ATL: INVEST 97L

[Aric Dunn]

The ECM is probably about the same speed as the BAM suite, reaches the E.Caribbean by Sunday night, so about 24hrs faster than the current forecasted estimates.

did u read the disscusion. talks about it slowing down

[Cyclenall]

Looks like those BAMS are moving it way too fast. The BAMM one is the perfect track to take it in terms of moving it over the warmest possible waters in the whole basin with the highest TCHP included.

[cycloneye]

looks like we will have to wait for 00z runs

Yeah, GFDL/HWRF didn't run at 18z. That 00z package will be very interesting to see if they pick up this wave.

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[MGC]

I doubt it will develop until 97L reaches the western Caribbean if at all.....MGC

[floridasun78]

time will tell with 97l

[Kingarabian]

No, the TUTT

A wave from last year/analogy.

[Gustywind]

8PM EDT TWD

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N50W TO 6N52W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE E SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 46W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

[cycloneye]

@cycloneye
Please put a link to this thread in your closing post of the Strong Wave East of Windward Islands thread in the same manner that there's a link to that thread in your opening post of this thread. I had emailed a couple folks about this wave and included a link to the now closed Talking Tropics thread. So, it would be great if they could just click a link in your last post there to bring them here.

I also posted the link to this thread at the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread that is at USA & Caribbean Weather forum for the folks from the islands who go there and not come to any place else at Storm2k.

[Cyclenall]

If it survives East Carib and gets on the SW side of the ULL, outflow will be enhanced.

Amazingly, been hanging tough so far.

All the classic signs of a protected pouch.

IMHO, may get a surprise out of this one.

Agree, I would like to see more model support though. Now that its an invest the globals will start picking up on it....looks real good and better than it did a few days ago....

And I agree with you two that this can be a July surprise. I agree with the NHC on 20% formation. Its smallish which might help during tough times.

It's definitely looking weaker than yesterday. Take a look at the MIMIC-TPW loop. Getting elongated and moisture is decreasing. Less rotation, too:

I'm definitely disagreeing with the weaker than yesterday part. At least there is thunderstorm activity around it unlike before which I think helps. If its looking weaker and heading into a "worse" environment, why would the NHC continue increasing the chances?

I'm skeptical the wind shear from the TUTT will harm the system greatly, is it possible it will ventilate it instead like some are suggesting? That alone should be enough not to write it off in the short-term. Shear output from SHIPS:

SHEAR (KT) 4 6 3 4 4 9 13 19 21 30 33 40 37
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 0 0 0 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 102 80 176 214 241 244 257 245 272 255 270 272 273

Is this showing no shear at all? More:

HEAT CONTENT 19 21 28 33 35 44 37 42 44 41 43 58 50

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

[Cyclenall]

Models Intensity:

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2012063000, , BEST, 0, 117N, 475W, 25, 1013, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

00z Bams:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 300036
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC SAT JUN 30 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972012) 20120630 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120630  0000   120630  1200   120701  0000   120701  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.7N  47.5W   11.7N  49.9W   12.1N  52.6W   12.5N  55.9W
BAMD    11.7N  47.5W   12.0N  49.9W   12.4N  52.4W   12.9N  55.2W
BAMM    11.7N  47.5W   11.8N  50.0W   12.1N  52.7W   12.4N  55.8W
LBAR    11.7N  47.5W   11.8N  50.2W   12.2N  53.1W   12.5N  56.5W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          41KTS          47KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          41KTS          47KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120702  0000   120703  0000   120704  0000   120705  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.1N  59.3W   14.8N  66.8W   17.0N  74.7W   18.9N  81.8W
BAMD    13.6N  57.9W   14.9N  63.0W   16.2N  67.3W   17.7N  71.4W
BAMM    13.0N  58.9W   14.4N  65.3W   16.1N  71.6W   17.9N  77.5W
LBAR    12.8N  59.7W   13.0N  65.7W   13.6N  71.1W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        53KTS          59KTS          56KTS          51KTS
DSHP        53KTS          59KTS          56KTS          46KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.7N LONCUR =  47.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  11.6N LONM12 =  45.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  11.5N LONM24 =  43.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[RL3AO]

SHEAR (KT) 4 6 3 4 4 9 13 19 21 30 33 40 37
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 0 0 0 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 102 80 176 214 241 244 257 245 272 255 270 272 273

Is this showing no shear at all? More:

[/quote]

Look at the line above it. Shear is the line that ends in 33, 40, and 37.

[cycloneye]

SHIP 00z run:

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL972012  06/30/12  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    33    37    41    47    53    57    59    57    56    54    51
V (KT) LAND       25    29    33    37    41    47    53    57    59    57    56    54    46
V (KT) LGE mod    25    28    31    34    37    43    49    52    55    55    53    50    42
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         6     3     2     4     6    13    15    19    24    32    32    41    42
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2     0     0    -1    -1    -4    -2    -1    -1     2     0    -1    -4
SHEAR DIR         77   177   186   278   244   257   243   263   263   267   258   280   270
SST (C)         27.1  27.3  27.4  27.6  27.8  28.1  28.2  28.4  28.4  28.1  28.3  28.3  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   125   129   130   133   136   140   141   145   145   140   143   143   142
ADJ. POT. INT.   123   128   130   133   137   143   144   148   147   141   143   140   138
200 MB T (C)   -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     8     9     9     9    11    11    12    12    13    12    14
700-500 MB RH     57    54    53    50    48    50    46    46    48    45    53    48    52
GFS VTEX (KT)      3     2     2     2     2     3     3     4  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    13    11     9    17    20    22    23    17    17     5    33     0     8
200 MB DIV        27    33    26    22     8    13    22     0    26    -4    24    19    44
700-850 TADV      -1     0     0     0     0     4     6    11    15    11     9     6    -3
LAND (KM)        929   857   800   752   725   593   334   322   405   323   168   140   -15
LAT (DEG N)     11.7  11.8  11.8  12.0  12.1  12.4  13.0  13.6  14.4  15.2  16.1  17.0  17.9
LONG(DEG W)     47.5  48.8  50.0  51.4  52.7  55.8  58.9  62.1  65.3  68.4  71.6  74.7  77.5
STM SPEED (KT)    10    12    13    13    14    15    15    16    16    16    16    15    14
HEAT CONTENT      26    27    31    30    38    52    38    45    49    36    50    52    17

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  560  (MEAN=623)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  77.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   2.   6.  11.  18.  23.  27.  31.  33.  35.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   3.   4.   6.   7.   8.   7.   4.  -1.  -5.  -9. -14.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -6.  -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   7.   8.   9.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   8.  12.  16.  22.  28.  32.  34.  32.  31.  29.  26.

   ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012     INVEST 06/30/12  00 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   4.0 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.8
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  12.1 Range: 34.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  23.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 105.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  64.2 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  30.4 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.3
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    42% is   3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    24% is   2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    19% is   3.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    10% is   2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012     INVEST 06/30/2012  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


[floridasun78]

so nhc may drop it 10 PERCENT BY 2AM?

[cycloneye]

HWRF did run after all,but doesn't have anything of significance.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Models Intensity:

http://i49.tinypic.com/aw6ko.png

Can I have a link to these?

[floridasun78]

so do have getting a bit stronger before get weaker may ts over leewards?