Ida : Aftermath North Gulf Coast,Fla Peninsula

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cycloneye
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Ida : Aftermath North Gulf Coast,Fla Peninsula

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:45 pm

Here is a thread for the members to post discussions from the different areas Northern Gulf coast,Florida Penninsula,Yucatan Penninsula and Cuba as well preparations,Observations etc.
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep in N Gulf Coast,Fla Peninsula,Yucatan,Cuba

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 1:48 pm

A message from Cancun.

Cancun, Cozumel and the Riviera Maya
By "Kevin & Abril Stolz" <admin at travel2rivieramaya.com>
Date: Sat, 7 Nov 2009 10:16:16 -0600

Well I figured it was about time to get an update out there, been crazy in Playa. We have been having a week or so of Rain, Rain and more rain so throwing IDA in the mix with more rain and wind will surely make things interesting.

It has been raining off and on (mostly on) since yesterday even since a few days ago, we haven’t opened the restaurant or beach club now since a few days ago. Most of the area from Cancun to Puerto Aventuras is experiencing some level of flooding and increase in the number of traffic accidents as well as injuries.

Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Quintana Roo from Tulum (modified from before where Punta Allen was in there) to El Cuyo on the northeast corner of the Peninsula of Yucatan and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Punta Allen to Cabo Catoche. We see that IDA continues on her northerly course and we are of course waiting to see if and when she makes that jog toward the northwest to have a better idea of where she will come ashore if she does in Mexico or Cuba.

http://stormcarib.com/
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep in N Gulf Coast,Fla Peninsula,Yucatan,Cuba

#3 Postby rockyman » Sat Nov 07, 2009 3:25 pm

Folks on my low lying island (Dauphin Island, Alabama) are preparing for an overwash on the west end...I'm already staying up in Mobile, but I'll probably drive back to the Island tomorrow and move our other car from under our house. The house is 15 feet off the ground, with nothing under it except gravel...so I think we'll be OK from this one. If anything interesting happens, I'll be sure to update everyone with pictures. What a way to end the season!!
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep in N Gulf Coast,Fla Peninsula,Yucatan,Cuba

#4 Postby breeze » Sat Nov 07, 2009 4:41 pm

Thanks for posting the article from Cancun, Luis. My best friend and her husband are in Cancun
and not due to leave until 4:00pm CST tomorrow, and I have been updating them on the latest
on TS Ida. Right now, it looks like their departure is going to be a close call!
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep in N Gulf Coast,Fla Peninsula,Yucatan,Cuba

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:17 pm

TALLAHASSEE NWS Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE 19 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO EAST TX. TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED AN
AREA OF HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A CUTOFF LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN TX. IT WAS A MILD AND DRY DAY ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BRINGING IDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
ON MONDAY. IDA IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AS IT ENTRAINS ABUNDANT MID LAYER DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST AND BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG A
FRONT. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE F.S.U. CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM SHOWS IDA
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THIS LIKELY TRANSITION...OUR AREA WILL STILL GET QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN AND WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIEST QPF JUST WEST AND NORTH
OF OUR AREA...WITHIN THE MAIN FRONTOGENESIS BAND. THE ECMWF HAS
THIS RAIN BAND ALL ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. THE NAM
SEEMED MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THE ANSWER PROBABLY LIES
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN
(STORM TOTAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. OF COURSE LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD BE DOUBLE OR TRIPLE THIS. FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE...WHICH
SHOULD CAP THE RAINFALL MAXIMA SOMEWHAT. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRANSITION FROM TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL...WE
WILL NOT BE USING THE TERMS OF UNCERTAINTY WORDING IN SOME OF OUR
FORECAST PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY
OVER LAND AT THIS TIME AS OUR AREA WILL LIKELY IN A SHALLOW STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep in N Gulf Coast,Fla Peninsula,Yucatan,Cuba

#6 Postby Crostorm » Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:36 pm

Rain Rain and more rain?

* By "Kevin & Abril Stolz" <admin at travel2rivieramaya.com>
* Date: Sat, 7 Nov 2009 17:13:13 -0600

Just an update, in between the rain and the well rain out to the store to get something sweet and see what is happening around the area.



Looking at the Navy’s Track of the storm and data from the NHC it appears that Cancun, Playa Del Carmen and most of the Riviera Maya will be safe from the impact of IDA as it seems since she has not turned as yet toward the north west she will indeed pass between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on route to Florida as it seems right now.



Cozumel will most likely see the worst of the rain and Cancun as well will continue to get hammered as the storm continues moving north in the Caribbean and intensifying over the next 12 hours. Sometime before midnight I expect that IDA will become a Cat. 1 Hurricane since she is out over the open Caribbean. The Cayman Islands seem like they should be getting heavy rain as well but last report from that island doesn’t mention rain.



Here is an image from Cancun showing the flooding along Tulum Ave not far from Plaza Las Americas


Image

http://stormcarib.com
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep in N Gulf Coast,Fla Peninsula,Yucatan,Cuba

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:23 pm

If there are web cams from the different places that will be affected directly or indirectly by Ida any member can post them here for us to see in real time what is going on.
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#8 Postby Crostorm » Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:33 pm

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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep in N Gulf Coast,Fla Peninsula,Yucatan,Cuba

#9 Postby IvanSurvivor » Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:52 pm

Looking for the Pensacola Beach cam and found this website. It has links to all the Gulf Coast hotspots and more. It's dark right now so can't see much...

http://www.beachhunter.net/webcams/index.htm
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep,Web Cams N Gulf Coast,Fla Pen,Yucatan,Cuba

#10 Postby btangy » Sat Nov 07, 2009 11:03 pm

Conditions in Playa Del Carmen at 10pm CST. Outer bands of Ida continue to bring very intense bursts of rain for about 15-20 minutes and gusty winds est. to 30mph. Very humid, warm night here otherwise.
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep,Web Cams N Gulf Coast,Fla Pen,Yucatan,Cuba

#11 Postby artist » Sat Nov 07, 2009 11:32 pm

btangy wrote:Conditions in Playa Del Carmen at 10pm CST. Outer bands of Ida continue to bring very intense bursts of rain for about 15-20 minutes and gusty winds est. to 30mph. Very humid, warm night here otherwise.

thanks for the update btangy! What a way to spend a holiday huh?
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep,Web Cams N Gulf Coast,Fla Pen,Yucatan,Cuba

#12 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:32 am

KMOB (NWS Mobile-Pensacola) Area Forecast Discussion:

000
FXUS64 KMOB 081023
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
422 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE WIND LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A NORTHWARD MOVING IDA INTERACTS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
RAINFALL FROM IDA UNTIL MONDAY. AS IDA MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEX
TODAY...AM EXPECTING SWELLS FROM IDA TO BEGIN REACHING THE FA
TONIGHT...CAUSING COASTAL WATER PROBLEMS...THOUGH A DECREASING TIDAL
RANGE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL HELP TO MITIGATE THAT.

/16

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IDA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE AND NEAR ITS PEAK STRENGTH. ALSO
ABOUT THE TIME SHE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME RAIN MAY BE ONGOING
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...THE ONSET OF HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. 6 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ABOUT WHAT THE STORM TOTAL QPF IS SO AM NOT
ANTICIPATING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THE MOMENT. INCREASING WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND BEACHES
WITH A WIND ADVISORY LIKELY REQUIRED BY MONDAY EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES. AS IDA BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL THE WIND FIELD WILL
EXPAND AND THE SPEEDS WILL LOWER A BIT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS IDA AND
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY MORNING AND EASTERN SECTIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IDA
OR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MAKES IT CLOSER APPROACH TO THE COAST
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST. RAIN ENDING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL AND MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE VARIOUS
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. IF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS...NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...SHOULD BE ISSUED LATER BY THE HURRICANE
CENTER THEN THE SPECIFIC INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE HLS. /11


.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)AS IDA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX
TODAY...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE..THOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GENERALLY ABOVE 12K`. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AS THE COMBINATION OF IDA APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA COAST CREATES A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. CURRENT NHC FORECAST PUTS RAINBANDS STARTING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. /16

MARINE...IDA WILL START MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY....WITH THE CENTER APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
MARINE FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH NHC EXPECTING IDA TO BEGIN
TRANSITIONING TO EXTRA-TROPICAL...NO TROPICAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
ARE EXPECTED ATTM...THOUGH THIS MAY CHANGE. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
PATH OF IDA...CLOSER TO THE FA...STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG
WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME UNDER THE INFLUENCE. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THE FA BUMPING STORM LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AM
HOLDING OFF ISSUING A STORM WATCH/WARNING ATTM...GIVING SOME TIME
FOR THE CURRENT CHANGES TO PROPAGATE.

FOR THE FORECAST...SCA LEVEL WINDS/SEAS INTO TONIGHT...WITH GALES
ARRIVING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK
INTO SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.


/16
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep,Web Cams N Gulf Coast,Fla Pen,Yucatan,Cuba

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 7:33 am

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#15 Postby BZSTORM » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:00 am

heres 3 webcams for cancun not best quality as they all appear to be wet/blurry.
http://cancun.travel/en/maps-multimedia-and-downloads/#
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#16 Postby BZSTORM » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:18 am

webcam view of beach front in Cozumel http://www.scubaclubcozumel.com/webcam.html
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#17 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:56 am

My Weather Station sits atop the roof (5ft above the roof) of my house about 25ft above the ground clear from any building or tree's. I also have it on rapid fire so the winds, temps, wind direction and rainfall updates every few seconds. Should provide for some interesting Obs. with whatever we get from Ida as I'm only about 1 mile as a bird flies from the coast a 300 yds from the Choctawatchee Bay!

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLMIRAM6
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep,Web Cams N Gulf Coast,Fla Pen,Yucatan,Cuba

#18 Postby Macrocane » Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:12 pm

This is unbelievable, yesterday 96-E made landfall in El Salvador and produced very heavy rains. The highest amount of rainfall was 355mm (14 inches) in just 24 hours and the national accumulation of rain from Ida and 96 E is more than 500 mm (20 inches) more than 500 mm that's the same rainfall that Mitch and Stan produced. National emergency may be declared. It's a tragedy the first reports indicate that at least 54 people are dead and 5000 homeless this numbers may rise in the coming hours, this is the worst disaster for El Salvador since Stan. My best wishes are with all the affected and I hope that Ida won't ba that bad as this situation. Here is a link if you can read spanish:

Disaster in El Salvador

This is the map of the accumulated rain between 7:00 am saturday and 7:00 am today

Image

I have been told that I can post the updates of the disaster here so I will be doing that when new information arrives.
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#19 Postby artist » Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:14 pm

we will be watching for it macrocane. This I think is usually moved to the aftermath forum when the storm has disipated after a couple of days.
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Re: Ida : Obs,Prep,Web Cams N Gulf Coast,Fla Pen,Yucatan,Cuba

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:16 pm

Yes Macrocane,this thread will be moved to the aftermath forum as soon Ida is gone.
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