SPAC:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F(93P or 91P?)

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yulou
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SPAC:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F(93P or 91P?)

#1 Postby yulou » Mon Jan 30, 2012 4:46 am

will it annex 07F?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 170.6E AT
300600UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 TO 30
KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. OVERALL
ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEPRESSION LIES
TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
SHEAR. SST IS AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON BOTH TD07F AND TD09F WILL
BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 301400UTC.
Last edited by yulou on Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Extratropical94
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#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:24 am

Well, he most certainly asked if the two systems (07F and 09F) could merge or if the stronger system could absorb and "eat" the other, weaker one.
They are quite close together so an absorption or an "annexion" isn't that unlikely.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 30, 2012 4:17 pm

Image

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/2010 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 171.8E AT
301800UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL
ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEPRESSION
LIES DOWNSTREAM OF 250HPA TROUGH AND UNDER THE LEFT HAND ENTRANCE OF
THE JET. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND IS
MOVING INTO A REGION OF DECREASING SHEAR. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM
AND MOVING IT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON BOTH TD07F AND TD09F WILL
BE ISSUED AT ORAROUND 310200UTC.
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#4 Postby yulou » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:47 pm

WHAT A MESS!
could somebody tell me,which is 91P and which is 93P?
93PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-16.1S-163.3E
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 164.6E AT
310000 UTC.

91PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-18.3S-174.8E
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 173.5E AT
310000UTC.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:54 pm

07F - 93P

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 164.6E

93PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-161S-1633E.100pc.jpg

---------------------------------------

09F - 91P

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 173.5E

91PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-183S-1748E.100pc.jpg
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#6 Postby yulou » Tue Jan 31, 2012 3:27 am

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0816 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 172.6E AT 310600
UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIGICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ORGANISATION IS POOR FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM LIES IN A
REGION OF HIGH SHEAR AND IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SST.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND IS WEAKENING IT.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
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