ATL: INVEST 95L

[vbhoutex]

Without checking out anything else yet, it does appear that the separation could be occurring. Will be interesting to follow and see what happens. It is still expected to head onshore in N Mexico more than likely last time I saw anything official.

[Javlin]

Without checking out anything else yet, it does appear that the separation could be occurring. Will be interesting to follow and see what happens. It is still expected to head onshore in N Mexico more than likely last time I saw anything official.

You and Rock are right E>W motion for the tropics is generally the rule and another front is not dued for a 5-7 days one would think.

[Stormcenter]

Well let's be honest it's not like there is much out there of any consequence ready to affect any major land areas any time soon.
95L is really the only thing close to home worth watching now at this very moment. IMO

the trof is lifting out and with the high over the Texas this should push whatever left overs from 95L into MX.....wish this thing would leave already...we have to watch 96L.....

[tropicwatch]

95L is kind of in a no mans land as far as steering currents are concerned. It is in between two currents, one that would take south and west, the other north and east.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

[hurricanes1234]

Looks a little better now...cloudtops have cooled.

[Portastorm]

The word "tenacious" comes to mind. This system is still sticking around, despite Bones' contention that it is dead.

[northjaxpro]

No, not time to bring out Bones yet. 95L is still hanging in there, although as mentioned by you guys already it is still in a weak steering environment.
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This post is not official forecast. Just the opinion of this poster. Please refer to the latest products and information from NHC and NWS.

[MGC]

Convection has really increased this morning....the longer this thing hang around the more the chances of something spinning up.....gotta keep an eye on it.....MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[ROCK]

just vomited a huge outflow boundary to the north....nada at the surface....

[Stormcenter]

Now that description (vomited) is funny.

just vomited a huge outflow boundary to the north....nada at the surface....

[Stormcenter]

As others have commented the longer it stays out there the better chance it has to develop. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[monicaei]

Any chance this heads north now that it seems to have broken away from the front?

[ROCK]

Any chance this heads north now that it seems to have broken away from the front?

not with the ridge building in....its either west or NE if it developes.....I still dont see anything at the surface...all in the mid levels...

[tropicwatch]

Hard to say at this point but she is looking a little better.



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[Aric Dunn]

Does appear to have more defined circ now and it can be seen on sat and evidence on long range radar. if it stays offshore long enough pretty sure we will get a td out of it.

[Tampa_God]

Will be surprised if this doesn't get a 50% or higher on the next update. Looks too good to not even be called a TD at the moment, but it matters if there is a LLC there. If anything, there is likely a weak LLC trying to form near 25N 96W.

[uhvjaguars22]

this may develop and possibly head off to the NE with that front stalled in gulf. I dont believe it will just drift west

Just an opinion

[tolakram]

Down to 20%

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE
CENTER OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION HAS MOVED CLOSER TO LAND
TODAY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD.

[LaBreeze]

I was under the impression that 95L was written off - that it had pretty much disolved. I've been away and am just checking the boards now -we never know what MotherNature has up her sleeve. Anyone believe that this may actually develop and if so, in what direction would it head? Thanks in advance.

[hurricanes1234]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think this would develop anymore. Not only because there is dry air everywhere you look - but also because this system doesn't have the looks of an organizing system - cloudtops are warming and there is no well-defined circulation. It looked better a few hours ago, but now, things seem to be deteriorating a bit.