WPAC: INVEST 91W

[climateconcern23]

SE of Guchol.

[euro6208]

seems more organized...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.2N 156.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF FAIRLY DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. A 151004Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A POORLY-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DISCERNIBLE CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 151032Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATED AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER BROAD, DIFFLUENT, SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.2N
156.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.2N 156.5E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A PERSISTENT, LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 152309Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES NO
APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND NO CONSOLIDATION
IN ANY OF THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING IT. A 151401Z OSCAT PASS
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, POORLY- DEFINED LLCC WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND
IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH DIFFLUENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.8N
154.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[euro6208]

2.7N-145.8E

weak...