EPAC: INVEST 93E

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

euro develops this into a hurricane...

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep932012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206091428
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 93, 2012, DB, O, 2012060912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP932012
EP, 93, 2012060812, , BEST, 0, 88N, 1051W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012060818, , BEST, 0, 89N, 1054W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012060900, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1058W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012060906, , BEST, 0, 91N, 1066W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2012060912, , BEST, 0, 92N, 1076W, 20, 1009, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

SHIP is bullish and track is away from Mexico.


WHXX01 KMIA 091431
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1431 UTC SAT JUN 9 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932012) 20120609 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120609 1200 120610 0000 120610 1200 120611 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.2N 107.6W 9.5N 108.7W 9.7N 109.8W 10.1N 111.3W
BAMD 9.2N 107.6W 9.6N 109.3W 10.0N 111.1W 10.7N 113.2W
BAMM 9.2N 107.6W 9.5N 109.0W 9.7N 110.5W 10.3N 112.2W
LBAR 9.2N 107.6W 9.6N 109.1W 10.1N 111.2W 10.6N 113.8W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120611 1200 120612 1200 120613 1200 120614 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 112.9W 11.8N 116.9W 12.9N 120.8W 13.0N 124.8W
BAMD 11.3N 115.3W 12.1N 119.8W 11.3N 123.7W 9.1N 126.9W
BAMM 10.8N 114.1W 11.4N 118.1W 11.4N 121.2W 11.0N 123.9W
LBAR 11.2N 116.7W 12.3N 123.1W 11.7N 127.5W 11.1N 126.7W
SHIP 52KTS 63KTS 67KTS 68KTS
DSHP 52KTS 63KTS 67KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.2N LONCUR = 107.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 105.8W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 105.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

Will likely affect that fish only. Still something to watch.

[Kingarabian]

Could be our 1st Basin crosser.

[Cyclenall]

I don't need a disclaimer for this right?:

My confidence is growing quickly that Invest 93E will become TS Carlotta and maybe soon. The GFS I believe was the only model to pick this up in one of its eariler runs (that system that was near 130ºW) so kudos to the improved GFS. I'm amazed how fast this one came, I randomly checked the Epac IR and found a nice system. I would love to see this track just north enough so it disconnects itself from the ITCZ but not north enough so that it gets into cooler waters. Its actually in a favorable spot currently with TCHP to aid in its formation. The latest TWD from the NHC agrees:

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 09N105W SITS EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH JUST
SE UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 15N109W. GOOD ANTICYCLONIC TURNING
ALLOWS LOW PRES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AT LOWER
LEVELS...LIFT IT WITH NUMEROUS DEEP STRONG CONVECTION AND
OUTFLOW IT AT UPPER LEVELS. STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE
ON INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL SYSTEM LOW PRES WITHIN 24 HRS WHILE
DYNAMICAL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER...MORE LIKE 72 HRS. BUT BOTH
CAMPS AGREE TO TRACK IT W JUST N OF 10N. PRESENTLY...NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF LOW PRES CENTER
WITH BANDS FORMING WITHIN 240 NM N AND SE.

*Cut*

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT 20N144W FORCES STRONG 100 KT JET CORE
INTO BASIN ALONG 12N W OF 133W. SHARP TROUGH WILL TURN JET N AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ON POSITION ABOVE SURFACE LOW PRES.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SST EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW PRES TO INTENSIFY.

*Cut*

Very bullish discussion from the NHC on that. We'll most likely see future Daniel form in a similar manner to how this one is going. I agreed with the NHC's 30% chance of TC formation eariler and now would increase it to 50% because of the rapid increase in organization (rainbands forming, convection persistent). Its nearing the same heat pocket that was in place when Hurricane Celia reached category 5 strength during June 2010.

euro develops this into a hurricane...

King Euro has "spoken" .

Could be our 1st Basin crosser.

I think those tracks on the image are bogus, I don't know why they are taking it that far north. The GFS did show it approaching the Cpac basin...

[Yellow Evan]

Could be our 1st Basin crosser.

Doubt it, too far west.

[Cyclenall]

Left at 30%:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092337
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

I think this is the first time the NHC said it was getting better organized and then left it at the same %. I don't know why they did that.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, strange indeed.

[Kingarabian]

That means its slowly organizing but not yet over the 30% yet.

[brunota2003]

It means the convection has shown signs of becoming slightly more organized, but they aren't sure enough that it won't poof (ala WPAC's 90W) to increase the % chances. Perhaps there are still some conditions they feel may prevent a TC from forming within 48 hours?

[Cyclenall]

It means the convection has shown signs of becoming slightly more organized, but they aren't sure enough that it won't poof (ala WPAC's 90W) to increase the % chances. Perhaps there are still some conditions they feel may prevent a TC from forming within 48 hours?

Convection has maintained for quite some time and there are signs it's becoming curved. The list of things preventing it from forming within 48 hours is small compared to the favorable factors.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 650
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cyclenall]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 650
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

That's better! However, I would have gone up to 60% by now . I love how its movement is west at 10 Mph...perfect. Its structure is improving nicely, lots of curving going on. Low is 1007 mb according to the TWD.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Convection seems to be getting organized. It does look more interesting!

[Kingarabian]

Looks really good. Should be @ 80%.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Sorry about the repeat messages. I'm using tap a talk and I have been getting error messages.

[Extratropical94]

Code Red: 60%

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH