Major Hurricane probability for NC/SC
Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:30 pm
I live by the Cape Fear River and will begin storm chasing this coming season (assuming it's not a repeat of last season). Anyway, I was curious as to the probability and likelihood of major hurricane strikes in the area (namely from Charleston to Cape Hatteras). I know quite a few have happened but Fran being the last one nearly 18 years ago is a little unsettling for my home area. I know I've seen diagrams of strike probability but not for Cat 3, 4, or 5 individually.
Maybe also take likelihoods of exact locations, Hugo was Charleston, Hazel was Sunset Beach/North Myrtle, while San Ciriaco (a strong 3 I believe) was Cape Hatteras and probably the worst the OBX has ever seen in recorded memory over 100 years ago. For Category 4 or stronger a lot of perfect things have to happen (time spent over Gulf Stream, no dry air, accelerating forward motion as it nears landfall, etc) so it would be interesting to know how often a Hazel or worse affects my region.
Maybe also take likelihoods of exact locations, Hugo was Charleston, Hazel was Sunset Beach/North Myrtle, while San Ciriaco (a strong 3 I believe) was Cape Hatteras and probably the worst the OBX has ever seen in recorded memory over 100 years ago. For Category 4 or stronger a lot of perfect things have to happen (time spent over Gulf Stream, no dry air, accelerating forward motion as it nears landfall, etc) so it would be interesting to know how often a Hazel or worse affects my region.
