Maybe I have the wrong definition of "model"

[Senobia]

When I hear "models", I think/see this:



Not the other kind where the land masses are barely distinguishable and all the squiggly lines EVERYwhere that only confuse.

Which is the correct picture for the term "models" when you hear "The next models will be out at Xpm"?

[wxmann_91]

Both. The models on that map are only a handful of the hundreds of models out there.

[bob rulz]

That's just a plot of the model tracks. The actual model forecasts are found at different sites.

[wjs3]

To add even more color to this...

Think of the models as a set of equations that take starting atmospheric conditions and simulate them going forward in discrete chunks of time across various horizontal and vertical slices of the atmosphere. The result is an estimation of a number of different atmospheric parameters across time and place (and by place, we mean both across latitiude and longitude, as well as up and down in the atmosphere.)

There are some models that work differently...take a look at the NHC FAQ for more info...but many of the models we discuss work as I've described.


One set of outputs from a model is an estimate of the location of the cyclones...these get plotted on the charts you see.