Has the NHC ever falsely issued advisories?

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Has the NHC ever falsely issued advisories?

#1 Postby Dean_175 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:43 am

As you know, the NHC often adds storms in post-season reanalysis or adjusts the recorded intensity of systems.

I can't think of a case (in the modern era) where a system's maximum intensity has been OVER-estimated (though many have been operationally underestimated (Dean, Felix, Emily (2005), WIlma)). There have been cases though of storms who have been over-estimated at a given time point (Patricia at landfall).

What would happen if a storm were to be named based on Dvorak intensity estimate on satellite or scatterometry--but then was found to not have had tropical storm winds (such as by Recon)? Has this actually ever happened in recent decades?

I can think of a few instances where other agencies have believed that a system was (sub)tropical, but NWS disagreed. For example, the 2016 Bay of Biscay cyclone was considered subtropical by Meteo-France -but NWS believed the system to have had a weak frontal boundary extending into the center.

I don't mean to make this thread to criticize the validity of any meteorological agency, it is just a question that I have wondered as it is common for NHC to adjust upward peak intensities post-operationally or add storms in re-analysis that were not considered tropical at the time- and was wondering if the reverse has ever happened.
All posts by Dean_175 are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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