Hurricane Wilma Anniversary Thread

[Jim Cantore]

This formed

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL CCB
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...CORRECTION FOR BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED FOR
FOR GRAND CAYMAN LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8
WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND
ABOUT 85 MILES... 140 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$
NNNN

[Ptarmigan]

It became Wilma, the strongest Atlantic Hurricane on record.

[MiamiensisWx]

Wilma is born to this day a year ago...

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

...TROPICAL STORM WILMA BECOMES THE 21ST NAMED STORM OF THE 2005
ATLANTIC SEASON OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TIES THE RECORD FOR NAMED STORMS SET BACK IN 1933...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES
... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES
WILMA THE 21ST NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON... WHICH TIES THE RECORD OF 21 NAMED STORMS SET BACK IN
1933. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
NNNN

By the way, I believe the thread title may need to be changed to reflect the first anniversary of Wilma.

[Jim Cantore]

[Jim Cantore]

By the way, I believe the thread title may need to be changed to reflect the first anniversary of Wilma.

Done

[Jim Cantore]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA BECOMES THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON AS IT HEADS
NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES... 320 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 200
MILES... 325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR... AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$
NNNN

[Jim Cantore]

The ticking timebomb.

[MiamiensisWx]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO WILMA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES... 290 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...12 KM/HR. A
MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$
NNNN

[Jim Cantore]

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90
KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THIS MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. THE RIDGES SHOULD
COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE
WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE
LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY
AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF
FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA
TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.
HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL
COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS
SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA
WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON
WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT
ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT


$$
NNNN

[MiamiensisWx]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO
CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT
185 MILES... 295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
405 MILES... 650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH WILMA BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY BECOMING A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 155 MILES...250 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 50 MPH... 81 KH/HR...WITH A GUST OF 58 MPH... 94 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90
KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THIS MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. THE RIDGES SHOULD
COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE
WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE
LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY
AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF
FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA
TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.
HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL
COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS
SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA
WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON
WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT
ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT


$$
NNNN

[Jim Cantore]

I couldn't believe what I was seeing, an unbelieveable CDO. I went to bed at about 12:30am to a 110mph storm expecting a wake up to a category 4. When I heard 882mb, my reaction would need to be censored. It was Dennis, Katrina, and Rita all over again. I was on the beach fishing when a friend of me and my dads mentioned it. I ran to the radio and my jaws hit the floor. Unfreakinbelieveable.

[MiamiensisWx]

[Jim Cantore]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 954 MB
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 901 MB
AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 884 MB
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB

----------------------------

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH

---------------------------

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 365 MILES...
590 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 884
MB...26.10 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER RECORDED IN A
HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS PRESSURE VALUE
SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL IT IS FULLY CALIBRATED.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 884 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$
NNNN

-------------------

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA MAINTAINING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...RECORD PRESSURE
CONFIRMED BY AIRCRAFT CREW...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...
550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES THIS INTENSE AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB...26.05 INCHES. THIS IS THE
LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$
NNNN

---------------------

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON SWAN ISLAND.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE
CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 325
MILES... 520 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 882 MB...26.05 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 882 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$
NNNN

[Jim Cantore]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER
WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES... 480 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS WOBBLING AROUND AN AVERAGE MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF WILMA SHORTLY TO
PROVIDE A DIRECT MEASURE OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 83.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$
NNNN

[isobar]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 884
MB...26.10 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER RECORDED IN A
HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS PRESSURE VALUE
SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL IT IS FULLY CALIBRATED.

In addition to being stunned by the rapid intensification, 2 nmi eye, etc., my mind was also numbed by the tight wind field. That's a gradient more like a monster tornado.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... ndex.shtml

some things, including how I called my then 3 year old brother to tell him I loved him in case I was "blown away"and could never see him again will be included

[Jim Cantore]

I know it didn't happen, but could anyone imagine what Wilma would have done if she made landfall at her peak?

[Jim Cantore]

I threw this together earlier

[Jim Cantore]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...
460 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 892 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$
NNNN

[Jim Cantore]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...WILMA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
220 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
COASTLINE OF THE YUCATAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A
LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA AIRCRAFT WASS 918
MB...27.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...18.9 N... 85.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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