WPAC: INVEST 96W

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks for the report.

I tossed a video together today mainly on this area. Here you go!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDTlRW9thTI[/youtube]

[dhoeze]

@RobWESTPACWX and oaba09,

Videos, Twitters, Facebook are aslo blocked from our office.
In between work and meetings, I contact MMDA/NDRRMC.

I will try to keep posting for updates.

as of 12 PM (Manila Time)

Updates as of 12PM. Floods already subsided on all the earlier reported roads except for the following:

Manila: Andalucia Laong Laan – ankle deep
Q.C.: V. Luna - waist deep

[dexterlabio]

if this was upgraded to a TD by PAGASA, LGU's, schools and offices would surely close down knowing there is named storm nearby. but really, the rains from a typical TD are the same with this kind of rain from this invest. i dislike the fact that many people decide work suspensions only if there is a storm. hazards are just the same whether or not this disturbance becomes a TC.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N
126.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 74 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN
PHILIPPINES, WHICH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA.
HOWEVER, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES, ALONG WITH
THE 030021Z SSMIS 85 GHZ AND 030136Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGES,
SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED EAST OF
THE MAIN CONVECTION OVER THE LAG DE BAY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN ALL DIRECTIONS OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC, BUT SOME CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF JAPAN. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH A
POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE MAY BE FORMING OVER THE LLCC. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT 05-10
KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT 28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM





looking rather organized as it tracks over the philippines...very deep convection over luzon...

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 021519
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 02/1432Z

C. 13.2N

D. 124.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...96W IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A WELL-DEFINED LLCC EAST OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION, HOWEVER IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. GT 3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

hours ago, 96W reached 2.0 on the dvorak scale...this should at least been upgraded to our 8th tropical depression this year...who knows with dvorak always on the low side, it could have been a tropical storm...






















The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Extratropical94]

TCFA issued:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9N 120.2E TO 18.7N 114.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR
DATA AT 031830Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
15.6N 119.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 122.2E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 119.4E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) AND
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM TAGAYTAY CITY SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS MOVED AND REFORMED OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AS
EVIDENCED BY THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON THE ANIMATED IR. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AT 28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041900Z.

[ManilaTC]

Know what I was monitoring the pressure levels as this Invest gone by yesterday.

I registered a 999MB pressure reading at Camarines Sur yesterday morning and the whole day yesterday on its path the pressure from the weather stations never got higher than 1001MB.

I got out from work at 2pm and there was winds all over (not strong though) and low level clouds were fast moving, that was the time that it was assumed that the LLCC passed Manila.

A tropical depression, that is only my amateur opinion, passed yesterday

[RobWESTPACWX]

Now moving in to the SCS, really lots of lost of convection near the center, but a lot coming in from the south from the SW monsoon, it still has the potentiol to develop on that note.

[weatherguyadonis]

Weather across the Philippines are much settled now. Tropical Disturbance "96W" has weakened further, while JTWC cancelled its previously issued TCFA yesterday. Here's tonight's latest Sat Analysis for WestPac via Westernpacificwx.com

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/da ... -analysis/

[euro6208]

no longer active...