OMAR: Aftermath=PR / VI / N.Leewards

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Gustywind
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#141 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:54 am

Code red for you Msbee, so RED ALERT for ST MARTEEN at 11am by the Pro Met of Meteo-France. :( :roll: . i translate it for you in English this time!
Predictions for Meteo-France for you Msbee, be prepared and safe...
Forecasts:
Omar a cat 1 hurricance for the moment is in the Caribbean Sea, and is moving on the NE. He must travel between St Marteen and Puerto Rico tonight as surely a CAT 2 hurricane.
Datas:
This cane will bring a strong and dangerous swell from SOUTHWEST , then WEST with at least 4 or 5 METERS during this night and Thursday.
We can expect strong wind from SOUTHWEST, then WEST who can be usually higher than 100 kilometers ( 55-57 kts ) :eek: and with gustywinds ( not me lol) from 65 to 80 kts (120 to 150 kilometers per hour). :(
The speed of the winds will be adujsted in relation with the observed and forecasted path of Omar.
Very huge amounts of water are expected with values near 100 to 200 millimeters and much more too... :double:
Consequences:
Unsual direction and strength of the winds, and swell from unsual strength and direction can bring numerous damages!
Summuray: Strong risk/ important impact .
Duration:
Cyclonics effets are expected already tonight, next weather forecast at 6PM or earlier if evolution...
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#142 Postby msbee » Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:15 pm

thanks gusty
man, did you pick your name correctly LOL
well. we're all gonna get a big blow, no matter how you look at it.
who gets the brunt of it remains to be seen.
so far the weather has stayed calm, with no wind, and light drizzle. This web cam shows the Atlantic side of the island, facing
east. as you can see, seas are calm.

http://islandcam.columbiasussex.com/view/index.shtml

I just came from over the hill and so far the seas over there which are south and west are calm too, but not for long I suspect.
everything is closing down here and shelters are opening up. The airport is supposed to close around 4 PM.
I don't see many signs of people boarding up.

according to the how close can it get estimate on stormcarib com
http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi
on it's present course as of the 11 AM update,, Omar will pass about 84 miles north and west of us. that is further than it was estimated as of the 8 AM track.
so maybe a little better news for sxm? ....maybe worse news for PR and VI?

stay tuned and be safe everyone
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#143 Postby artist » Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:18 pm

hey msbee! All of you there on all the islands to be affected are in my thoughts and prayers. Keep us up to date as long as you can, please.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#144 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:41 pm

HURRICANE OMAR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
131 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AT IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...

.AT 1100 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED BY
SATELLITE AND NWS SAN JUAN DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ST CROIX...AND ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND OMAR SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND
OF 64 MPH...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE
WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL
STRUCTURES.

PRZ001>011-161745-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-
131 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

STORM INFORMATION...LOCATION...INTENSITY AND TRACK UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
PUERTO RICO.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTERESTS ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE URGED TO RUSH TO COMPLETION STORM
PREPARATIONS IMMEDIATELY...AS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINS TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
PROBLEMS...AS WELL AS LAND AND MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS ACROSS
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER RELOCATING TO SAFER
AREAS FOR THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

STORM TIDES OF 1-2 FEET ARE TO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH AND
EAST COASTS OF THE ISLAND LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION SUPERIMPOSED UPON THESE ELEVATED
TIDES.

...WINDS...

RESIDENTS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD
PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLE GUSTS JUST
UNDER HURRICANE FORCE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
CURRENTLY RANGES FROM 9 PERCENT ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
COASTS TO 60 PERCENT AT CEIBA ALONG THE EAST COAST...WHILE THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS RANGES FROM 2 PERCENT ACROSS
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND TO 10 PERCENT AT CEIBA.

...INLAND FLOODING...

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF OMAR...
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SPIRAL BANDS...AND ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE CENTER OF ITS PATH.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT UPDATE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED AROUND 3 PM.

$$
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#145 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:44 pm

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
VIC010-152145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0081.081015T1739Z-081015T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
139 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING COUNTY

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 5:45 PM AST

* AT 1:35 PM AST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLASH FLOODING FROM FREQUENT
RAINBANDS PASSING OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE PAST 90 MINUTES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS
AND LANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 1766 6465 1764 6491 1768 6493 1781 6490
1783 6472 1780 6470 1778 6456 1772 6456

$$

SS
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#146 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:04 pm

Gustywind and HUC,Guadeloupe has now a Tropical Storm Watch.

WTNT35 KNHC 151759
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
200 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 200 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380
KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR
SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.3 N...66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#147 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:Gustywind and HUC,Guadeloupe has now a Tropical Storm Watch.

WTNT35 KNHC 151759
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
200 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 200 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380
KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR
SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.3 N...66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.

$
FORECASTER STEWART

Waouw tkanks Cycloneye ...??? But that's mean that sustained winds near 34 kts ( TS storm strenght) are expected on Guadeloupe??? I'm a little doubtfull , or does it mean that only we're in orange alert?? I don't understand ? If TS watches means orange alert no problem because since yesterday afternoon we"re in Orange alert for the swell strong showers and tsorms added to gust to 40kts approximately and sustained winds at 25kts, if not the weather forecast has really changed and sustained winds are forecasted to be UP near 34 kts, that will be very amazing...
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#148 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:18 pm

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
202 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

AMZ722-725-732-735-151945-
202 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND OUTER RAINBANDS OF OMAR MOVING
INTO CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...

AT 1:45 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
OMAR LOCATED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN...ABOUT 185 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ST CROIX. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF OMAR HAVE BEGUN TO BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL SPREAD NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO 12 FEET
AND GREATER BEFORE 4 PM.

MARINERS ACROSS THESE WATERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY SECURED YOUR
VESSELS IN HURRICANE SAFE HAVENS...AND EVACUATED INLAND TO RIDE OUT
THE STORM.

LAT...LON 1791 6608 1850 6399 1699 6400 1697 6609

$$

SS
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#149 Postby bvigal » Wed Oct 15, 2008 2:52 pm

Hi guys! Some very interesting reading here. I especially appreciated the bulletin saying above 500 ft a whole additional category of wind. My apartment is 1100 feet up, open to NE - W, and I closed it up and left!

Now happily ensconced in Fort Knox! The de-humidifiers are running, there are 8 of us here (and 3 kids), and dinner is on the grill. I almost was too late getting out (around 2pm), the roads were terrible, the flat ones like ponds, the hilly ones like rivers. Coming down this dead-end road, I had to drive across a 30ft-wide torrent of leaping water crossing the road, that has been known to float cars. It had only been raining about an hour, and not that hard. Well, I bit the bullet, shoved the 4-wheel into low, and drove through. I am NOT going anywhere now!

The rain has let up to just a drizzle last hour. We are looking north and northwest, way down from top of hill, so no real wind here.

Stay safe, all my neighbors!!!
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#150 Postby caribepr » Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:05 pm

bvigal wrote:Hi guys! Some very interesting reading here. I especially appreciated the bulletin saying above 500 ft a whole additional category of wind. My apartment is 1100 feet up, open to NE - W, and I closed it up and left!

Now happily ensconced in Fort Knox! The de-humidifiers are running, there are 8 of us here (and 3 kids), and dinner is on the grill. I almost was too late getting out (around 2pm), the roads were terrible, the flat ones like ponds, the hilly ones like rivers. Coming down this dead-end road, I had to drive across a 30ft-wide torrent of leaping water crossing the road, that has been known to float cars. It had only been raining about an hour, and not that hard. Well, I bit the bullet, shoved the 4-wheel into low, and drove through. I am NOT going anywhere now!

The rain has let up to just a drizzle last hour. We are looking north and northwest, way down from top of hill, so no real wind here.

Stay safe, all my neighbors!!!

You know I'm happy...VERY glad you did it, very trembly reading of your *river* crossing.
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#151 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:20 pm

Everyone, stay safe. The good news is that Omar is a small cyclone and is moving at a brisk speed, which is always good.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#152 Postby BatzVI » Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:24 pm

Now is the worst part....the anticipation....all preps done, just waiting for it to be over.....stay safe all....
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#153 Postby msbee » Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:27 pm

caribepr wrote:
bvigal wrote:Hi guys! Some very interesting reading here. I especially appreciated the bulletin saying above 500 ft a whole additional category of wind. My apartment is 1100 feet up, open to NE - W, and I closed it up and left!

Now happily ensconced in Fort Knox! The de-humidifiers are running, there are 8 of us here (and 3 kids), and dinner is on the grill. I almost was too late getting out (around 2pm), the roads were terrible, the flat ones like ponds, the hilly ones like rivers. Coming down this dead-end road, I had to drive across a 30ft-wide torrent of leaping water crossing the road, that has been known to float cars. It had only been raining about an hour, and not that hard. Well, I bit the bullet, shoved the 4-wheel into low, and drove through. I am NOT going anywhere now!

The rain has let up to just a drizzle last hour. We are looking north and northwest, way down from top of hill, so no real wind here.e

Stay safe, all my neighbors!!!

You know I'm happy...VERY glad you did it, very trembly reading of your *river* crossing.


me too. better to be safe..thinking of you both
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#154 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:43 pm

Interresting discussion of a correspondant from Antigua....

I don't know if this correspondant is an amateur or an expert but since this morning it's its second post speaking about a possible shift in the path: first one this morning saying that:"However just spoke to our met office and they say THERE COULD BE A SHIFT to the SOUTH and we would be in the more direct path so we must pay close attention for the next advisory this morning.
The second one this afternoon: Antigua is still very much ON ALERT in case the path changes .. Which of course happens in HURRICANES!
Hope its purely a pretty subjective feeling, but we never know all the past looks like that Omar is drifting ENE than NE this afternhurricanes in these periods has been pretty ERACTICALS so in any case we should continue to not let our guard down, and monitor closely the situation. ALL my thougts are for BVI, Tortola and St Marteen under a direct hit and all the Leewards to the east and maybe to in the SE afterall if a shift can be observed ( hope noo!!).
.Stay Safe islanders and tkanks for all these nice and quick infos...
Updates from the Islands -
- - Antigua - -
|
- HURRICANE OMAR BIG THUNDER AND LIGHTENIING!
From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm at candw.ag>
Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:18:10 -0400

GOODNESS.. It is still a long way off but we are getting BIG THUNDER AND LIGHTENING - no rain yet......! I am going to power down for a while as I also have more "hurricane preparedness" to do ... So will hopefully be back on line for the 5 p.m. Report. Antigua is still very much ON ALERT in case the path changes .. Which of course happens in HURRICANES!

Signing off for now...
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#155 Postby expat2carib » Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:00 pm

Just arrived on St. Maarten from Dominica for some hours ago. Bad planning :double:

No flights from Antigua -exept one to St. Maarten 8-) - All Liat flights were filling up fuel and left without passengers. Probably to a safe heaven on one of the other islands.

They ARE taking it serious here. Lots of boarding up. All will be closed from 6 until......

Did found a safe place in a high concrete building overlooking the bay.

Lots of boaters in panic......

Bought a flashlight... some food and beer and rum and rum and rum.... :grrr:
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#156 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:17 pm

Videos and images of the damage caused by Omar in Curaçao.

http://www.versgeperst.com/?p=401
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#157 Postby caribepr » Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:19 pm

Yeow...surprised Liat was flying at all! Sigh...the boaters. Hoping they all do the smart thing. Better to lose a boat than a life or lives, yet it happens every time.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#158 Postby HUC » Wed Oct 15, 2008 5:27 pm

A eantastic lighting and rumble festival in the Carribean,20kms west of the west coast of Guadeloupe:a feeder band of OMAR.Friends in the Nth islands,take this on seriously,please.Stay safe.
The sea is chopy at the present with sweel to 1,5meters;but breakers are higher .In my opinio,;the carribean coast had to suffer of this rough sea...
Of course,no sleep to night All the comunity support the friends in teh core of Omar .See you later
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#159 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 15, 2008 5:35 pm

HUC wrote:A eantastic lighting and rumble festival in the Carribean,20kms west of the west coast of Guadeloupe:a feeder band of OMAR.Friends in the Nth islands,take this on seriously,please.Stay safe.
The sea is chopy at the present with sweel to 1,5meters;but breakers are higher .In my opinio,;the carribean coast had to suffer of this rough sea...
Of course,no sleep to night All the comunity support the friends in teh core of Omar .See you later

Hi HUC 100 agree with the lightnings are making the SHOW, that's AMAZING!!! I was out, numerous strong showers and fanstatics lightnings, the thunder is rumbling too...let's see what happens tonight, a very long night ahead for us and all the Leewards , keep the faith ST Marteen we're with you... :)
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Re: ATL OMAR: Obs,Prep,Local Statements,PR,VI,N.Leewards

#160 Postby greels » Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:13 pm

Please let us know how you fare after Omar's passes.....you are all in my thoughts this evening ....please be safe.

Gretchen
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