYAMA AND SALINAS

* UNTIL 100 PM AST

* AT 957 AM AST...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND
MOVING QUICKLY TOWARDS THESE AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH 100 PM...AND THIS RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 1802 6623 1803 6588 1800 6587 1793 6590
1793 6600 1791 6603 1791 6626

$$
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Re: TD 15:Obs,Preparations,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:21 am

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-089-103-119-131830-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0077.081013T1438Z-081013T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO
NAGUABO
CEIBA
FAJARDO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 230 PM AST

* AT 1030 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
TWO INCHES OR MORE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS. SOILS IN THIS
AREA ARE SATURATED...AND THE ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LEAD TO RAPID
FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...STREAMS AND RIVERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE
WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 1832 6562 1822 6559 1818 6571 1822 6579
1843 6583 1837 6564

$$

RA
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#16 Postby caribepr » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:31 am

This will be quick as I'm on battery power, electric has been out most of last night and most of today.

The model from NHC has this right on Culebra. Which is good, because it will change. It will change. It WILL change!

Did I mention it will change?

We've been getting blasted with rain, then dead calm, over and over.

Be safe, fellow riders of the storm!
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Re: TD 15:Obs,Preparations,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:41 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1136 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CAYEY
LAS PIEDRAS
ARROYO
PATILLAS
MAUNABO
GUAYAMA
HUMACAO
SALINAS
YABUCOA

* UNTIL 530 PM AST MONDAY

* AT 1130 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON OF UP TO 5 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS.

* DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT THAT DEVASTATED SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO A FEW WEEKS AGO...RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH AND SOILS
ARE SATURATED.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 1804 6631 1809 6595 1824 6583 1821 6582
1820 6578 1816 6574 1798 6590 1792 6631

$$

RA
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Re: TD 15:Obs,Preparations,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#18 Postby bvigal » Mon Oct 13, 2008 11:17 am

Oh this flooding is SO NOT what we want to hear... stay safe everyone!! I gotta go get some stuff at the store, been on the internet and telephone since early this morning.

I have to heap HUGE MOUNDS OF PRAISE on the forecasters at NWS-SJU, they began subtle warning of this possibility back on Friday!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2008
...
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH (TUTT) WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL ESTABLISHED
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SITUATION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS OR NEAR THE LOCAL REGION
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS INDICATED BY LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL THE LAST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFY...VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAINS
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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Re: TD 15:Obs,Preparations,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#19 Postby msbee » Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:48 pm

The latest for us from our local Met Office (they got a little confused between NW and NE though)
http://www.meteo.an/

Synopsis: The low pressure system in the Southeastern Caribbean basin Southwest of the local area has been upgraded this morning after 11 am. to tropical depression Fifteen. According to our latest analysis this system will move in a North to Northwesterly direction
and the center will pass over or close to Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Because of the proximity of the depression to the Northeastern Caribbean islands, the SSS islands will experience starting Tuesday evening showery weather and thunderstorms with strong gusty winds, which could at times reach near gale force. Street flooding especially over low terrain remains a possibility, mudslides can occur on hilly terrain.
Marine conditions:
Seas over the Caribbean waters are being stirred up by this tropical system, so expect swells from the South
to affect our local waters during the next few days. A small craft advisory remains in effect for all the Caribbean offshore waters
and passages, until further notice. Elsewhere a precautionary statement for small craft has been set in place.
Atlantic Tropical Weather:
A broad area of low pressure was located this morning about 275 miles South of the Eastern tip of Sto. Domingo. The system has continued to develop and became at 11 am tropical depressio Fifteen. This system is accompanied
by heavy showers and strong gusty winds which will spread out on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday over Puerto Rico,
Sto. Domingo and the Northeastern Caribbean region.
Expect locally heavy rains which could cause life threatening flash floods and possible mudslides.
All interests should monitor this system closely as the system keeps moving slowly Northwestwards.

Sunday afternoon a disturbance in the mid Atlantic has developed into a tropical storm named Nana. Tropical storm Nana
was located this morning at 11 am. near 16.6 degrees North and 40 degrees West, the storm is moving
West Northwest at 6 miles per hour. Nana is not posing a threat for the islands in the Northeastern Caribbean.

A tropical wave is along 48/49W South of 10N moving West near 15 to18 miles per hour. No significant convection
accompanies this wave.

Another tropical wave is along 58/59W South of 20N is moving West near 12 to 18 miles per hour. A mid to upper
level cyclonic turning is observed on satellite near 13N and 40W. isolated moderate convection accompany this wave
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Re: TD 15:Obs,Preparations,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#20 Postby bvigal » Mon Oct 13, 2008 1:04 pm

Yes, to further complicate the picture, another tropical wave is already at 60w, and another behind it 10degrees.

This is a marine zone warning. Buoy at 14N 67.5W already measure 9.2ft seas earlier.

TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ086-132130-
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W...

.THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TONIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE E OF 70W SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
ELSEWHERE W OF 70W NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
NUMEROUS TSTMS E OF 70W TO 62W.
.TUE THROUGH WED...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E
SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT AND 25 NM SW QUADRANT. HIGHEST
WINDS 45 KTS GUSTS 55 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT WED.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER IN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE E OF CENTER SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT N OF
13N AND 5 TO 7 FT S OF 13N. ELSEWHERE W OF CENTER TO 72W
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. W OF 72W NORTHERLY
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT WITH E SWELL. NUMEROUS TSTMS N
OF 14N E OF 70W.
.THU...E OF 65W S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5
TO 7 FT. W OF 65W VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.FRI...E OF 65W VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING EASTERLY 10 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. W OF 65W EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT.
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