OMAR: Aftermath=PR / VI / N.Leewards

[TYNI]

I'd prepare for a Cat 4 if I were you there, since the potential does exist for this really bombing out...

To my untrained, amateur eye, the convection in this storm looks unbelievable... in the AVN and rainbow loops. Is this normally a sign of rapid intensification?

[caribepr]

If you are prepared, you are prepared. The intensity just makes you choose one decision, where to ride it out most safely (we call that "finding a safe house", you all call it evacuation). There are quite a few old people here who I have no doubt will be moving in with family members who have stronger houses. Thankfully, here on Culebra, people know what to do and do it. And if the few young idiots we have don't choose to stay safe...I won't cry except for their parents.

[msbee]

MJ
are people boarding up there?
I don 't think anyone here is doing that.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
SAN LORENZO
LAS PIEDRAS
ARROYO
PATILLAS
MAUNABO
NAGUABO
GUAYAMA
HUMACAO
YABUCOA

* UNTIL 845 PM AST

* AT 543 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL AT LEAST 845 PM AST.
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA HAS CREATED SATURATED SOILS
AND IS LEADING TO RAPID FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. RESIDENTS
SHOULD ALSO EXPECT MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 1795 6614 1809 6612 1813 6599 1823 6579
1820 6562 1804 6581 1795 6594

$$

RA

[bvigal]

A lot of people weren't putting up shutters for just a 65kt storm (what we all believed this morning). Many didn't hear the 2pm, so are just now learning how much stronger it may be. Our winds will be 30kt by early afternoon tomorrow, it's getting pretty late to do those "really strong storm" preparations. I haven't heard anything about shelters.

[caribepr]

MJ
are people boarding up there?
I don 't think anyone here is doing that.

Some are. Some are relying on the good old metal louvers. Some aren't - either they don't have boards or who knows. A good friend of mine is debating because if she puts hers up, she has to leave the house, no air flow. But I think she'll end up doing it. The *big* houses are all boarded up...by their management companies.

It's just such a toss up...is it going to move farther east? Is it going to intensify so much more? I think all decisions will be made by 11 tomorrow.

Here, I have the metal louvers. The couple I'm housesitting for are freaking a bit, being far away (we all know how that feels). They are super, a young couple, visiting family up in the states who chose this time to leave hoping it would be late in the season. Dale has called a lot, how to work the gennie, move the beds away from the windows (metal louvers, strong but can leak) etc. etc. I told Dale don't worry, I have the gennie figured out, food for all of us (2 dogs, 2 cats), and plenty of vodka. When I said the vodka, he laughed and seemed to feel better.
We have a LOT of wood houses here (like, T1-11) but not so many as pre-Hugo. If we really get hit hard, it's going to be bad. But...Culebrense are a tough lot. We'll figure it out. I hope the best for all of us.
The wind is just starting to pick up now. This will also be a decision factor. Can't put up boards in driving rains very well....
Sorry for the long answer...I'm feeling chatty

[dizzyfish]

Chat away.

Someone will be here - even if I can't be.

I hope all of our islanders will be safe! All of you are very precious to us here at S2K.

I will be praying for you all.

[caribepr]

Chat away.

Someone will be here - even if I can't be.

I hope all of our islanders will be safe! All of you are very precious to us here at S2K.

I will be praying for you all.

That almost made me cry...so nice! I've gone through storms but never without friends around. Housesitting I can't just leave the animals and I can't bring them all with me somewhere (well, I could and I have friends who wouldn't mind, but it would be too traumatic for all of us). So thanks, dizzyfish!

[sweetpea]

I just got off the phone with my dad, he lives in Coqui (Salinas), PR. He actually is paying attention to this one. Has plenty of water, food, candles, batteries, etc.... He doesn't have a generator. He did get flooding in the house a couple of weeks ago with the last storm, but he fixed that. He said the street in front of his house looked like a river with the last storm. Thank god, he has these wonderful neighbors who have adopted him pretty much and help him out. I will be worried for him till I hear from him after the storm. EVERYONE in all the islands please stay safe!!!!

[caribepr]

The dogs...I've housesat for these friends for a few weeks for three years and they've never acted like this...we were all just sitting on the couch (love seat size), the little one across me, the big one shoving in next to us. I thought it was rain slashing, it was just wind, but they are flipping out. Usually they just hang out on the floor...

Sounds like your Dad has taken care of business. Of course you'll be worried but in a few days, this will be over and hopefully, we'll be okay. Hang in there! A hug from Culebra!

[dizzyfish]

Chat away.

Someone will be here - even if I can't be.

I hope all of our islanders will be safe! All of you are very precious to us here at S2K.

I will be praying for you all.

That almost made me cry...so nice! I've gone through storms but never without friends around. Housesitting I can't just leave the animals and I can't bring them all with me somewhere (well, I could and I have friends who wouldn't mind, but it would be too traumatic for all of us). So thanks, dizzyfish!

Lordy, I wish I was there with you. I would take all the animals!

Don't cry friend - we are all here for you. Please hug the dogs for me.

[sweetpea]

Thank you Caribe!!!! Stay safe. Sounds like you have some great company!!

[bvigal]

Embassy of the United States of America
Bridgetown, Barbados

Warden Message
October 14, 2008

This warden message is being issued to alert U.S. citizens residing and traveling in British Virgin Islands, St. Martin, Anguilla, and the Netherlands Antilles that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov and local governments in the Caribbean have issued alerts for Tropical Storm Omar, which is currently gaining speed and moving toward the islands of the Eastern Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds are near 70 MPH with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Omar could become a hurricane later tonight or on Wednesday, October 15. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. Omar may produce total rainfall amounts of 4 to 12 inches.

These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Omar is expected to produce large swells that will affect the west- and south-facing coasts of all of the islands of the Lesser Antilles. These prolonged swells could cause beach erosion and damage to coastal structures. For additional information, see the National Hurricane website advisory at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1549.shtml?

The U.S. Embassy will continue to monitor the storm’s track, and will issue updated messages. U.S. citizens are urged to locate shelter, monitor media reports, and follow all official instructions. U.S. citizens should carry their travel documents at all times (i.e. U.S. Passport, Birth Certificate, picture IDs, etc.) or secure them in safe, waterproof locations. We also suggest that American citizens contact friends and family in the United States with updates about their whereabouts.

Additional information on hurricanes and storm preparedness may be found in the “Hurricane Season-Know Before You Go” pamphlet at: http://www.travel.state.gov/travel/cis_ ... _2915.html , and on the “Natural Disasters” page of the Bureau of Consular Affairs’ website at: http://travel.state.gov/travel/tips/eme ... _1207.html.

Please continue to monitor the Embassy’s website for updated information, http://bridgetown.usembassy.gov. You may also consult the website: http://www.weathercarib.com for up-to-date weather tracking information on the storm.

For any emergencies involving American citizens, please contact the American Citizens Services (ACS) Unit of the U.S. Embassy’s Consular Section, located at Wildey Business Park, Wildey, St. Michael, Barbados; telephone (246)227-4000;; ACS unit fax (246)431-0179; e-mail consularbridge2@state.gov; web page http://bridgetown.usembassy.gov.
For emergencies involving American citizens in the Netherlands Antilles, please contact the U.S. Consulate General, located at J.B. Gorsiraweg #1, Willemstad, Curaçao, telephone (599-9) 461-3066; fax (599-9) 461-6489; e-mail address: acscuracao@state.gov.

U. S. Embassy
Bridgetown, Barbados

[greels]

To all my Island friends.....

Having played the "waiting game" twice this year (Hanna & Ike) I feel for you guys....please know that you will be in my thoughts and prayers as the storm approaches.....

Gretchen

[cycloneye]

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335
MILES...540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY.

[caribepr]

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335
MILES...540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY.

What do you think *the northern Leeward Islands* means...opinion, I mean

[MiamiensisWx]

A lot of people weren't putting up shutters for just a 65kt storm (what we all believed this morning). Many didn't hear the 2pm, so are just now learning how much stronger it may be. Our winds will be 30kt by early afternoon tomorrow, it's getting pretty late to do those "really strong storm" preparations. I haven't heard anything about shelters.

Unfortunately, there are people who don't realize that true 55-65 kt winds are not a picnic. Ultimately, however, a 55-65 kt TC is survivable if basic safety and security procedures are executed prior to the TC's arrival. In addition, in many cases, most areas do not experience the maximum sustained winds of a TC; the strongest winds are localized even in Cat 3-5 TCs. Andrew's maximum winds were limited to a very small area along a narrow section of the south Florida coastline. It all depends on the TC's closest approach and the proximity of the maximum sustained wind swath. I would have certainly hoisted my shutters if a 65 kt TC would move ashore near my location.

Fortunately, I'm confident that many residents in your location are well acquainted with the local topography, vulnerability, and prudent precautions.

Stay safe, everyone...

Edit for addendum: In a nutshell, I always pose questions that state, "I'm not only considering the strength/intensity, but I'm also considering the size, wind radii, closest approach, and my coastal topography. What are the answers to these questions?"

Hopefully, this response is appropriate and pertinent to the topic here...

[bvigal]

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335
MILES...540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY.

What do you think *the northern Leeward Islands* means...opinion, I mean

Yeah, that's been really bothering me MJ, I've got family up in the states reading that and getting confused. They said it at 5pm, too. Maybe we aren't getting the storm, they just forgot to tell us!!

[caribepr]

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335
MILES...540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY.

What do you think *the northern Leeward Islands* means...opinion, I mean

Yeah, that's been really bothering me MJ, I've got family up in the states reading that and getting confused. They said it at 5pm, too. Maybe we aren't getting the storm, they just forgot to tell us!!

All I know is, we do what we do, and tell our friends and family the same. It's just rough, we're litttle tiny targets that can suffer hugely from not much. We'll know more tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,it will be a hurricane at 11 PM.Best Track update shows it.

AL, 15, 2008101500, , BEST, 0, 141N, 683W, 65, 979