Global model runs discussion

[floridasun78]

ncep ensemble base probability of tc genesis show we see action by 120 hour to 240 hour someonr post it facebook but cannot find it on web

[gatorcane]

Several 18Z GFS Ensembles are showing lowering pressures in the Bahamas at 228 hours, in the same general area that subtropical storm Ana formed a few weeks ago:

[floridasun78]

this lastest Genesis Probabilities want up last one

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF on board with development for the first time in it's long-range prediction but further east than the GFS. ECMWF is the first graphic and GFS in the second.

[floridasun78]

we need see what other run show

[gatorcane]

Well the 12Z GFS run shows some possible development of this low around Florida so has shifted west in this run, still way out the 250+ hour range. Let's see if the ECMWF still continues with development and where it has the low developing this run.

[gatorcane]

Ana redux (though stronger)?

12Z GFS:

[emeraldislenc]

It will be interesting to see what happens!

[Hurricaneman]

It will be interesting to see what happens!

it's still in fantasy range but it did nail Ana a few weeks ago so who knows but its still doing the phantom storm of the Caribbean it always seems to do as that's been completely dropped a day or 2 ago

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS has moved up development to between 204hrs and 210hrs and landfalls in South Carolina at 234hrs as a 1005mb tropical storm so its still in fantasy range but if development keeps moving up we might have something to watch

[xcool22]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 1h1 hour ago
MJO amplifying to Phase 1/2 interesting for week 2 in Atlc. Will be watching GOM w/Nino base state/some ens agreement

[floridasun78]

this lastest one

[gatorcane]

The GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement on some kind of weak low or trough impacting Florida in about 8-10 days from now:

GFS:


ECMWF

[Hurricaneman]

thge 6zGFS shows something forminh in the yucatan straits and moving NE across Florida and making a second landfall in South Carolina at 216 so its starting to get in range where we might have to watch the NW Caribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS continues to show the low forming near Florida and is bringing the timeframe in. 12Z GEM shows a low near Florida too. With the ECMWF showing the low, it does appear some kind of low might form in the vicinity of Florida next week.

Also note storm in the BOC on the 12Z GFS long-range. Looks like a crossover system from the EPAC. Not what Texans want to see at this point:

[MiamiensisWx]

And also the 18zGFS would be quite wet and windy for OBX but as always this is in fantasy range and one thing I take away from this is sometime next week something may form in the southern Bahamas

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I wouldn't really focus even on the formative region based on one run. I would go with a combination of runs, but in the short to medium range, of course.

[HURRICANELONNY]

So true MWX. From what I'm reading it just a trough or surge in moisture next week.

Low pressure trough is poised to lift northward
toward South Florida by late Tuesday...and is forecast to remain
in the vicinity into late week. This will result in surging precipitable water
values and more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
Potential exists for some significant rainfall along with flood
risk.

[gatorcane]

ECMWF and GEM most bullish right now for something to form east of the Bahamas, GEFS has it in the NW Carib / Gulf and weaker.

[BigA]

To be fair, the maps above are a comparison between deterministic runs (GEM, ECMWF) and the ensemble-mean of the GEFS ensemble. Sorry if this is nitpicking.

It does look like there is decent consensus that there will be a trough of low pressure in the Western Caribbean in the 6-7 day time frame that will move out of the Caribbean into either the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the southwest Atlantic. As usual this time of year, the amount of shear will be a major factor. Most of the models show a strong shear axis located to the north and northwest of whatever comes out of the Caribbean. How this impacts development prospects is not yet knowable with anything near certainty.

[tropicwatch]

There is a surface low in the Western Atlantic east of the Bahama's. Could this be what the models are picking up on?