STORM2K

Not getting an answer in the tropical threads so thought maybe I could get one here.

Is it possible for that upper level trof staying put throughout the whole season? Might the GOM get no canes at all this year or still a possibility of a home grown one? If it stays in place, is it due to el nino?

I'm an amateur's amateur as far as tropical weather is concerned, but here's my take on your question:

The weather pattern which is currently in place does not favor tropical development in the GOM. Also, westerlies tend to be stronger in an El Nino season, causing more shear and reducing chances for development. Nonetheless, you cannot say with any degree of certainty that a system will not form in the Gulf this season. The chances, however, appear to be less than in recent years. Many point to the 2006 season as having a somewhat similar pattern to this tropical season (at least, so far). 2006 saw an average number of storms in the Atlantic basin, but most recurved out to sea, missing the continental U.S.

A long tracking, Cape Verde system making it all the way across the Atlantic and into the Gulf appears less likely this season. A system forming in the Gulf is more plausible, but perhaps less so than in the last few years. Be thankful. If we can get through the next 5-6 weeks, the threat will be just about elimnated for this year for our part of the coast. Many in SW LA and SE TX have suffered greatly from 2005-2008 with Rita, Humberto, Edouard, Gustav, and Ike.

Conditions aloft can change very quickly in the tropical Atlantic. Stay prepared because it just takes a couple of days for something close to the coast to spin up rapidly.

Thank you very much for explaining.

We deserve a break.....we've earned it!!