Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

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Dean_175
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Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

#1 Postby Dean_175 » Fri May 29, 2020 4:53 pm

By 2005 I simply mean a storm being named “Alpha”.2010 was promising ... record warm SST in the Atlantic and a very impressive peak season. If it wasn’t for all the Saharan air in that summer, we would likely have saw a few more storms that would have brought that year to the Greek Alphabet.
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Re: Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat May 30, 2020 1:51 am

In terms of quantity, I would say yes. With all the observation techniques available and the naming convention that allows subtropical storms to be given a name, a 22 storm season which would get us into Greek territory is likely to happen in the next 50 years.

Seasons like 1887 and 1933 would have easily gotten to 22+ storms, had they happened in the 21st century.
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Re: Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

#3 Postby wxman57 » Sat May 30, 2020 9:11 am

If the NHC keeps naming weak storms or subtropical storms that last 6-12 hours (or less) then it's inevitable. We are now better able to detect short-lived storms, but the mentality at the NHC has changed over the decades to one that is more likely to name a weaker, less-organized, and possibly questionable storm than in the past. Maybe we'll hit 30 this season. ;-)
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Re: Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

#4 Postby Shell Mound » Sat May 30, 2020 9:22 am

wxman57 wrote:If the NHC keeps naming weak storms or subtropical storms that last 6-12 hours (or less) then it's inevitable. We are now better able to detect short-lived storms, but the mentality at the NHC has changed over the decades to one that is more likely to name a weaker, less-organized, and possibly questionable storm than in the past. Maybe we'll hit 30 this season.

What criteria would you personally use to determine whether a system merits classification as a TS?
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Re: Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

#5 Postby gfsperpendicular » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:45 am

Well, we are headed for the Greeks, probably in mid-September, no borderline storms have been named, and only Kyle lasted fewer than 2 days without making landfall. So I'd say this year qualifies.
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Re: Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

#6 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:12 am

gfsperpendicular wrote:Well, we are headed for the Greeks, probably in mid-September, no borderline storms have been named, and only Kyle lasted fewer than 2 days without making landfall. So I'd say this year qualifies.


Sally COULD be the CONUS ...... FOURTH .... you read that right ...... FOURTH landfalling #2020 Hurricane. I have completely tossed out the window :Can: the significance of ACE for this season. Then I ran outside and stomped on it some more. Still a long way to go. It's quite possible that 2005 will be unseated by 2020 ACE or no ACE.
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Re: Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

#7 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:16 pm

toad strangler wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:Well, we are headed for the Greeks, probably in mid-September, no borderline storms have been named, and only Kyle lasted fewer than 2 days without making landfall. So I'd say this year qualifies.


Sally COULD be the CONUS ...... FOURTH .... you read that right ...... FOURTH landfalling #2020 Hurricane. I have completely tossed out the window :Can: the significance of ACE for this season. Then I ran outside and stomped on it some more. Still a long way to go. It's quite possible that 2005 will be unseated by 2020 ACE or no ACE.

I agree with this. Too many people focus on ACE to determine if a season is technically hyperactive of not. To me it's based on a mix of named storms, impacts, and ACE, but mostly storms and impacts. To me, 2020 is a hyperactive season regardless of how many majors and ACE we end up with when it is all said and done
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Re: Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

#8 Postby DestinHurricane » Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:18 pm

In terms of named storms, yes. In terms of major impacts to the CONUS, probably not.
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Re: Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

#9 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:25 pm

Seasons like this one as far as named storms may have happened more frequently in decades past if we consider the fact some the storms this year, particularly the weaker shorter-lived ones, probably would not have been named in years past due to lack of technology. Wxman57 had posted a graphic a while back that clearly showed more storms being named over time especially in recent years than decades ago.
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Re: Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

#10 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:53 pm

gatorcane wrote:Seasons like this one as far as named storms may have happened more frequently in decades past if we consider the fact some the storms this year, particularly the weaker shorter-lived ones, probably would not have been named in years past due to lack of technology. Wxman57 had posted a graphic a while back that clearly showed more storms being named over time especially in recent years than decades ago.


List the seasons that included four hurricane CONUS landfalls. I bet that list is tiny. (2005 had FIVE with 3 majors) This has absolutely nothing in any way shape or form to do with the weak borderline storms that have formed. Of course, still need Sally to make it #4. Which is looking a bit more sketchy than yesterday.
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Re: Do you think we will see another Altantic hurricane season like 2005 in the next 50 years?

#11 Postby FrontRunner » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:20 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
wxman57 wrote:If the NHC keeps naming weak storms or subtropical storms that last 6-12 hours (or less) then it's inevitable. We are now better able to detect short-lived storms, but the mentality at the NHC has changed over the decades to one that is more likely to name a weaker, less-organized, and possibly questionable storm than in the past. Maybe we'll hit 30 this season.

What criteria would you personally use to determine whether a system merits classification as a TS?


I'm interested in that criteria as well. It sounds as though there's an objection to the NHC becoming more accurate over the decades. Also how many storms have there actually been that lasted 6-12 hours? It's very rare.
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