WPAC: INVEST 93W

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N 132.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION. A 181152Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS)
AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SURPRESSING OUTFLOW NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

[cycloneye]

Remains low.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N
132.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
CONTAINED MAINLY AROUND THE PERIPHERIES. THE MOST RECENT FLARE OF
CENTRALIZED CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE COLLAPSING AS CLOUD TOPS ARE
WARMING DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM. A 190029Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS
INDICATES 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. A
190028Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS WEAK LLCC STRUCTURE WITH BROADLY TURNING,
DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE LLCC TO BE WELL EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT
CELL, NORTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS THEREFORE OCCURRING WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC. WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 10-15 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO THE POOR UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND PROXIMITY TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.