Has the NHC ever falsely issued advisories?

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Dean_175
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Has the NHC ever falsely issued advisories?

#1 Postby Dean_175 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:43 am

As you know, the NHC often adds storms in post-season reanalysis or adjusts the recorded intensity of systems.

I can't think of a case (in the modern era) where a system's maximum intensity has been OVER-estimated (though many have been operationally underestimated (Dean, Felix, Emily (2005), WIlma)). There have been cases though of storms who have been over-estimated at a given time point (Patricia at landfall).

What would happen if a storm were to be named based on Dvorak intensity estimate on satellite or scatterometry--but then was found to not have had tropical storm winds (such as by Recon)? Has this actually ever happened in recent decades?

I can think of a few instances where other agencies have believed that a system was (sub)tropical, but NWS disagreed. For example, the 2016 Bay of Biscay cyclone was considered subtropical by Meteo-France -but NWS believed the system to have had a weak frontal boundary extending into the center.

I don't mean to make this thread to criticize the validity of any meteorological agency, it is just a question that I have wondered as it is common for NHC to adjust upward peak intensities post-operationally or add storms in re-analysis that were not considered tropical at the time- and was wondering if the reverse has ever happened.
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