ATL: JOYCE - Models

[Dave]

Model thread for Invest 96L.

[Gustywind]

Model thread for Invest 96L.

Thanks Dave . Models have not begin to work?

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0538 UTC MON AUG 20 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120820 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120820  0000   120820  1200   120821  0000   120821  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.1N  21.4W   12.1N  23.4W   12.5N  25.8W   13.0N  28.5W
BAMD    12.1N  21.4W   12.2N  23.4W   12.9N  25.5W   13.9N  27.8W
BAMM    12.1N  21.4W   12.3N  23.4W   12.8N  25.6W   13.6N  28.1W
LBAR    12.1N  21.4W   11.8N  24.2W   12.4N  27.3W   13.0N  30.4W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120822  0000   120823  0000   120824  0000   120825  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.4N  31.4W   14.2N  37.7W   15.3N  44.4W   17.0N  51.3W
BAMD    15.0N  30.1W   17.2N  34.3W   18.9N  38.0W   20.1N  41.0W
BAMM    14.5N  30.7W   16.2N  36.0W   17.8N  41.0W   19.4N  45.6W
LBAR    14.0N  33.4W   16.5N  38.7W   19.0N  42.6W   11.4N  46.8W
SHIP        47KTS          49KTS          49KTS          46KTS
DSHP        47KTS          49KTS          49KTS          46KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.1N LONCUR =  21.4W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  12.9N LONM12 =  18.5W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  13.7N LONM24 =  15.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
WHXX01 KWBC 200121



These were the first tracks of the first run at 00z.

[OURAGAN]

May be an other closed call for the lesser antilles

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC MON AUG 20 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120820 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120820  1200   120821  0000   120821  1200   120822  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.7N  25.5W   12.7N  28.0W   12.7N  30.7W   12.8N  33.7W
BAMD    12.7N  25.5W   13.0N  27.4W   13.8N  29.5W   14.7N  31.7W
BAMM    12.7N  25.5W   13.0N  27.7W   13.5N  30.1W   14.1N  32.6W
LBAR    12.7N  25.5W   13.0N  28.5W   13.5N  31.8W   14.1N  35.1W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          37KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          32KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120822  1200   120823  1200   120824  1200   120825  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  36.8W   13.1N  42.8W   13.6N  48.3W   14.7N  53.6W
BAMD    15.8N  33.9W   18.1N  37.7W   20.4N  41.2W   23.0N  44.4W
BAMM    14.7N  35.2W   16.2N  40.0W   17.7N  44.9W   20.1N  50.2W
LBAR    14.9N  38.2W   17.7N  43.3W   21.2N  46.4W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        41KTS          43KTS          38KTS          32KTS
DSHP        41KTS          43KTS          38KTS          32KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.7N LONCUR =  25.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  12.5N LONM12 =  21.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  12.5N LONM24 =  18.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Dave]

Model thread for Invest 96L.

Thanks Dave . Models have not begin to work?

Sorry Gusty, I just got the thread started and had to run, didn't have time to do anything else....Thanks Cycloneye for picking it up.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, this is an all-or-nothing storm. Its major hinderance (or help) is 94L and what it does I think. It could either shear and upwell it up, or clear the dry air. What 94L does, I think 96L will NOT do.

[Gustywind]

Model thread for Invest 96L.

Thanks Dave . Models have not begin to work?

Sorry Gusty, I just got the thread started and had to run, didn't have time to do anything else....Thanks Cycloneye for picking it up.

no probleme, yeah we have our Superman Cycloneye he's faster than a lightning , excellent job analysis as usual,a pleasure . Gracias al hombre de la isla del encanto

[Riptide]

The GFS and Euro don't like 96L for some reason, but we must believe them because they have been doing well with intensity; only unknown variable is the long-range factor and overall decrease of accuracy. Mabye when 94L gets out of the way...

[CrazyC83]

SHIPS likes it a bit more now...but not nearly as much as 94, which I find odd due to the SAL removal.

WHXX01 KWBC 210057
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0057 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120821 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120821 0000 120821 1200 120822 0000 120822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 27.1W 10.6N 28.7W 11.3N 30.5W 12.1N 32.7W
BAMD 10.3N 27.1W 10.8N 28.8W 11.8N 30.7W 13.0N 32.6W
BAMM 10.3N 27.1W 10.8N 28.9W 11.7N 30.7W 12.7N 32.9W
LBAR 10.3N 27.1W 10.7N 29.6W 11.6N 32.4W 12.8N 35.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120823 0000 120824 0000 120825 0000 120826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 34.8W 14.4N 39.6W 15.5N 45.2W 17.1N 51.5W
BAMD 14.3N 34.6W 16.5N 38.5W 18.1N 42.9W 20.2N 47.3W
BAMM 13.8N 35.1W 15.6N 39.7W 16.9N 45.2W 19.1N 50.8W
LBAR 14.2N 38.1W 16.8N 43.2W 19.0N 46.7W 19.6N 49.5W
SHIP 46KTS 51KTS 50KTS 46KTS
DSHP 46KTS 51KTS 50KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 27.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 24.9W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 22.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[brunota2003]

Still only up to 50 knots...which is where it was at for the 20/00Z runs.

[CrazyC83]

Still only up to 50 knots...which is where it was at for the 20/00Z runs.

I think they believe an intense 94L will shear this one apart, which seems reasonable. But if 94L fails to get going, this one I think could become a very intense storm.

[brunota2003]

Still only up to 50 knots...which is where it was at for the 20/00Z runs.

I think they believe an intense 94L will shear this one apart, which seems reasonable. But if 94L fails to get going, this one I think could become a very intense storm.

If it is at the right distance, an intense 94L could even help 96L, couldn't it?

[AJC3]

Still only up to 50 knots...which is where it was at for the 20/00Z runs.

I think they believe an intense 94L will shear this one apart, which seems reasonable. But if 94L fails to get going, this one I think could become a very intense storm.

If it is at the right distance, an intense 94L could even help 96L, couldn't it?

This can happen with the right spacing, What you would need is either a fairly large 200MB anticyclone to bridge both systems, or sufficient space* for a fairly compact 200 MB low to form in between the two systems and become a mass sink for the outflow from the lead system, while actually venting helping to vent the trailing system on its divergent east side.

*I want to say it has to be about 15-20 degrees longitude.

See Supertyphoons Joan and Ivan of 1997 for an extreme example of simultaneous, intense TC's cohabitating about 20 degrees apart,

[Cyclenall]

Still only up to 50 knots...which is where it was at for the 20/00Z runs.

I think they believe an intense 94L will shear this one apart, which seems reasonable. But if 94L fails to get going, this one I think could become a very intense storm.

This doesn't make sense, the two systems aren't near each other so the chances of one of them shearing apart because of the other is unbelievably low, in fact the chances are becoming lower every minute. This idea that these two Invests are highly dependent on each other for a future outcome is not one that is reasonable IMO.

[Solaris]

This storm is definitely one to keep an eye on. It will cause a lot of damage if it keeps on the predicted path and strenghtens accordingly

[adam0983]

Does anyone see any of the models shifting away from Florida?

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 211247
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120821 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120821  1200   120822  0000   120822  1200   120823  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.3N  30.5W   10.8N  32.0W   11.6N  33.8W   12.7N  35.7W
BAMD    10.3N  30.5W   10.7N  32.4W   11.6N  34.3W   12.9N  36.1W
BAMM    10.3N  30.5W   10.8N  32.4W   11.6N  34.3W   12.8N  36.3W
LBAR    10.3N  30.5W   10.8N  33.2W   11.7N  36.1W   12.9N  39.0W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          48KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          40KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120823  1200   120824  1200   120825  1200   120826  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.8N  37.9W   15.6N  43.0W   17.7N  49.4W   20.4N  56.3W
BAMD    14.3N  38.0W   17.0N  42.6W   20.1N  47.5W   24.8N  52.2W
BAMM    14.1N  38.4W   16.3N  43.2W   18.9N  49.2W   22.3N  55.2W
LBAR    14.2N  42.0W   16.6N  46.9W   19.5N  50.8W   18.4N  54.9W
SHIP        55KTS          64KTS          63KTS          60KTS
DSHP        55KTS          64KTS          63KTS          60KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.3N LONCUR =  30.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  10.2N LONM12 =  27.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  10.3N LONM24 =  24.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[CrazyC83]

I still don't buy the recurve on this one...is the ridge supposed to retreat so much?

[fci]

Seems to me when a storm "follows" a developing storm in front of it; the 2nd storm either dies or is a Fish Storm. I see 96L having this fate.
Maybe there is upwelling or a weakness created, but I seem to remember this happening time after time.

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