SPO: JASMINE - Tropical Cyclone (10P)

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SPO: JASMINE - Tropical Cyclone (10P)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:57 pm

Image

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Wednesday the 1st of February 2012 and valid until end
of Saturday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea
and is expected to develop further over the next few days. A weak low currently
sits over eastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters and is forecast to move east into
the Coral Sea late in the week. The low is forecast to develop further over the
Coral Sea and continue to move east, away from the Queensland coast, into the
weekend. If this low does become a tropical cyclone it is unlikely to have any
significant impacts along the Queensland coast.

Thursday: Very low
Friday: Moderate
Saturday: Moderate

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Last edited by HURAKAN on Wed Feb 15, 2012 5:36 am, edited 3 times in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:58 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2S 139.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 85 NM NORTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND SHOW AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING WITH FLARING
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE
TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE (30+ DEGREES CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS CAPE
YORK PENINSULA AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT EMERGES IN THE CORAL
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 01, 2012 9:17 am

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Latest infrared ... becoming better organized
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 01, 2012 3:32 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
141.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011200Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT
CYCLONIC TURNING SOUTHWEST OF WALLABY ISLAND WITH CENTRAL WINDS OF
20-25 KNOTS, AND 30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS A FEW DEGREES TO THE WEST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA (40 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER)
INDICATE ONLY 10-15 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SLP VALUES AS LOW
AS 994 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS POSITIONED
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH A POINT-SOURCE OF
DIFFLUENCE APPROXIMATELY 12 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THESE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE CREATING MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARDS UNDER THE MONSOONAL FLOW AND EMERGE OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE CORAL SEA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WHEN THE LLCC
EMERGES OVER THE CORAL SEA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 01, 2012 9:19 pm

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Latest visible
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Re: SPO: INVEST 95P

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 01, 2012 11:37 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Thursday the 2nd of February 2012 and valid until end of
Sunday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea
and is expected to develop further over the next few days. A weak low currently
sits over northern Queensland, east of Kowanyama, and is forecast to move east
into the Coral Sea on Friday. The low is forecast to develop further over the
Coral Sea and continue to move east-southeast, away from the Queensland coast,
into the weekend. If this low does become a tropical cyclone it is unlikely to
have any significant impact along the Queensland coast.

Friday: Moderate
Saturday: High
Sunday: High

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 02, 2012 9:29 am

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Latest infrared
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 02, 2012 10:01 pm

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WTPS21 PGTW 022000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0S 145.8E TO 19.5S 154.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY,
SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA AT 021930Z, INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
142.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER NORTHERN
QUEENSLAND. RECENT 512 KM COMPOSITE RADAR FROM CAIRNS INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CAIRNS. A 021139Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS VERY TIGHT TROUGHING ALONG THE
COAST WITH 20 KNOT NORTHWESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. FURTHER EXAMINATION
OF THE 512 KM COMPOSITE RADAR FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, ALONG WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COEN AIRPORT SHOWING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN QUEENSLAND MAY BE
A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. 022000Z SURFACE PRESSURE REPORTS FROM
COOKTOWN (CLOSEST TO THE LLCC) ARE 993 MB WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST WEST OF A POINT-SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND NEARLY UNDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
WEAK AT 05-10 KNOTS AND THERE IS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. DUE TO
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS OVER THE
CORAL SEA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032000Z.//
NNNN
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 02, 2012 10:02 pm

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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 02, 2012 11:43 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Friday the 3rd of February 2012 and valid until end of
Monday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea
while a weak low currently sits over the northwest Coral Sea, about 200km
east-northeast of Cairns. The low is forecast to move east-southeast across the
Coral Sea and be east of 160E by late Sunday. The low may develop slightly over
the next couple of days. Even if this low does become a tropical cyclone it is
unlikely to have any significant impact along the Queensland coast.

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Very Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:22 am

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Convection increasing near or over the center
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:21 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 8:15pm EST on Friday the 3rd of February 2012 and valid until end of
Monday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At 8pm Friday the monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the
northern Coral Sea while a weak low currently sits over the northwest Coral Sea,
about 350km east of Cairns. The low is forecast to move east-southeast across
the Coral Sea and be east of 160E by late Sunday. The low may develop over the
next couple of days. Even if this low does become a tropical cyclone it is
unlikely to have any significant impact along the Queensland coast.

Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Very Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:41 pm

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latest visible, looking better organized
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 04, 2012 9:14 am

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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1259 UTC 04/02/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.9S
Longitude: 150.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: northeast [055 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 05/0000: 17.1S 152.5E: 060 [110]: 050 [095]: 980
+24: 05/1200: 17.0S 154.4E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 980
+36: 06/0000: 17.1S 157.1E: 120 [225]: 055 [100]: 977
+48: 06/1200: 17.2S 159.4E: 155 [285]: 060 [110]: 973
+60: 07/0000: 17.3S 162.2E: 200 [375]: 060 [110]: 974
+72: 07/1200: 17.3S 164.8E: 250 [465]: 060 [110]: 974
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone centre position confident as system within Willis Island radar.
Convection has flared near the LLCC suggesting lowering shear and increasing
organisation, though most of the convection still remains to the west of the
system. Strongest winds remain to the north of the system with consistent Willis
Island observations of 45 knots. Favourable upper divergence and wind shear
indicating gradual intensification probable over the next 48 hours. The system
has increased its easterly movement over the past few hours and is expected to
continue moving to the east.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 04, 2012 9:15 am

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SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
WTPS31 PGTW 040900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.4S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.5S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.5S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.4S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.5S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.1S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.9S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 150.6E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 031951Z
FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 032000 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 04, 2012 10:26 am

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Latest infrared
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#17 Postby Chacor » Sat Feb 04, 2012 4:29 pm

AXAU22 ABRF 041904
IDQ20068
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1904 UTC 04/02/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.9S
Longitude: 151.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 05/0600: 17.0S 154.0E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 981
+24: 05/1800: 16.9S 156.3E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 978
+36: 06/0600: 17.0S 158.9E: 120 [225]: 060 [110]: 978
+48: 06/1800: 17.3S 161.6E: 155 [285]: 060 [110]: 978
+60: 07/0600: 17.6S 164.2E: 200 [375]: 065 [120]: 974
+72: 07/1800: 18.2S 166.4E: 250 [465]: 065 [120]: 971
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone centre position based on Willis Island radar. Deep convection
persists to the west of the LLCC, however showing weak organisation. Strongest
winds remain to the north of the system. Favourable upper level divergence and
decreasing wind shear may lead to gradual intensification over the next 48
hours. The system has increased its easterly movement over the past few hours
and is expected to continue moving to the east.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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Re: SPO: JASMINE - Tropical Cyclone (10P)

#18 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 04, 2012 9:59 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0056 UTC 05/02/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.2S
Longitude: 152.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [114 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: 3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 05/1200: 17.2S 154.7E: 060 [110]: 060 [110]: 975
+24: 06/0000: 17.2S 157.1E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 976
+36: 06/1200: 17.5S 159.7E: 120 [225]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 07/0000: 17.7S 162.2E: 155 [285]: 065 [120]: 972
+60: 07/1200: 17.9S 164.7E: 200 [375]: 065 [120]: 972
+72: 08/0000: 18.7S 166.9E: 250 [465]: 065 [120]: 969
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone centre position based on Visible imagery, showing deep
convection located to the west of the low level circulation centre. System
organisation continues to improve under a favourable upper level diffulent
pattern. Jasmine is expected to gradually intensify over the next 48 hours due
to moderate deep layer shear while continuing to move eastwards.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.


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HURAKAN
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Re: SPO: JASMINE - Tropical Cyclone (10P)

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Feb 04, 2012 9:59 pm

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#20 Postby Chacor » Sun Feb 05, 2012 7:22 am

0600:
AXAU22 ABRF 050641
IDQ20068
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0641 UTC 05/02/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.2S
Longitude: 154.1E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 983 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 05/1800: 17.1S 156.2E: 075 [140]: 060 [110]: 975
+24: 06/0600: 17.3S 158.6E: 105 [195]: 065 [120]: 972
+36: 06/1800: 17.5S 161.0E: 140 [255]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 07/0600: 17.8S 163.0E: 170 [315]: 065 [120]: 972
+60: 07/1800: 18.2S 165.4E: 220 [405]: 065 [120]: 970
+72: 08/0600: 19.0S 167.0E: 265 [490]: 065 [120]: 968
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone centre position based on Visible imagery, showing deep
convection located to the west of the low level circulation centre. System
organisation continues to improve under a favourable upper level diffulent
pattern. Jasmine is expected to gradually intensify over the next 48 hours due
to moderate deep layer shear while continuing to move eastwards.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.


1200 UTC bulletin should be out soon.
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