WPAC: INVEST 95W

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StormingB81
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WPAC: INVEST 95W

#1 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Mar 19, 2012 5:58 pm

Located at 5N and 148E. I would put a photo up but I have the red "X" I am guessing it is my wonderful internet out here!
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Re: WPAC: Invest 95w

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:02 pm

Image here.

Image
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#3 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Mar 19, 2012 6:09 pm

Thank you Cyclone!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Tue Mar 20, 2012 12:38 am

Image

Image
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#5 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Mar 20, 2012 11:08 pm

NOGAPS really pull for this one going in to the middle of next week developing it up in to something fairly strong, still long rang though...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#6 Postby wxman57 » Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:20 am

Development looks extremely unlikely.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Wed Mar 21, 2012 6:55 pm

Image

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N
146.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.2N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 202309Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY AND WEAK CENTRAL WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu Mar 22, 2012 8:54 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.2N
146.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.2N 143.8E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 212352Z SSMIS IMAGES REVEALS AN ABUNDANCE OF
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL BANDING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE 220000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE LLCC WELL SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. POLEWARD MOVEMENT
WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM UNDER A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LLCC IS TRACKING DUE WEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#9 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:42 pm

I guess the one hinted by ECM to develop into a at least TS in SCS is this one. If it will cross PI and manage to survive, it can get itself together. And if I'm not mistaken ECM is hinting 2 closed low pressure systems now. I know it's long range but when models do hint something and get quite consistent it just sets the mood on action, I guess I will start to monitor the basin next week. Too early for this season.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sat Mar 24, 2012 10:38 pm

Image

widespread activity south of the marianas.
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