OMAR: Aftermath=PR / VI / N.Leewards

[bvigal]

Good morning, neighbors! Wow, we had several bouts of heavy rain last night. I was trying to watch tv and the noise from the metal roof made it impossible to hear anything else. It woke me in wee hours, loud again. Everything is saturated, unable to absorb any more moisture. Let's hope we don't have another 6.1 earthquake like we had early Saturday before the rains began!!

From this morning's local discussion: "... THERE IS STILL THE PROBLEM OF THE BANDS FROM THE OUTER FRINGES REACHING THE ISLANDS AND ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY, LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING INTO THE EVENING HOURS TODAY, THEN FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WIND OF 35 TO 60 MPH OR MORE OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING" With ground saturated, flash flooding/slides will quicly occur during heavy downpours. Add expected wind, and the slide risk elevates. Residents should be aware of possible hazards, and secure their property of loose items which could blow around or wash down the hill onto someone else. Mariners should seek safe harbor by late this afternoon and secure boats.

[greels]

To all my friends in the Islands......please remain safe and know that you are in both my thoughts and my prayers.

Gretchen

[Gustywind]

I appreciate de friendly links, stay safe and keep us informed Gusty!

[Gustywind]

From ST Thomas (BVI) - -a correspondant,
stormcarib.com
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stthomas.shtml

BEWARE OF SLOW MOVING OMAR
From: "Jane Higgins" <jhigginswear at islands.vi>
Date: Tue, 14 Oct 2008 10:10:17 -0400

Good Morning,

We have been the lucky ones so far this storm season. Many Haitians are still struggling with
the remnants of massive rainfall events over these last few months while the daily feat
of getting something to eat may seem insurmountable. Please contact http://www.haitisupport.org
to send a donation. We have to remember that there are many island neighbors still in need
and at the same time we have to pay attention to what this slow moving hazard can bring to
us in the Virgin Islands.

The last 24 hours show at least 9 inches of rain in gauge in our little jungle hut on the West end
of St Thomas in Estate Fortuna. Memories of Hortense and wrong way Lenny are clear now.
The hillside behind our house produced massive waterfalls over the retaining walls
and made the courtyard into a wading pool yesterday. The rain was so heavy at times that
the view to the ocean and neighbors was blocked by a solid wall of moisture. It cleared up
enough in the early evening to download the outside cistern and the overflowing pool back into
the auxiliary cistern. Around midnight the thundering waterfalls were back and I was up rolling
windows down, checking to see how high the water was along the back wall of the house
and clearly expecting something to give. The power of the water running down and around
our house was so loud, two pillows over my head helped block out the flowing noise, only
to push me into dreaming that our house was floating away.

This morning it has been cloudy with no rain, enough time now to download the pool again,
clear out the water path in the back of the house and get some more deck clearing done.
Do not try to second guess this powerful blob of weather, stationary or near stationary
storms are scarier to me than a faster moving storm. Prepare for the worst; prepare for flooding;
and you'll be ready for anything. There is no reason to think this storm is going somewhere else
but right on top of us.

Driving in St. Thomas on a dry day is a challenge with so many potholes and risky slopes and
poorly maintained roads. Driving in St. Thomas yesterday near town and Havensight was a
huge mess for many . Schools are closed today in anticipation of more of the same, I applaud the authorities for taking pre-cautions. If you don't have to drive , just don't, there are downed limbs, piles of mud and rocks on our roads now.

Stay safe and dry. Be as prepared as you can be.

Again, I implore pet owners to think hard about leaving your animals out in these storms. Listening to the whining and barking of dogs left on chains or outside in the mud and rain, terrified ofthe thunder and lightening is the cruelest sound of all. You shouldn't have pets at all if you cannot treat them with the care and safety that you would treat your children. Your children will learn your habits and more generations of ignored and abused animals will follow.

Best of luck and many thoughts to my friends in Anguilla, the BVI, and the A,B,C islands, send usreports on http://www.stormcarib. , we are all in this together.

Jane Higgins in rainy St. Thomas

[caribepr]

People here are in the last stages of prep, with gas lines at our two gas stations long, long long. The gas truck usually comes tomorrow, so no doubt we'll be out of gas for a bit. No one is panicking, rather deeply concerned.
I cabled the cart up and tied it to the bridge, figuring if the bridge goes, it won't really matter what I've done and I don't think that is close to happening. I hope...it's pretty rusty and hasn't been maintained at all in over 20 years, so Hugo is not a gauge!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst! I'd rather be at home but it's not as good as the concrete house where I'm housesitting. So I'm dragging a bunch of stuff up the hill. Wish I could drag my propane stove!
Be safe!!!

[Dionne]

The latest advisory suggests the possibility of a TS warning for Eustatius and Saba later today. With TS force winds extending 75 miles out......why wasn't Kitts/Nevis included? With the Spaghetti models showing Omar moving NE that puts Basseterre on the dirty side of this storm. Thats not good, Basseterre is at sea level. Not to mention that there are rainfall run off ditches coming off the volcano that run right through the city.

[msbee]

the latest discussion:

Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 14/1500z 14.0n 69.0w 35 kt
12hr VT 15/0000z 14.7n 68.3w 45 kt
24hr VT 15/1200z 15.8n 67.3w 55 kt
36hr VT 16/0000z 17.3n 65.6w 60 kt
48hr VT 16/1200z 19.1n 63.6w 65 kt
72hr VT 17/1200z 23.8n 60.0w 65 kt
96hr VT 18/1200z 28.0n 58.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 19/1200z 33.0n 55.0w 65 kt


SXM is 18.1 N, 63.1 W
this is getting too close for comfort!

[caribepr]

Well, neighbor..........

[msbee]

MJ
you know the old saying? misery loves company?
well, you've got company! LOL

Barbara

[msbee]

The latest advisory suggests the possibility of a TS warning for Eustatius and Saba later today. With TS force winds extending 75 miles out......why wasn't Kitts/Nevis included? With the Spaghetti models showing Omar moving NE that puts Basseterre on the dirty side of this storm. Thats not good, Basseterre is at sea level. Not to mention that there are rainfall run off ditches coming off the volcano that run right through the city.

all of the islands in this area are at sea level and we al have poor drainage systems.
We are all gonna be on the dirty side of the storm.
Anguilla, St. Maarten, Statia, Saba, St. Barth's and St Kittis/Nevis.
The only one of those islands with any substantial elevation anywhere is St. Kitts/Nevis.

[Gustywind]

the latest discussion:

Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 14/1500z 14.0n 69.0w 35 kt
12hr VT 15/0000z 14.7n 68.3w 45 kt
24hr VT 15/1200z 15.8n 67.3w 55 kt
36hr VT 16/0000z 17.3n 65.6w 60 kt
48hr VT 16/1200z 19.1n 63.6w 65 kt
72hr VT 17/1200z 23.8n 60.0w 65 kt
96hr VT 18/1200z 28.0n 58.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 19/1200z 33.0n 55.0w 65 kt


SXM is 18.1 N, 63.1 W
this is getting too close for comfort!

Absolutely Barbara bad news for you, too close for comfort and maybe as a cane 1 (givent the predictions) hoping that the NE turn ( should it arrive first!!!)will come quickly the more it goes east or southeast or eastsoutheast for the moment the more menacing it is in its path for you in the Northeern Leewards, but afterall and by extension that means that Guadeloupe could experience more wet weather conditions with sustained winds near 25kts and strong gustywinds from Soutwest up to 35-40 kts added to strong tstorms, that's surely not good news for all the Leewards if this trend continues, hope for the best prepared you for the worst in case of , but let's wait and see how Howard will race....

[caribepr]

Did you read the report from Curacao????

Omar did a sneak attack and dipped south at 1 am today when everyone was
snoozing. I myself got stuck in traffic and was rescued by the RoadWatch aka
"de wegenwacht". Currently we are clocking windgusts up to 115 Km/h with huge
sea waves coming in from the south west. Rain accumulationwas measured at 84 mm
at 730am in Schelpwijk. Rain measurements in other areas will be posted as they
become known. In Bandariba there is a light downpour and at Banda Bou the rain
is moderate to heavy. Reports from local fishermen indicate that the piers at
the hotels have sustained significant damage.
The pontoon bridge between Punda and Otrobanda has been safely towed into the
harbour and sustained minimal to no damage. People are asked to remain inside
as their are many downed powerlines and trees have been uprooted.

[Gustywind]

Should i add Barbara that Meteo-France is on strike too since today morning, so troubles ahead for the weather forecasts, nothing at 12am, hopet that they will suspend their actions to give us more infos to the situation, i'm confident but we have knew better than that!lol...
So not the best scenario in this situation and that reminds curiously Lenny in November 1999 they were on strike too, and Lenny had began to shake St Marteen a Tuesday and the worst for you could be Thursday ( as predicted by the models waouw if this verifies Omar should not be too far near you ). Hope that i will be awfully wrong and this is pure hazard , but hazard don't exists for me , lool. I do not want to be pessimistic time will tell!
Let's wait and see, just a sad thought, hummm seems that this thing is the perfect reKlauss in many ways: location path intensity, pretty curious...
One thing to do monitor very very closely the situation for all the islands in vicinity of this BIG BABY OMARRR !!!!

[msbee]

damn! Can I say that here?
LOL
Meteo France is on strike? bad timing!
Curacao is having wind gusts up to 115 Km/h?
any other good news you guys have?

[cycloneye]

I will not let my guard down yet here as these things change constantly,but I feel somewhat better now.However,I say to Mj,Kotpad in Vieques,Barbara,bvigal,BatzVI,be prepared and stay safe over there.

[BatzVI]

Thanks Luis....I'm just happy I don't have to work tomorrow....everyone, take care and stay safe.....as long as I have phone service (we have a generator), I'll be able to get online and report whatever is going on on the northside at least....

[Gustywind]

Just for info Martinica has already required an yellow alert at 12 am for a risk of a dangerous sea due to an unsual swell from west during the next days and a risk of moderate and cumulated amounts of water....
For those who are interested, and who could read and understand french
LINK: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf
If no good go on: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php and then clik on Martinique, or the others islands you want to know the recents weather alerts discussions...

[Gustywind]

damn! Can I say that here?
LOL
Meteo France is on strike? bad timing!
Curacao is having wind gusts up to 115 Km/h?
any other good news you guys have?

Yeah awfull to say that's truth, i'm confused for you Barbara . Hope that the track will not change more and more, more east and east and saying that G....is on the cone, that will be strongely awesome, but for a beginning Omar do not waste a time with his gimmicks and its amazing size !

[bvigal]

Thanks for the well wishes, Gretchen!! (posted a thanks earlier, but it crashed during posting and logged me out.) And my best hopes for all of you neighbors here in NE Caribbean!!

Posted this over in discussion, when I meant to put it here, so double!
Take a look at this infrared imagery with "funk-top" enhancement (cloud tops) from SSD floater:

This is beginning to present a (real) concern of some rapid intensification.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 141717
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
117 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

.UPDATE...ABUNADANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WELL REMOVED FROM
NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM OMAR IS CURRENTLY COMBINING WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AND BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
DIGGING W ALTC TROF TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS
ALREADY ACROSS THE VI AND NOW INCREASING ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...AND
COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS CELLS MOVE NW AT
LESS THAN 10 MPH. URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS ONLY EXACERBATING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE FORECAST REASONING FOR OMAR HAS NOT CHANGED...AND THE TIMING
GENERALLY REMAINS CONSISTANT WITH RECENT FORECASTS...BUT WITH THE
TRAJECTORY HAVING SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE 11 AM
FORECASTS. THIS IS LOWERING CHANCES FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
FOR ALL BUT THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...AND
MAKING STORM FORCE WINDS MORE CERTAIN FOR THE SPANISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. HIGH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS STILL REMAIN A STRONG
POSSIBILITY...BUT WITH MAX PRECIP LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND JUST
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR.